(Economic Observation) Why does the price of Chinese eggs soar by about 20% in a month?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, August 16th (Reporter Chen Su) In the past month, the price of Chinese eggs has started to soar, from about 5 yuan (RMB, the same below) per jin on weekdays to more than 6 yuan per jin in the near future. Recently, the price of eggs in some vegetable markets in Beijing has even reached 6.5 yuan/jin.

What happened to the soaring price of eggs this round?

Employees work in the egg processing workshop.

China News Agency reporter Zhang Yuanshe

　　Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that the recent increase in egg prices is mainly due to seasonal reasons.

　　“Due to the hot weather in summer, egg production is usually the lowest time of the year, so egg prices will rise every summer.” Li Guoxiang said that low summer production is the main reason for this round of egg price increases.

　　Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China show that on July 12, the average price of eggs in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 9.09 yuan/kg, and by August 11, the price of eggs rose to 10.72 yuan/kg.

Although the price of eggs fluctuates every summer, the increase in this round is even more pronounced. Analysts believe that in addition to seasonal factors, there are also some temporary and cyclical factors.

　　Some analysts pointed out that Henan and other places in China suffered severe floods this summer, and some egg production areas were affected. The epidemic in late July and early August also had a certain impact on the purchase of feed and cross-regional transportation, which indirectly affected the supply capacity of eggs. .

In addition, as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, many factories have begun to produce moon cakes. As a common material for moon cakes, the demand for eggs has also increased.

　　Li Guoxiang said that in the past few years, the price of eggs in China has been low, and many farmers have suffered losses, resulting in a decrease in the number of chickens raised and a decrease in supply. This is also a cyclical factor in the recent rise in egg prices.

In addition, as the prices of corn and soybean meal have risen, the price of chicken feed has risen by about 50%, which has increased the cost of raising chickens.

　　Looking ahead, will egg prices continue to rise?

　　Li Guoxiang said that the current price of eggs is very high, and selling eggs is very profitable, but this profit period is expected to be short. There are three reasons: first, summer is about to pass, usually after autumn turns cooler, egg production will increase and egg production will recover. The price of eggs will also be lowered accordingly. Second, the current increase in egg prices will prompt farmers to expand production, and later production will further increase. Third, the supply of domestic and international corn and other feed grains is good this year. This year, China’s corn planting area will expand. With the bumper harvest of autumn grains and the loose supply of corn in the world, the cost of chicken feed is expected to drop.

　　According to the forecast of the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China’s corn planting area will be approximately 640 million mu in 2021-2022, an increase of 21.09 million mu or 3.4% over the previous year; the total corn output is expected to be 272 million tons, an increase of 4.3 over the previous year. %.

At the same time, China has also increased corn imports. According to customs data, in June 2021, China imported 3.571 million tons of corn, up 13.20% month-on-month and 305.09% year-on-year.

　　In terms of international supply, the corn-producing areas of the United States, a major corn-producing country, ushered in rainfall, which eased the drought problem. It is expected that a bumper corn harvest will be obtained this year.

　　"The production cycle of chicken raising is different from pig raising. The efficiency of raising chickens is very high, and the effects of national regulation can quickly appear. Under the condition of obvious price increases, the production can be adjusted quickly to increase supply and stabilize excessive prices." Li Guoxiang Say.

(Finish)