Mortgage loan survey in first-tier cities: Shanghai-Suizhou housing loans "increased in price", and many banks in Beijing have tightened quotas

  Peng Yan

  Recently, the regulation of housing loans in first-tier cities represented by Shanghai has increased again.

Since July 24, some banks in the Shanghai area have raised mortgage interest rates, and at the same time, the Shanghai property market has upgraded its restrictions on purchases.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the first-tier cities represented by Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have seen an obvious tightening of housing loans, which is mainly reflected in the increase in interest rates, the tightening of quotas, and the extension of lending cycles.

  "Securities Daily" reporters recently called and visited some bank outlets in first-tier cities, and the general feedback received was that the current mortgage quota is tight and the loan time is unpredictable.

At the same time, some bank staff reminded: “Because the loan time is uncertain, buyers must pay attention to the signing time of the loan contract to avoid the risk of default.”

  Why is the housing loan market in some first-tier cities tightening frequently?

  "The regulation of housing loans in some cities is mainly caused by the inadequate mortgage loan quotas of various banks and tight market liquidity caused by the tiered management measures of housing loan concentration. This reflects the policy intent to strengthen real estate regulation. In the follow-up, other cities in China, especially real estate Hotter cities will also raise mortgage interest rates." IPG China Chief Economist Bai Wenxi said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that from the current industry situation, the possibility of further tightening of housing credit in the second half of the year Yes, and the mortgage interest rate, as a price tool to adjust the total supply, does not rule out the possibility of continuing to rise in the future.

  Shanghai's first home interest rate has entered the "5" era

  The Shanghai property market, which has been warming up in the first half of this year, ushered in regulation in the second half of the year.

In early July, the second-hand housing price verification policy was implemented.

On July 23, after the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other eight departments issued the "Notice on Continued Rectification and Standardization of the Real Estate Market Order", Shanghai "Yingsheng" increased the real estate market regulation policy and announced an increase in the mortgage interest rate. The first set of interest rates was adjusted to 5%, and the second set The interest rate is adjusted to 5.7%; the donated housing is included in the purchase restriction policy, and the number of housing units owned by the donor will still be recorded within 5 years, and the recipient shall comply with the national and Shanghai housing purchase restriction policies.

Both new regulations will come into effect on July 24.

  A reporter from the Securities Daily called several bank branches in the Shanghai area. The credit manager of a large state-owned bank said: “Recently, our bank raised the mortgage interest rate for the first set to 5% and the second set to 5.7%.” As for the reason for the increase, the The manager said, "mainly because of the rapid increase in house prices in Shanghai."

  In addition, the speed of mortgage approval is still relatively slow.

According to the "Securities Daily" reporter, it takes up to 4 months or more to review loans for many Shanghai homebuyers.

Regarding the current housing loan quota, the credit manager of a major Shanghai bank said that since the fourth quarter of last year, the housing loan quota has been relatively tight, and the current loan time has been stretched to three to four months.

Another bank credit manager said: “Acceptance of mortgage business will be suspended in August, mainly because there is no loan line.”

  The significant increase in the pricing of mortgage loans in Shanghai is due to both market factors and the need for regulation.

Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the financial industry of Everbright Securities, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the contradiction between mortgage supply and demand in Shanghai is more prominent than that in the whole country.

In June, Shanghai's housing price increase was among the highest. This credit policy adjustment can be understood as a "combined punch" in Shanghai's real estate regulation.

  Extension of lending time in Beijing

  While Shanghai is tightening housing loans, Beijing's real estate market is becoming increasingly tense.

"Securities Daily" reporters recently visited a number of bank branches in Beijing and found that in terms of mortgage interest rates, the mortgage interest rates of banks in Beijing remained unchanged. The first set increased by 55 basis points, or 5.2%, on the basis of LPR; the second set increased. 105 basis points, or 5.7%.

In terms of quota, the staff of the bank's personal loan department said that the current mortgage quota is tight and the loan time is uncertain.

  Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that tight mortgage quotas will be the norm in 2021, especially in recent months. The transaction volume has been high year-on-year, and the difficulty of new home loans is relatively low. In the second-hand housing market, there are general difficulties in lending and obtaining loans.

  "The whole year of this year's mortgage quota has basically been used up, and it may have to wait until January next year." A personal loan manager of a major state-owned bank told reporters.

The personal loan manager of a joint-stock bank branch also said that due to the shortage of quotas, the current lending time has been extended.

  The "Securities Daily" reporter also learned from a number of real estate agencies that most banks no longer have a quota, and it will take more than a month for banks to issue loans at the earliest.

Many home buyers also told reporters that when applying for a mortgage loan from a bank, they obviously feel that it is difficult and slow to lend.

  Pan Helin, executive dean of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that on the one hand, the tightening of housing loan policies in various places, including the introduction of "third-line and four-level" policies, has made the overall mortgage quota tight. On the other hand, in the first half of the year, the real estate industry still showed a vigorous trading situation, so the demand for housing loans rose.

Under the two-way effect, the supply of housing loans exceeds demand.

  Guangzhou raised mortgage interest rates 4 times in half a year

  Both Shanghai and Beijing's first home loan interest rates have entered the "5" era, and Guangzhou, which is also a first-tier city, has entered the "6" era.

  Since the beginning of this year, Guangzhou has completed four mortgage interest rate increases.

It is understood that the first set of mortgage interest rates for the four major banks in Guangzhou has basically risen by 90BP-100BP, with interest rates as high as 5.65%; the interest rates for second home mortgages have mostly risen by 110BP-120BP, with interest rates as high as 5.85%.

The interest rate of the first home loan of China Everbright Bank has "broken 6".

  "Securities Daily" reporters called many bank branches in the Guangzhou area. The relevant staff all said that the current mortgage quota is tight, and some banks even "temporarily stop lending."

A personal loan manager of a joint-stock bank told reporters: "Recently, the mortgage interest rate has been increasing, and the loan time has been long. It will still take 3 to 4 months after the transfer of the account to make the loan." Some banks also said, "Currently, the stock mortgage is being processed. Business, do not accept new mortgage applications."

  Will housing credit in the second half of the year be further tightened, and will housing loan interest rates continue to rise in the future?

  Wang Yifeng told reporters that the policy orientation of “stabilizing and tightening” real estate financing has not changed. Since the second quarter, the market-wide mortgage loan interest rate is expected to continue to rise, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased.

He believes that the future real estate financing trends are mainly reflected in three aspects: first, the controlled increase in mortgage loans in the next stage may continue to push the mortgage interest rate upward; secondly, the financing pressure on the real estate enterprise side is more prominent, and the weakly qualified real estate enterprises are under systematic pressure. ; Third, the rise in the rated price of mortgage loans is conducive to stabilizing the net interest margin of the banking system, and will form a certain support for the stability of the asset-side pricing of the banking system.

  Pan Helin also said that the housing loan interest rate in the second half of the year will first depend on the fluctuation of housing prices, and the housing loan interest rate will change due to changes in supply and demand.

Therefore, in the future, mortgage interest rates will be synchronized with housing prices.

However, overall interest rates may continue to be loose, including LPR quotations, which will further reduce market interest rates.

This asymmetric interest rate approach is actually to optimize the credit structure.