China News Service, Shanghai, July 12 (Reporter Jiang Yu) Zhixin Investment Research Institute held a macroeconomic operation outlook report conference for the second half of 2021 in Shanghai on the 12th. Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean of Zhixin Investment Made an in-depth interpretation of the world and China's economic trends in the second half of the year.
The report believes that the second quarter of 2021 may be a staged high point in the recovery of the world economy after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic.
The low base number push effect and the further recovery of major economies have laid the foundation for the overall trend of the world economy. However, the asynchronous development of the epidemic in major economies has dragged down the overall pace of recovery, the release of aggregate demand and the slowdown of supply recovery weakened the momentum of recovery, which may make the second half of the year. The growth rate of the world economy has slowed down.
Lian Ping analyzed: "The world economic growth in the second half of the year is due to the asynchrony of the inflection points of the epidemic in various countries and the repeated epidemics in some countries. Although the overall recovery continues, the growth rate will slow down; the increase in commodity prices may eventually be controlled in the fourth quarter; With the expectation that inflation is under control and the unemployment rate is hovering, the probability of a sharp tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy during the year is relatively small, and global liquidity continues to remain abundant; as the US economic recovery is better than other economies, capital repatriation may help restrain the US Bond yields have risen, thereby increasing the stability of global financial asset prices."
In terms of China’s economy, the report predicts that the four major positive factors in the second half of the year will contribute to the steady growth of China’s industrial production: strong external demand will bring about the growth of mid- and downstream manufacturing; the increase in prices in the middle and upper reaches will bring profitability; the steady and rapid growth of the construction industry will bring building materials, etc. Demand grows; high-tech production maintains rapid growth.
According to Lian Ping’s analysis, manufacturing investment may become an important driver of China’s economic recovery in 2021; with the acceleration of the domestic vaccination process, the increase in the number of consumption scenarios, and the continuous recovery of residents’ income levels, there will be further improvements in the overall recovery of consumption. China’s export growth rate may continue to slow marginally in the second half of the year, but imports will grow steadily.