What's the trend of commodities? Are pork prices bottoming out? National Bureau of Statistics response

　　China News Service, July 15th. In response to the issue of "the next commodity trend", Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said on the 15th that although the import pressure of international commodity prices still exists, my country’s industrial production The capacity is relatively strong, and the supply capacity of industrial products is relatively sufficient.

At the same time, the relevant departments have recently implemented the policy of ensuring the supply and stabilization of domestic bulk commodity prices, and the effect is currently showing preliminary results.

　　The State Council Information Office is scheduled to hold a press conference on the morning of the 15th. Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the General Statistics Department of the National Economy, will introduce the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2021 and answer questions from reporters.

　　A reporter asked that since the beginning of this year, the prices of bulk commodities have continued to rise, which has caused a certain impact on the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, and the profits of small and medium-sized enterprises have been under pressure.

What do you think of the next commodity trend?

How do SMEs respond?

In addition, pork prices continue to decline, becoming the main drag on CPI.

Do you think the current pork price has bottomed out and what do you think of the annual inflation?

　　Regarding commodity price trends.

Liu Aihua pointed out that from the current situation, the producer prices (PPI) of industrial producers rose by an average of 5.1% in the first half of this year, an increase of 3 percentage points over the first quarter.

Ex-factory prices for industrial producers expanded in the second quarter, mainly due to several factors.

First, the economy continues to recover and demand continues to expand.

　　The second is the imported impact of rising international commodity prices.

In June of this year, the international energy price index rose by 92.6% year-on-year, and the non-energy price index rose by 43.2%, both of which were relatively high.

　　The third is the impact of the low base in the same period last year.

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the PPI has continued to decline since February last year. In the second quarter, the price of each month fell by more than 3% year-on-year. Therefore, the year-on-year increase in the PPI in the second quarter of this year has increased significantly, giving many mid-downstream enterprises, small, medium and micro Enterprises have brought relatively large cost pressures.

　　Liu Aihua said that, on the whole, although the import pressure of international bulk commodity prices still exists, my country's industrial production capacity is relatively strong, and the supply capacity of industrial products is relatively sufficient.

At the same time, the relevant departments have recently implemented the policy of ensuring the supply and stabilization of domestic bulk commodity prices, and the effect is currently showing preliminary results.

The factory price of industrial producers in June rose by 8.8% year-on-year, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in May.

Therefore, the impact of rising prices of industrial products is generally controllable.

　　Regarding the trend of CPI and the judgment of pork price.

Liu Aihua mentioned that in the first half of this year, the CPI was in a moderate upward trend. In the first half of this year, the CPI rose by an average of 0.5%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the same period last year, which was at a relatively low level in recent years.

In terms of monthly changes, consumer prices rose by 1.1% in June, 0.2 percentage points lower than in May.

From a structural point of view, the change in food prices from rising to falling can be said to be the main reason for the decline in CPI growth.

In the first half of this year, food prices fell by 0.2% year-on-year, and food prices rose by 16.2% in the same period last year. Food prices changed from the main factor that pulled consumer prices up to the factor that pulled down consumer prices, which affected consumer prices by 0.04 in the first half of this year. percentage point.

　　The pork price mentioned by the reporter has been declining year-on-year for 9 consecutive months, with an average drop of 19.3% in the first half of the year, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.45 percentage points.

Liu Aihua said that in the first half of this year, consumer prices rose moderately, and the change in food prices was the main reason that affected the overall decline in growth. The price of pork was an important reason.

　　From the perspective of non-food prices, non-food prices rose by 0.7% in the first half of this year. This increase was the same as the same period last year and affected the CPI's rise by 0.57 percentage points.

Among non-food products, energy prices have risen more. In the first half of this year, gasoline and diesel prices rose by 8.5% and 9.2% respectively, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.24 percentage points in total.

The modest increase in consumer prices in the first half of this year was due to the fact that food prices changed from rising to falling, and there were also factors that contributed to a relatively stable increase in non-food prices.

　　From the perspective of the three sectors that affect CPI in the next stage, the first sector is food prices.

Yesterday, the output of summer grains was announced, and the summer grains had another bumper harvest, so grain prices are expected to remain stable.

With the continuous recovery of pig production and the support of the national purchasing and storage policy, the price of pork is expected to remain stable.

On the whole, food prices will not have much pressure to rise as a result of another bumper harvest of grains and a stable pork price.

　　The second sector, looking at the prices of industrial consumer goods.

The rise in international commodity prices will bring some industrial consumer goods to rise, but in the long run, my country’s supply capacity is relatively strong, industrial production capacity is relatively strong, and the industrial system is relatively complete. Therefore, the market supply of industrial consumer goods is generally sufficient. There is no basis for sustained sharp increases in consumer product prices.

　　The third sector, looking at service prices.

In the first half of this year, service prices continued to be affected by the spread of the epidemic, and are currently at a low level in recent years. In the first half of this year, service prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year.

In the next stage, as the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, consumer demand for catering, accommodation, and tourism will gradually recover, market confidence will continue to increase, and residents’ income growth is also accelerating, and service prices will have a certain level. The degree of recovery.

But on the whole, taking into account the impact of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, service prices are also expected to maintain a slight increase.

　　Liu Aihua said that based on the judgment of the future development of the above three sectors, there are foundations and conditions for maintaining a moderate price increase throughout the year, and there are also foundations and conditions for achieving the annual control target of about 3%.