Where did the outflow of 43.87 billion yuan in July household deposits go?

Our reporter Liu Qi

　　On August 11, the July financial data released by the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") showed that RMB deposits decreased by 1.13 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year decrease of 1.21 trillion yuan.

Among them, household deposits decreased by 1.36 trillion yuan.

This also means that in July, an average of over 43.87 billion yuan of resident deposits “outflowed” from banks every day.

So, where did this part of the deposit go?

　　In fact, the decline in household deposits in July is not unique to this year.

A reporter from the Securities Daily checked financial data from 2011 to 2020 and found that household deposits decreased in July every year.

Some bankers said that average daily deposits and time deposits are important performance evaluation indicators for banks, and the time of evaluation is often at the end of the month or the end of the quarter.

With the completion of the quarterly concentrated "impulse", the intensity of collecting deposits will decrease, and the scale of deposits will often fall back one month after the season.

　　"July is the first month of the third quarter, when the pressure on bank deposit appraisal is reduced, and the demand for wealth management and the expansion of wealth management business increases correspondingly, the characteristics of deposit funds transfer are obvious." Tao Tao, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of the Suning Institute of Finance Jin told a reporter from the Securities Daily.

　　Has the deposit flowed to the consumer sector?

In the consumer sector, the purchase of houses can be described as the "big head".

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, told reporters that in terms of the current mentality of residents, the mentality and willingness to buy a house are relatively strong.

Therefore, there will indeed be cases where deposits flow out of banks and enter the real estate market.

　　However, with the tightening of real estate regulation, capital has not flowed into the real estate market on a large scale.

According to a report released by the E-House Real Estate Research Institute, in July, the transaction area of ​​newly-built commercial housing in 40 typical cities monitored by the E-House Research Institute was 27.44 million square meters, down 12.8% from the previous month and 20.4% year-on-year.

According to its previously released second-hand housing market report, in July, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in 13 cities monitored by E-House Research Institute was approximately 69,000 units, a decrease of 14.7% from the previous month, and an increase of 10.8 percentage points from June.

　　"At present, deposits will not flow into the consumer sector on a large scale. Because the increase in consumption depends on income growth and the development of the service industry, under the current situation of fragmented recovery and repeated epidemics, the basic consumption of consumption is stable and there is little room for short-term growth." In Tao Jin's view, this part of the funds will eventually circulate in the financial sector. With the increasing demand for household asset allocation, a considerable proportion of deposits are invested in financial management, funds, and the stock market.

　　Residents’ willingness to invest is greater than their willingness to consume, which can also be confirmed from the survey report on urban depositors in the second quarter of 2021 released by the central bank.

The report shows that in terms of consumption, savings and investment willingness, 25.1% of residents tend to "consume more", while those who tend to "invest more" account for 25.5%.

　　Regarding the deposit trend in the later part of this year, Tao Jin believes that, first of all, with the steady expansion of credit in the future, the distribution funds will also increase, especially in the corporate sector. Accelerate the formation of corporate deposits.

Second, the consumer market continues to recover, but the growth rate may be relatively slow, and the deposits of the residential sector will also increase steadily.

(Securities Daily)