China-Singapore Jingwei Client, August 13 (Xiong Jiali) The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced the CPI data of 31 provinces in July. The CPI growth rate of 14 provinces in July was lower than that of the whole country. Among them, the growth rate of Hunan fell 0.2% year-on-year.

　　In July 2021, the national consumer prices rose by 1% year-on-year, and the rate of increase was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month.

Among them, food prices fell by 3.7%, and non-food prices rose by 2.1%.

Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, mentioned that the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.3% year-on-year in July, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

　　In terms of different provinces, Tibet, Gansu, Jilin, Hubei, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Hunan have 14 provinces with a year-on-year increase in CPI lower than the national average in July.

Among them, Hunan's growth rate was negative, down 0.2% year-on-year.

　　Hebei, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia's CPI increase in July was the same as that of the whole country, both of which were 1%.

The 14 provinces of Tianjin, Jiangsu, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Beijing, Zhejiang, Shandong, Shanghai, Guangdong, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Henan increased in July CPI higher than the national average.

Among them, Tianjin saw the highest increase of 2%.

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, pointed out that the decline in CPI year-on-year growth was mainly due to the fall in food prices.

Food CPI fell 3.7% year-on-year in July, the largest drop since April 2017, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.69 percentage points.

Among them, due to the continuous restoration of the supply of live pigs, the price of pork fell by 43.5%, an increase of 7 percentage points, which was the main factor leading to the continued fall in food prices.

　　Regarding the trend of pig prices, Li Qilin, chief economist of Hongta Securities, analyzed that pork prices have a high probability of bottoming in the short term. On the one hand, the current national pig and food price ratio is near the break-even point of pig breeding, and enterprises have insufficient motivation to expand the scale of pig breeding.

On the other hand, with the consumption of large pigs in the early stage, the decline in the growth rate of the breeding sow stock, and the subsequent recovery of the consumption of live pigs, the oversupply of pork is expected to improve.

Pork on the supermarket shelf.

Photo by Wang Yongle of China-Singapore Jingwei

　　Wang Jingwen, a macro analyst at the Minsheng Bank Research Institute, said that due to the recent resurgence of the epidemic and the tightening of prevention and control, demand will be further suppressed, and the overall demand will decline. The monetary policy is mainly stable, and there is no basis for substantial price increases. The CPI is expected to exceed 2% in the second half of the year. The possibility is unlikely.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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