The GDP announced today will reveal how much production and consumption has taken place in Japan during the three months from April to June, and how much the economy has grown as a whole.
During this period, consumption such as shopping and travel is originally active due to the new semester and long holidays, but the third state of emergency was declared due to the spread of infection by the mutant virus, and consumption continues to be severe. Was there.
This graph is the result of a survey that looks at consumption trends based on credit card usage information.
Compared to two years before the spread of the infection, it can be seen that "service consumption", including transportation, travel, and eating out, has continued to decline.
"Online mail order" has grown significantly due to the tailwind of so-called nesting consumption, and overall "consumption of goods" has exceeded two years ago, but it was not possible to make up for the decline in service consumption, and overall consumption remained sluggish. It remains.
Let's take a closer look at the current state of "service consumption".
Number of guests at hotels and inns
This is the number of guests staying at hotels and inns in Japan.
Compared to 2019 to eliminate the impact of corona.
Severe conditions continue from April to June.
Eating out is becoming more polarized.
Assuming that January last year before the spread of the infection was 100, the value for June was stable at 96 for fast food, which is favorable for take-out and home delivery, while it was large at 16.3 for pubs and pubs where the suspension of alcoholic beverages was requested. I was depressed.
Below 20 is the same level as in May last year when the first state of emergency was declared.
On the other hand, exports are doing well.
Sales of automobiles for the United States and semiconductor manufacturing equipment for China grew significantly, and the export value in June exceeded 7 trillion yen, surpassing that of Corona.
Corporate production activities
Production is also recovering.
The "Indices of Industrial Production", which indicates the production activities of companies, fell to 77.2 in May last year, but due to the increase in overseas and domestic demand, it reached 99.3 in June, which was in line with the level before Corona.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has determined that "production is picking up."
Production growth has spilled over into capital investment.
This is the change in the amount of capital investment planned by the Bank of Japan Tankan companies, which is announced every three months.
In 2020 (blue line), which was affected by the corona, the capital investment plan shrank over time.
The actual result also dropped sharply to minus 8.5% from the previous year.
On the other hand, investment in the manufacturing industry and software increased in this year and 2021 (yellow line), and as of June, it increased significantly to 9.3%.Keywords: