In June, the CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year, and the rate of increase was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month.
Price operation remains stable (Rui Finance)
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 9, the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose by 1.1% year-on-year in June, and the PPI (Factory Producer Price Index) rose by 8.8% year-on-year, both of which fell back.
According to industry analysts, in general, my country's economy maintained a stable recovery in June, the consumer market was generally adequately supplied, and consumer prices were operating steadily.
CPI gains fell for the first time this year
Data show that the CPI growth rate in June fell for the first time in the year, with the largest month-on-month decline.
From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 1.1%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month; from a month-on-month perspective, the CPI fell 0.4% in June, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
According to Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, food prices fell by 2.2% month-on-month, and the rate of decline expanded by 0.5 percentage points, which affected the CPI drop by about 0.4 percentage points.
In food, the price of pork continued to fall by 13.6%; a large number of fresh vegetables and fruits were listed, and the prices fell by 2.3% and 4.5% respectively. Affected by factors such as continued tight supply, the price of freshwater fish continued to rise by 2.4%.
Sun Xuegong, director of the Economic Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, said in an interview that the year-on-year decrease in CPI growth in June was mainly due to the sharp drop in pork prices.
"Spurred by high prices, the scale of live pig production will inevitably expand. By the middle of the year, the continuous growth of live pig production capacity, the concentration of slaughter pigs for slaughter, and the seasonal weakening of consumer demand have met, leading to an increase in pork prices." Sun Xuegong said.
"Among the 1.1% year-on-year increase, the carry-over impact of last year's price changes was about 0.8 percentage point, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The impact of the new price increase was about 0.3 percentage point, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month." Dong Lijuan said. .
Industrial product prices have slowed down
"In June, the effects of the domestic bulk commodity supply and price stabilization policy began to appear, the market supply and demand relationship tends to improve, and the price increase of industrial products has slowed down." Dong Lijuan said.
From a year-on-year perspective, the PPI rose by 8.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; from a month-on-month perspective, the PPI rose by 0.3%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, the price of means of production rose by 0.5% month-on-month, and the growth rate dropped by 1.6 percentage points.
"Affected by the policy of ensuring the supply of raw materials and stabilizing prices, the excessively rapid price increase of steel, non-ferrous metals and other industries has been initially curbed, and prices have turned from rising to falling. Among them, the price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry fell by 0.7%, Industrial prices fell by 0.1%." Dong Lijuan said, "High temperature weather has led to a strong demand for thermal coal, which drove the price of coal mining and washing industries to rise by 5.2%, but due to measures to increase production and supply, the increase fell by 5.4 percentage points."
"Domestic industrial product prices continued to rise in the first half of this year, mainly due to international import factors." Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the National Information Center, told reporters, "Demand exceeds supply, causing global commodity prices to rise. The market generally believes that the second quarter is the second quarter. Prices are high. With the continuous release of price signals to guide the production and circulation of raw materials, commodity prices will gradually return to the fundamentals of supply and demand."
Affected by the rise in commodity prices, the year-on-year increase in PPI has continued to rebound since the beginning of this year, and it rose to 9% in May.
With the decline in growth in June, the market generally believes that the PPI high has passed.
Sun Xuegong said that the effect of the policy of ensuring the supply and stabilizing prices of raw materials in June has appeared. The rapid price increase of steel, non-ferrous metals and other industries has been initially curbed, and the price has changed from rising to falling, which has driven the PPI to fall back.
"However, whether it is too high or not requires further observation. In particular, the trend of international commodity prices is still uncertain in the second half of the year, and changes in exchange rates and other related factors will also have an impact." Sun Xuegong said.
Prices will continue to stabilize
How do you see the price trend in the second half of the year?
Zhu Baoliang believes that overall prices will continue the stable trend in the first half of the year, and inflationary pressures will be low.
"The main factors affecting the CPI trend in the second half of the year are pork prices and carry-over factors. Pork prices are in a downward cycle, which still has a pull-down effect on CPI, and the recovery of downstream consumption at the final demand side is still weak. Overall, there is no significant inflationary pressure on CPI this year. "
"Under the influence of various factors, such as further economic recovery driving continuous growth in demand, slowing down of pork prices, delayed transmission of PPI rise, and increased tail-lifting factors, etc., CPI is expected to show a slight upward trend, and the overall regulation is still within the target. Sun Xuegong said that the trend of PPI is greatly affected by international factors, especially the prices of international commodities, and the uncertainty is greater. However, the policy is already actively responding, and its changes are expected to slow down.
The recent executive meeting of the State Council reiterated the topic "Commodities". In view of the impact of commodity price increases on the production and operation of enterprises, the meeting decided to use monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts to further strengthen financial support for the real economy, especially small, medium and micro enterprises. Facilitate a steady decline in comprehensive financing costs.
The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission previously stated that the year-on-year increase in PPI is expected to show a "low at both ends and high in the middle" trend, and the year-on-year increase in the second half of the year will decline.
"The next step is to prevent foreign imported factors from being transmitted to the downstream industry and affecting downstream costs." Zhu Baoliang said, through flexibility to adjust exchange rates, reduce downstream costs, reduce taxes, and crack down on speculation, the prices of domestic industrial products can be stabilized.
"After the domestic policy level stabilizes commodity prices, imported inflation is basically under control. It is expected that the PPI will slowly decline on a stable basis in the second half of the year."
Reporter: Kong Dechen