CPI gains have fallen back, pork purchasing and storage and other "guaranteed supply and stable price" policies have been effective

  According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of Xinhua News Agency, the national consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from May.

The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.9% year-on-year, the same rate as the previous month.

The industry pointed out that the decline in food prices, especially the expansion of pork prices, was the main reason for the decline in CPI growth.

With the release of the effects of "guarantee supply and stable price" policies such as pork purchasing and storage, and the arrival of the pork consumption peak season in the third quarter, pork prices will usher in a rebound in the near future.

  Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, pointed out that in the 1.1% year-on-year increase in CPI, the impact of tail-lifting factors was about 0.8 percentage points, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The new price increase factor was 0.3%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month. The weakening of the new price increase factor was the main reason for the decline in CPI.

The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.9% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, and the overall increase was moderate.

  Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that food prices have changed from a 0.3% increase last month to a decline of 1.7%, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.31 percentage points, mainly driven by the expansion of the decline in pork prices.

In food, the price of pork fell by 36.5%, an increase of 12.7 percentage points from the previous month.

Non-food prices rose by 1.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, affecting the CPI's rise by about 1.38 percentage points.

Among non-food items, the price of air tickets rose by 27.0%, a drop of 5.3%; the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas rose by 24.3%, 26.8% and 11.1%, respectively, all of which increased.

  Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, also said that the fall in food prices was the main reason for the fall in CPI.

Among them, the increase in pork prices is the main reason, mainly due to the continuous recovery of live pig production capacity on the supply side, concentrated slaughter, and weak summer consumption on the demand side.

Among the non-food prices, the prices of the seven categories increased six year-on-year and one decreased year-on-year, and the rate of increase was relatively stable compared with the previous month.

  The rapid decline in pig prices has aroused the attention of the regulators.

On June 28, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the pig food ratio was 4.9:1, which has entered the first-level warning range for excessive decline.

On July 7, the procurement and storage of the first batch of 20,000 tons of frozen pork from the central reserve in 2021 has been started.

  The reporter of "Economic Information Daily" noticed that the effect of the policy of "guarantee supply and stabilize prices" is gradually emerging. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) in late June was 13.9 yuan/kg, which was the same as in mid-June. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the concentration of large pigs entering the market in the early stage has eased. From June 28 to July 4, the retail price of pork rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and it rebounded for the first time since late February. Gao Feng, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said on the 8th that with the gradual digestion of large pigs in the early stage by the market and the support of national purchasing and storage policies, it is expected that the prices of live pigs and pork in the second half of the year will be stabilized and consolidated.

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