(Mid-Year Economic Observation) China's economy has three "unchanged" behind the decline in GDP growth

  China News Service, Beijing, July 15 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The China Economic Semi-annual Report was published on the 15th.

From 18.3% in the first quarter to 12.7% in the first half of the year, behind the year-on-year decline in GDP growth, there are still three "unchanged" trends in China's economy.

  First, the recovery momentum remains unchanged.

  Affected by the epidemic, China's main economic indicators have experienced negative growth since February last year, leading to a sharp jump in the year-on-year growth rate of relevant indicators in the same period this year.

As the base recovers, the year-on-year growth rate of these indicators is an inevitable trend.

According to Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, the current economic situation in China depends not only on year-on-year data, but also on average data of the past two years, chain-on-month data, etc. Only by combining different aspects can we better observe the overall picture of China's economy.

  As he said, although the year-on-year growth rate of China's GDP in the first half of the year fell from the first quarter, the average growth rate in the two years was 5.3%, which is still 0.3 percentage points faster than the first quarter.

In terms of a single quarter, the second quarter increased by 7.9% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month. The two-year average growth rate was 5.5%, which was 0.5% faster than the first quarter.

In terms of related indicators, the total freight volume in the first half of the year increased by 24.6% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.2%; the total social power consumption increased by 16.1% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7%.

  As a key engine of China's economic growth, consumption, which has been hit harder by the epidemic, is also showing an improvement trend.

In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 12.1% year-on-year and 10% year-on-year. The two-year average growth rate was 4.9%, an increase of 0.4%.

  Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth in the first half of the year reached 61.7%, 42.5 percentage points higher than the total capital formation, and the fundamental role of consumption is gradually being released.

  Second, the development confidence remains unchanged.

  With the steady economic recovery, China's development quality and efficiency have generally improved.

According to statistics, from January to May, the total profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 83.4% year-on-year, an average increase of 21.7% in two years, and the operating income margin reached 7.11%, an increase of 2.05 percentage points from the same period last year.

From January to May, the total profit of service industry enterprises above designated size increased by 1.5 times year-on-year.

  Life is easier, which has strengthened the development confidence and confidence of market players.

In June, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.9%, which has been in the boom range for 16 consecutive months. The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index are also in the higher boom range.

A previous report issued by Standard Chartered Bank also showed that the current confidence index of China's SMEs remains at the second highest level since the outbreak, and its overall business activities are stable, and the recovery of various industries is more balanced.

  Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and Director of the Department of National Economic Comprehensive Statistics, said that this reflects the continuous improvement of market participants' confidence in future economic growth and confidence in future growth vitality.

She also mentioned that the gradual increase in market vitality and the general improvement in corporate returns are conducive to enhancing corporate investment confidence and ability.

  Third, the policy will remain unchanged.

  On the whole, China's national economy continued to recover steadily in the first half of the year, basically in line with expectations.

However, in the second half of the year, there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in China's economic development.

On the one hand, the international epidemic situation has repeated ups and downs, the global economic recovery is not yet fully and unbalanced, and external demand is still fluctuating; on the other hand, the foundation of domestic economic recovery needs to be further consolidated, especially the rise in commodity prices, which brings greater costs to companies pressure.

  In this context, China's policy toolbox continues to open.

For example, the central bank recently announced a reduction in the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds.

Liu Aihua said that while economic fundamentals, supply and demand are stable and improving, macro policies continue to support the real economy, and policies to support small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households are constantly being implemented. This is conducive to providing relief for enterprises. Overcome difficulties and continue to inject vitality into the market.

  Wen Bin believes that in the next step, China’s macroeconomic policies should continue to maintain the word “stable”. As external shocks increase and growth pressures increase, the focus of work can be shifted to stable growth and market players, and continue to increase efforts to boost growth. Domestic demand.

Monetary policy continues to increase structural support to help small, medium and micro enterprises hedge against the impact of raw material price increases; fiscal policy continues to work hard to support economic growth and further promote investment to play a key role.