Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, August 9th (Feng Fang) Today (9th) at 24:00, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. Many institutions predict that due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, this round of pricing cycle International oil prices have risen and fallen, and the price adjustment of refined oil products has a high probability of being stranded, which will be the third time that it has been stranded this year.

New latitude and longitude in the data map, photo by Zhang Meng

　　During this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil futures prices rose first and then fell. By the end of the cycle, the prices of both the US and Burundi oil both fell.

In the early morning of August 7 (Saturday), Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures settled at US$68.28/barrel, a decrease of 1.17%; Brent October crude oil futures settled at US$70.70/barrel, a decrease of 0.83%.

　　Jin Lianchuang analyst Han Zhengji analyzed that in the early stage, international crude oil prices continued to rise, and tight supply and demand are expected to continue to boost oil prices. The market expects that the recovery in demand in the United States, India and Europe will further tighten the global crude oil market. It is believed that the increase in OPEC+ production is difficult to change the current short-term market trend of short supply.

In addition, factors such as the sharp reduction in US crude oil inventories have also provided strong support for crude oil prices.

　　Han Zhengji said that in the later period, the epidemic caused the economic recovery of major oil-consuming countries to face risks, and oil prices were under pressure to drop sharply.

Although the United States, Europe and other countries and regions have taken measures to prevent and control the epidemic, the market is still worried about the growth space of fuel demand in the second half of the year.

　　Zhongyu Information analyst Liu Biao also pointed out that as the epidemic continues to spread and the global number of new crown cases has surged, the market's view of the demand outlook is no longer as optimistic as before.

However, OPEC's crude oil output in July increased to the highest level since April last year, and the fundamentals of supply and demand diverged. Crude oil futures prices fell after entering August. The U.S. and Burundi oils fell below the $70 mark, but they rebounded slightly. , But it is difficult to change the situation of deep decline.

Under the influence of the weak crude oil market, the adjustment of the zero price limit of domestic refined oil products is expected to continue to pull back.

　　According to calculations by many institutions, as of the ninth working day of the Japanese round on August 6, the price adjustment range for refined oil products with reference to the change rate of crude oil varieties was less than 50 yuan/ton.

According to the current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, when the increase or decrease is less than 50 yuan/ton, the domestic refined oil price will not be adjusted.

　　According to statistics from the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, since 2021, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted for fourteen rounds. Gasoline prices have been increased by 1,375 yuan/ton in total, and diesel prices have been increased by 1,325 yuan/ton in total. pattern.

If this forecast is fulfilled, domestic refined oil price adjustments will be stranded for the third time this year.

　　In addition, Longzhong Information Li Yan mentioned that in terms of wholesale, the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel have fallen recently. In addition to the impact of the once sharp drop in international oil prices, local epidemics have repeatedly suppressed gasoline consumption and the slow improvement in traditional off-season demand for diesel has also been brought about Coming under pressure.

In terms of gas station retail, the preferential policy continues. The retail price of gasoline at private gas stations is mostly 0.4-0.6 yuan/liter lower than that of main gas stations. During some site activities, the discount can reach 1-1.3 yuan/liter.

　　The next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on August 23. Li Yan believes that the delta mutant strain is spreading in many countries around the world, and the economy and demand are expected to be dragged down. It is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustments will be greater.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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