(Economic Observation) Withstanding multiple shocks, China's economy continues to recover steadily

　　China News Agency, Beijing, August 16 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Heavy rainfall in Henan and other places, epidemics spread in many provinces, and external uncertainties increased... In the past July, China's economy has suffered multiple shocks.

Under this circumstance, can the momentum of economic recovery continue?

　　At the press conference of the State Council Information Office held on the 16th, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China, said bluntly that in a single month in July, it faced high temperatures, heavy rains, and local epidemics in some areas, and some consumer sectors and service industries grew slightly. slow.

In some regions, such as Henan, Jiangsu, Hunan and other places, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has fallen to varying degrees from the previous month.

The growth rate of some contact-type agglomeration industries, such as wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, has also fallen from last month.

　　The impact brought by multiple factors should not be ignored, but if you zoom out, from the perspective of the cumulative value, the current major macro indicators are still in a reasonable range.

　　For example, on the production side, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to July increased by 14.4% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 6.7% over the two years, continuing to maintain rapid growth; the overall agricultural situation was stable, and summer grain harvests were achieved.

On the demand side, the total retail sales of consumer goods from January to July increased by 20.7% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 4.3%, remaining basically stable; imports and exports during the same period grew rapidly, and the total volume of goods imports and exports from January to July increased by 24.5% year-on-year. The average increase was 10.6%.

　　In addition, the people's livelihood indicators related to the "bottom line" of development are generally stable.

From January to July, the number of new jobs in cities and towns across the country reached 8.22 million, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, and consumer prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year.

The new kinetic energy to expand the space for the development of the "cap" is also increasing.

From January to July, the added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 21.5% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 13.1%; the high-tech industry investment increased by 20.7% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 14.2%.

　　Accordingly, Fu Linghui pointed out that in the face of multiple shocks, China's economic growth level is in line with expectations, employment prices are generally stable, the international balance of payments is basically balanced, the main macro indicators are in a reasonable range, and the national economy continues to stabilize and recover.

　　A series of signs show that the current Chinese economy is still on the path of recovery.

But in the face of the epidemic and flood disasters, is there any guarantee that the annual economic growth target will be achieved?

　　Fu Linghui pointed out that China's economy was affected by the epidemic last year, and the overall trend was low and high.

Affected by the base number, this year's main economic growth rate will show a state of high and low.

On the whole, China's economy will maintain a stable recovery trend in the second half of the year, the main macro indicators will remain within a reasonable range, and the quality of development will continue to improve.

　　He further analyzed that from the perspective of the "troika" driving economic growth, as residents' income increases and the consumption environment improves in the second half of the year, residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up; this year is the first year of the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan". The construction of some major projects in the Fourth Five-Year Plan has been started one after another, and manufacturing investment will continue to pick up; the overall recovery of the world economy and the improvement of the global economic and trade environment are also conducive to China's import and export growth.

　　According to Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, it is not a problem for China to achieve a growth target of more than 6% this year.

However, next year's economic growth pressure will rise as the base rises. Therefore, macroeconomic policies must do a good job in cross-cyclical adjustment and policy convergence.

　　He suggested that we should continue to increase efforts to boost domestic demand, further tap consumption growth points, moderately accelerate the pace of local government special bond issuance, accelerate the construction of major engineering projects, and give play to the role of infrastructure investment in stabilizing investment and growth.

At the same time, it is necessary to balance the relationship between stable growth and risk prevention, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, refrain from flooding, and be prepared to respond to the early shift of the Fed's monetary policy.

　　Tang Jianwei, the chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that as the extreme weather subsides, the impact on China's economic operation will decrease.

However, there is uncertainty about the epidemic, and domestic and foreign demand may be affected. The macro policy will continue to maintain a certain degree of strength in the second half of the year.

Monetary policy is expected to remain stable and loose adjustments.

(Finish)