When will the Japanese economy return to its pre-corona level?

When NHK surveyed 100 major domestic companies, more than 70% of the companies answered "after next year".


The government has indicated that GDP will return to pre-corona levels during the year, but companies are taking a stern view of economic recovery due to the rapid spread of the virus and delays in vaccination. You can see.

From the 21st of last month to the 4th of this month, NHK conducted a survey of 100 major domestic companies and received responses from all companies.



First, when asked about their perceptions of the current state of the domestic economy,


54 companies had the highest number of "flat"


, 1 company had "expansion"


, 39 companies had "moderate expansion", and


3 companies had "gradual recession". ..



When asked multiple answers to the companies that answered "flat",


85.2%

answered

"restrictions on economic activities due to priority measures such as declaration of emergency and prevention of spread


", 83.3%

answered

"

sluggish growth in personal consumption", and


" "Delayed vaccination" was 48.1%.



On the other hand, the reasons for companies that answered "expansion" and "gradual expansion" were


"recovery of the US economy" at 72.5%,


"spread of vaccination" at 55%, and


"recovery of the Chinese economy" at 50%.



When asked when the Japanese economy would return to pre-infection levels,


only 5 companies were in the second half of 2021, while


30 were in the first half of


2022 and 24 were in the second half of 2022.


There were 8 companies in the first half of 2023, 8 companies


in the second half of 2023, and


3 companies in the first half of 2024,


and more than 70% of the companies answered "after next year".



The government has indicated that the economic recovery will begin in earnest as vaccination progresses, and that GDP will return to pre-corona levels during this time. It can be seen that companies are taking a strict view of economic recovery for the reason.



When asked in multiple answers about what is necessary and issues for the recovery of the Japanese economy,


82 companies

answered

"recovery of personal consumption


", 26 companies

answered

"large-scale economic measures by the government", and


"increased capital investment". There were 23 companies and


19 companies that responded to decarbonization.

Clear polarization of corporate performance

While the effects of the new coronavirus are protracted, the performance of Japanese companies from April to June is affected by industries that have been favored by the increase in demand due to the economic recovery of the United States and China and refraining from going out. There is a clear polarization between the industries that have received it.



As announced by Toyota Motor Corporation, the Group's financial results from April to June reached a record high of 897.8 billion yen, which is about 5.6 times the same period of the previous year.



In the United States and China, where the economy is recovering steadily due to the progress of vaccination, the demand for cars is increasing, and the recovery is clear, exceeding the level before the spread of infection.



Since the Sony Group also had strong sales of music distribution due to so-called "needing demand", operating income, which indicates the profit of the main business, increased by more than 26% from the same period of the previous year to 280 billion yen, which is also this. It was the highest time ever.



The final profit also increased by 9% to 211.8 billion yen.



In addition, NYK Line, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Co., Ltd. also have three major shipping companies, and the demand for products used at home has expanded due to Corona, and the amount of luggage carried by ship has increased. It was a record high for this period.



On the other hand, the number of people moving has decreased significantly due to the refraining from going out due to repeated declarations of emergencies, and as a result, business performance in aviation, railroads, retail and eating out continues to decline.



The financial results of the entire group of major airlines ANA Holdings and Japan Airlines both posted a net loss of over 50 billion yen.



JR East also has a net loss of 76.9 billion yen due to the continuing decline in railway users.



In addition, Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings, a major department store, has been in a difficult situation with a final loss of 8.6 billion yen due to the closure of the sales floor following the declaration of an emergency.

Expert "Economic recovery is behind expectations"

Regarding the results of this questionnaire, Mr. Yasuo Yamamoto of the Research Department of Mizuho Research & Research Institute, who is familiar with macroeconomics, said, "The delay in vaccination compared to developed countries in Europe and the United States has greatly affected the business sentiment of companies. There is no doubt that the economic recovery has been delayed from the initial assumptions of the company due to the repeated declarations of emergencies since the start of the survey. "



"Many companies in the manufacturing industry, which have a high export ratio due to the economic recovery in the United States and China, judge that the current economy is recovering, but because domestic personal consumption is very weak due to the state of emergency, eating out It may be judged as "flat" or "slightly backward" mainly in the service industry such as travel and travel and the retail industry. "



Regarding the outlook for economic recovery, "If vaccines spread and infections are resolved, consumption activities will become active, and the economic recovery will begin around October to November, and full-scale recovery will begin in January to March next year. It's likely to be around. "



On top of that, "If it takes time to lift restrictions on economic activities due to the spread of mutant virus infection, the recovery period may be further delayed. The food and beverage and travel industries are already in a situation where their debts are swelling due to financial support. I think that if the recovery of economic activity is delayed, the risk of bankruptcy and business closure will increase. "

Responding companies (in alphabetical order)

IHI,


Asahi Kasei,


Asahi Group Holdings,


Ajinomoto,


Aeon,


Isuzu Motors,


Idemitsu Kosan,


Itochu,


Internet Initiative,


AGC,


ANA Holdings,


SG Holdings,


ENEOS Holdings,


Oji Holdings,


Kao,


Kashima Construction,


Kawasaki Heavy Industries,


Canon,


Kyocera,


Kirin Holdings,


KDDI,


Komatsu,


Cyber ​​Agent,


JFE Holdings,


JTB,


J. Front Retailing,


Shiseido,


Shimizu Construction,


Sharp,


Shosen Mitsui,


Sukairaku Holdings,


Suzuki,


SUBARU,


Sumitomo Chemical,


Sumitomo Metal Mine,


Sumitomo Corporation,


Seibu Holdings,


Z Holdings,


Seven & i Holdings,


Zensho Holdings,


Sony Group,


Daiwa Securities Group Headquarters,


Takeda Pharmaceutical


Company


Limited

,

Chubu Electric Power,

Tsuruha Holdings,


DNA,


Denso,


Tokai Passenger Railway,


Tokio Marine Holdings,


Tokyo Gas,


Tokyo Electric Power Holdings,


Toshiba,


Toray,


Letterpress Printing,


Toyota Motor,


Nissan Motor ,


Nippon Paper,


Nippon Steel,


Nippon Electric,


Nippon Telecom

,

Nippon


Airlines,


Nippon Life Insurance

Company,


Nidec, Nidec


Unisys,


Nintendo,


Nomura Holdings,


Hakuhodo,


Panasonic,


East Japan Passenger Railway,


Hitachi Construction Machinery,


Hitachi,


Big Camera,


Fast Retailing,


Family Mart,


Fujitsu,


Fuji film Holdings,


Bridgestone,


Mazda,


Marelli,


Mizuho Financial group,


Sumitomo Mitsui Financial group,


Mitsui & Co., Ltd.,


Mitsui Fudosan,


Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings,


Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings,


Mitsubishi Motors,


Mitsubishi Heavy Industries,


Mitsubishi Corporation,


Mitsubishi Electric,


Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,


Murata Manufacturing,


Meiji,


Mercari,


Mos Food Service,


Yamato Holdings,


Yamaha Motor,


Uni Charm,


Rakuten Group ,


Recruit Holdings,


Lawson

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