(Economic Observation) After the loss of more than 500 million yuan, what is the impact of the heavy rain in Henan on the price of food and meat?

  China News Service, Beijing, July 22 (Reporter Xia Bin) According to the latest data released by the Chinese government, according to incomplete statistics, since the 16th, this round of heavy rainfall has caused 75 thousand hectares of crops in Henan Province to be damaged, and the disaster area is 25.2. 1,000 hectares, with an area of ​​4.7 thousand hectares with no harvest; direct economic losses of RMB 542,287,200.

What problems will disasters caused by extreme weather have on the economy and people's livelihood?

How to deal with resolution?

  Heavy rains and floods are often accompanied by power outages, water cuts, and even the destruction of some infrastructure. Traffic obstruction is not conducive to transportation and logistics in the short term, and will also impact production and operation activities in the disaster-affected areas.

  At present, in Zhengzhou city, some road traffic has been interrupted, pure electric buses have been suspended, many expressways with the outside world have been closed, trains, planes, etc. have also been suspended and flights have been cancelled.

  But the good news is that many companies in Zhengzhou can still produce and operate.

Miss Food said that there is basically no stagnant water in the company's production and office parks, the water supply, power supply and communication networks are normal, and the production order is stable.

The logistics and transportation within the city area will be affected to a certain extent, but the problem is not big.

  Shuanghui Development said that road traffic in the city is blocked and transportation will definitely be affected.

However, as the rainfall slows and traffic resumes, the impact will be temporary.

The current production and operation of the company's local factory in Zhengzhou are not affected.

  According to incomplete statistics, divided by region, there are 91 A-share listed companies in Henan, including 26 in Zhengzhou.

Judging from the announcements of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, as of 12:00 on the 22nd, no company has disclosed that it has been significantly affected by the rainstorm.

  Henan Province is a major agricultural province in China. Judging from the national summer grain production data this year, its total summer grain output, sown area, and unit area output rank first in the country.

  "Strong precipitation may have a small impact on food prices." Wang Han, chief economist of Industrial Securities, said that the direct impact of heavy rains and floods on rice crops is mainly mechanical damage caused by impact lodging and plant hypoxia caused by flood soaking.

However, its impact on food prices is likely to be limited due to two reasons.

  First, the current grain stocks are still abundant, and the year-on-year volatility of China's grain prices has narrowed sharply since 2012.

The second is that rice can be replanted after the flood has returned. As long as the duration of the flood disaster does not exceed the seasonal extension, its impact on food prices may be limited.

  Wang Han said that from historical experience, there was no super-seasonal increase in food prices after heavy rainfall and floods in 2016, 2017, 2020, and the following year.

Therefore, the impact of this round of floods on food prices may also be limited.

  Speaking of pig prices, Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities, pointed out that Henan is a major pig-raising province in China, and pork production accounts for about 8% of the country.

Although it is difficult to change the current rapid restoration of pig production capacity across the country, and the weakening of pork prices in the second half of the year is a high probability event, the current flood may change the pace of changes in pig prices and lead to a rebound in pig prices in the short term, which is expected to have a greater impact on CPI. small.

  After the Henan flood occurred, the Ministry of Commerce of China immediately launched an emergency plan to guide local governments to carry out flood prevention and supply work; establish a five-province joint guarantee and supply mechanism for work docking and inter-provincial dispatch; arrange for large-scale backbone guarantee supply companies to strengthen dispatch and do Good emergency support.

At present, the supply and demand of daily necessities in various parts of Henan is stable.

  The Zhengzhou Municipal Market Supervision Administration stated that in order to stabilize prices and ensure the supply of daily necessities, it issued a notice to the market supervision departments of various jurisdictions, requesting supervisors at all levels to help major supermarkets, farmer’s markets, and agricultural product wholesale markets to organize merchants to resume their operations and do their best. It may increase the supply of daily necessities such as vegetables, rice, noodles, oil, meat, eggs, and water.

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