The local epidemic has rebounded, and the steady growth of China's economy has become the focus of attention
Delta mutant strains are coming fiercely.
According to statistics, as of 10:00 on August 8, the number of high-risk areas nationwide has increased to 14 and 197 are medium-risk areas.
Since the local confirmed case of the new crown appeared in Nanjing on July 20, within half a month, the epidemic has spread to about half of China's provinces.
In response, many places have taken corresponding measures to prevent and control the epidemic.
With the rebound of the current round of the epidemic, some market participants worry that the country may face the pressure of slowing domestic and foreign demand in the next few months.
He Qinghua, a first-level inspector of the National Health Commission's Disease Control Bureau, said on the 5th that from the current situation, the overall situation of this round of epidemic is controllable.
However, due to the large scope of this round of epidemic, the wide range of people, and the superposition of local epidemics caused by multiple imported cases from different sources, it has increased the arduousness and complexity of the entire epidemic. However, as long as all localities strictly implement various prevention and control measures, The epidemic can be basically controlled within two to three incubation periods.
Regarding the anti-epidemic measures introduced by various places, Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News that this will inevitably have a certain impact on people-intensive industries such as consumer and service industries, and then affect the corresponding industries. The operation and employment issues of the company have a restraining effect on the short-term economy.
"The short-term strict epidemic prevention is to not affect the long-term economic recovery." Wu Chaoming said that according to the National Health Commission's judgment that the epidemic can be basically controlled within two to three incubation periods, it is expected that the epidemic will be particularly important to the economy. The impact on consumption will be mainly concentrated in August, but it will not change the trend of economic recovery throughout the year.
Epidemics occur at multiple points and local outbreaks
"The national epidemic is showing a situation of multiple occurrences and local outbreaks. It is necessary to strictly and quickly promote regional investigations of newly discovered infections, and do a good job in key areas and key personnel management to prevent the spread of the epidemic." Mi Feng, spokesperson for the National Health Commission, said It was stated at a press conference held by the State Council’s Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism on August 4.
A reporter from China Business News combed through the high-risk areas of the domestic epidemic on August 8 and found that 14 high-risk areas were distributed in 4 provinces: 8 in Henan, 3 in Hunan, 2 in Jiangsu, and 1 in Yunnan; and 197 medium-risk areas. Distributed in 13 provinces.
According to comprehensive official information, there are currently three major communication chains related to Nanjing-Zhangjiajie, the Sixth Hospital of Zhengzhou, and the border between China and Myanmar; in addition, Shanghai, Xiamen, Haikou and other places have appeared related to international airports. Native cases.
Affected by this, various regions have strengthened epidemic control measures to varying degrees.
As of 16:00 on August 8, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) across the country have issued epidemic prevention and control travel reminders: "Never leave the province or leave the city if it is not necessary" or "reduce the trip to the province or city".
In some medium- and high-risk areas, stricter management measures have been implemented.
For example, at 15:00 on August 6, Zhengzhou City issued a notice to further strengthen epidemic prevention and control measures, requiring closed-loop management in residential communities (villages) throughout the city.
Residents in high-risk areas, the Zhengzhou health code is red, and they must be "not leaving home"; for residents in closed areas, the Zhengzhou health code is yellow, "not leaving the hospital", and each household can arrange for one person to go out with a pass each day Purchase daily necessities, etc.
"Unprecedented. This situation did not happen even when the epidemic was the worst last year. Zhengzhou's logistics is almost half-stagnation, the flow of people is basically not allowed to flow, and most of the areas that are not closed are closed." Henan Academy of Social Sciences Yu Xin'an, the dean and the dean of the China (Henan) Institute of Innovation and Development, told China Business News that the economic operation of Zhengzhou is basically shut down, which will make the economy of Zhengzhou and even the entire Henan province worse.
Yu Xinan analyzed that, as the provincial capital of Henan, Zhengzhou has experienced torrential rains and floods and the impact of the epidemic this month, which will inevitably affect the economic operation of the province.
At the same time, as a national comprehensive transportation hub, the obstruction of logistics in Zhengzhou will have a negative impact on the country's bulk logistics transportation.
"Even after the epidemic is under control and the isolation is lifted, its lagging impact on the economy cannot be ignored." Yu Xinan said that taking the construction industry as an example, many skilled workers for major projects have been temporarily dismissed. Recruitment must take time. One item takes more than three months to recover.
In addition, Yu Xinan analyzed that people's consumption habits may change as a result. For example, demand for catering and entertainment will be suppressed. In the medium and long term, people may not be optimistic about income expectations, which will exacerbate changes in consumption structure and motivation.
Conversely, changes on the consumer side will also affect the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
Jiangsu has also adopted prevention and control measures such as closing roads and villages, closed communities, and traffic control.
According to the latest news from the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Transportation, as of 9:00 am on August 8, the exits or entrances of 90 expressway toll stations in Nanjing, Huai'an, and Yangzhou were temporarily closed.
"As the second largest economic province in the country, Jiangsu itself has a relatively developed economy, so the impact of the shutdown is also greater." Chen Yao, vice president of the China Regional Economics Association, analyzed a reporter from China Business News. On the one hand, residents' consumption has dropped significantly. Nanjing Road closures in the metropolitan area have led to insufficient consumption power in and between cities; on the other hand, production activities will also be directly affected by community closure and traffic control. The provinces such as medicine, automobiles, textiles, and new materials are relatively developed. The development of the manufacturing industry is hindered.
The impact on tourism in Zhangjiajie and other places is even more obvious.
A reporter from China Business News learned that at present, scenic spots in Hunan, Shaanxi, Nanjing and other places have been closed to varying degrees, many tourism performing arts projects have been suspended, and a large number of local tourism companies have suspended work.
According to industry estimates, about 70% of its business has been lost in the tourism market this summer.
Liu Simin, vice president of the Tourism Branch of the China Future Research Society, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News that in terms of tourism, it has high requirements for an open environment, and local governments have taken heavy measures to prevent and control the epidemic and adopt lockdowns. Road closures, railway suspension and other measures, and more than a dozen provinces and cities have been upgraded to medium and high-risk areas, are bound to cause heavy losses.
Preventing and controlling pressure without changing the recovery trend
The current domestic economic recovery is unstable and uneven. Due to the continuous evolution of the epidemic and the complex and severe development environment, the pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year has increased.
However, judging from the effectiveness of domestic epidemic prevention and the economic situation, China's economy has strong resilience and great potential, and the rebound of the epidemic has not yet changed my country's sustained economic recovery.
Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean and chief macro researcher of the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, told CBN that the repeated epidemics have indeed had multiple impacts on China's economy, and generally hindered the continued economic recovery, especially when the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid.
The outbreak of the domestic epidemic once again directly hit industries that require close contact, such as tourism and catering, and the summer is also a peak season consumption period, which has a greater negative impact on tourism, catering, transportation, entertainment and other industries.
Li Zongguang, chief economist of China Renaissance Capital Group, believes that the resilience of China's economy is increasing, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy this year will be significantly smaller than last year.
If an epidemic occurs in individual places, fixed-point control may have an impact on local consumption, but the overall impact is not as great as last year.
Wu Chaoming believes that although this mutant strain is more transmissible, its overall impact on China's economy may be less than before.
On the one hand, the epidemic prevention and control experience is more mature, and the number of new confirmed cases per day in this epidemic is far less than in the first quarter of last year; on the other hand, the precision of epidemic prevention and control has been significantly improved, which can better balance epidemic prevention and economic development. It is expected that the impact on consumption and service industry activities will be significantly less than the 1.0 stage, and the impact on industrial production will be even smaller.
"From the point of view of the outbreak area, it is mainly concentrated in economically active or developed areas, such as eastern China and middle China. Therefore, it will have a certain short-term impact on the economy. However, my country’s defense capabilities have obvious advantages over European and American economies. Controlling it will not change the trend of my country's economic recovery." Wu Chaoming said.
Wang Jingwen, a macro researcher at China Minsheng Bank, told CBN that at present, consumption has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic growth level, and its recovery will be further disturbed by this round of the epidemic.
At present, industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, and accommodation related to long-distance travel, as well as industries such as retail, catering, and entertainment, which are closely related to residents' consumption, will all be affected by the epidemic.
At the same time, Wang Jingwen predicts that exports may also be affected.
However, unlike the epidemic, major developed countries have adopted the strategy of "deregulation + strengthened vaccination" this time. After abandoning the goal of "zero infection", their economy and society are accelerating the pace of opening up, and residents' commodity consumption needs will be consumed by services. This will reduce the demand for imports from China.
"The economy and society of developed countries have gradually returned to normal, while my country has returned to a certain extent to a state of strict prevention and control of the epidemic. In contrast, the recovery process of countries such as Europe and the United States will accelerate, while my country will slow down." Wang Jingwen Say.
How to "steady growth" in the second half of the year
The Politburo meeting held on July 30 set the tone for the macro policy in the second half of the year.
The meeting made it clear that a proactive fiscal policy must enhance policy effectiveness, secure the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level, reasonably grasp the progress of budgetary investment and local government bond issuance, and promote the formation of a physical workload at the end of this year and early next year.
A prudent monetary policy must maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity to help small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries continue to recover.
It is necessary to enhance the autonomy of macro policy and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
Do a good job in ensuring the supply of bulk commodities and stabilizing prices.
Wang Jingwen believes that at present, China needs to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.
On the one hand, expand the scope of vaccination, and at the same time consider abandoning the goal of “zero infection” and gradually realize herd immunity; It can survive the current difficult moment.
In terms of macro policies, he said that for fiscal policies, it is necessary to further enhance policy effectiveness, reasonably grasp the progress of budgetary investment and local government bond issuance, and promote the formation of physical workloads at the end of this year and early next year.
In other words, speed up fiscal expenditures and special bond issuance, and play a counter-cyclical adjustment effect.
Regarding monetary policy, he believes that taking into account the large amount of MLF maturity in the second half of the year and the obvious acceleration of the issuance of government bonds, the RRR cuts can be taken in time to cooperate.
If the economic downturn exceeds expectations, the policy interest rate can also be lowered accordingly.
"But the prerequisite is to do a good job in the supervision of the real estate market and local platforms, and promote the flow of funds to the real economy." Wang Jingwen added.
Looking ahead to China's economic recovery in the second half of this year and the first half of next year, Wu Chaoming believes that China is still in a macroeconomic environment with increasing pressure for steady growth.
He suggested speeding up the implementation of the spirit of the Politburo meeting on July 30, doing a good job in cross-cycle adjustments, and appropriately increasing policy efforts.
Among them, with fiscal policy as the main theme, speed up the progress of budgetary investment, special bond issuance, and major engineering projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan", so as to form a physical workload as soon as possible to improve the effectiveness of fiscal policy.
Monetary policy is coordinated with fiscal policy to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, make good use of structural tools, and help small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries continue to recover, and accelerate economic transformation.
Luo Zhiheng said that the policy focuses on inter-cyclical adjustments, and the steady growth is planned for a rainy day.
Specifically, fiscal policy should improve policy effectiveness, especially speed up the issuance of special bonds, promote the recovery of infrastructure, and hedge against real estate and possible export pressure; at the same time, continue to implement the problem of uneven economic recovery, especially the difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises. Implement the policy of fine tax and fee reduction; continue to support technological innovation and maintain the stability of the industrial chain.
Monetary policy should provide financing support to small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturing industries, and fiscal policy should guide monetary policy to discount interest rates.
Wu Ge, chief economist at Changjiang Securities, believes that economic momentum is weakening due to the turmoil of the epidemic. In addition to the previous RRR cut and the statement of the Politburo meeting, the market expects that the policy tone will become looser.
In terms of finances, similar to the previous rounds, the recurrence of the epidemic may make short-term fiscal expenditures expand.
Although the issuance of special bonds is expected to increase in the future, the physical workload is mainly completed at the end of this year and early next year.
The growth rate of social finance will also experience a slight contraction, but it is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.
China Everbright Bank analyst Zhou Maohua analyzed that in response to the impact of the epidemic, the central bank will use more structural tools and precise support to guide the flow of credit resources to small and micro private enterprises, manufacturing and other key emerging areas, stimulate the vitality of micro entities, stabilize employment, and accelerate the promotion As long as domestic demand recovers steadily, economic structure continues to optimize, and macro risks tend to converge, my country will be more confident in responding to external shocks.
Wang Jinbin, deputy dean of the School of Economics at Renmin University of China, made four suggestions in an interview with China Business News.
First, the substitution effect of consumption on investment cannot be overemphasized. “Without investment, there will be no supply for the next period, and overemphasizing consumption will lead to a slowdown in economic growth”; second, fiscal power.
In the first half of the year, only one-third of the government bond financing scale was completed, and both fiscal "finding" and project investment should be accelerated; third, financing costs should be reduced, sufficient liquidity should be maintained, and financing difficulties and financing costs should be reduced, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. Fourth, we insist that housing is not speculated, but to prevent real estate investment from falling too fast, stabilizing housing prices also requires increasing supply.
Wang Jinbin believes that from the perspective of the global market, as China's exports remain good and the new strain of Delta makes it possible for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases, it may take longer. Therefore, China will still be under pressure for stable growth in the external cycle for some time to come. Smaller window period.
(Author: Ma Chenchen? Wu Simin? Zhu Yanran)