The question of whether the rise in inflation rates in these months is a temporary phenomenon or the beginning of a trend towards more significant inflation in the longer term does not find a reliable answer, even according to the latest data from Germany and the United States.
A July rate of 5.4 percent in the United States and 3.8 percent in Germany significantly exceeds the long-term average, but a more detailed analysis, particularly of the American data, also clearly shows influences that can and only be explained by the acceleration of economic growth are likely to be effective temporarily.
In the financial markets, as among many economists, the impression is therefore solidifying that the inflation rate is likely to decline again in the coming year.
At the same time, the central bank in Washington is expressing a willingness by leading representatives to gradually reduce its still very extensive bond purchases.
It is high time, too, because a very expansionary monetary policy does not go hand in hand with strong economic growth.
Therefore, even a decline in the inflation rate in the coming months should not create the impression that the dangers to monetary value have been averted.
Episodes are known from history in which inflationary pressures had gradually built up over several years.
In Germany, too, inflation can in part be explained by temporary influences, as a result of which the rate could rise to around 5 percent by the end of the year, before it is likely to decline again a little after the turn of the year.
The data from Germany as well as from Italy, incidentally, show influences on the inflation rate that are unlikely to disappear again anytime soon.
A departure from its very expansionary monetary policy is not yet on the calendar for the ECB.
In the fall, their central bank council will consider the future of bond purchases.
Like their colleagues from Washington, the Frankfurt monetary authorities should gradually reduce the pace.