Experts in real estate regulation over 234 times in the first half of the year: the future "cooling" trend of second-hand housing will continue
China Net Finance, July 2 (Reporter Wang Chenxi) In the first half of 2021, the real estate market has been heavily regulated, credit policies have been tightened, and house purchase policies have been adjusted frequently. However, rising housing prices in hot cities are still the mainstream.
With the deepening of the regulation, the increase in house prices has been gradually suppressed, especially in the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities.
Regarding the operation of the real estate market in the second half of the year, experts told China Net Finance that the slowdown in the growth of second-hand housing prices is a manifestation of the return of the property market to normal, and the property market transactions will gradually stabilize in the future.
In the first half of the year, the second-hand housing market has intensive control measures. It is expected that the decline in second-hand housing prices in the future will continue to return to normal
According to statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Institute, in the first five months of this year, the number of real estate adjustments in various regions exceeded 234.
Among them, the second-hand housing market control measures are also intensively introduced.
In February this year, Shenzhen released a second-hand housing reference price mechanism.
In March, Beijing Haidian severely punished the "hype" school district housing, and the Shanghai Real Estate Brokers Association launched the "Self-discipline Initiative for Standardizing Housing Listing and Information Release."
After first-tier cities took the lead in demonstration, second-tier cities followed closely.
By April, the purchase of second-hand houses in Hefei and the sale of second-hand houses in Xi'an were restricted. In May, Chengdu officially released the reference price policy for second-hand houses.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of second-hand housing in the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 1.3% month-on-month in January; second-hand housing prices rose 1.1% month-on-month in February; rose 1.0% in March; 0.8% in April; and 0.6% in May. %.
The increase in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities has dropped significantly.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, told China Net Finance that, in fact, first-tier cities have very strict policy control. The investigation and punishment of real estate groups such as Shenfang Li previously formed a certain deterrent to the market.
Following the concentrated supply of new houses, the second-hand housing market will cool down.
"Second-hand house prices are still rising, but the rate of increase is slowing down. It is expected that the decline in second-hand house prices will continue in the second half of the year." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that in the past few months, especially in the first quarter, second-hand house prices have soared. Normal state.
The real estate market itself should not skyrocket. The slowdown in second-hand housing prices is a sign that the real estate market has returned to normal.
Not only are there policy controls, but the second-hand housing market has recently been frequently reported that mortgages have been tightened or even stopped.
According to media reports, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Nanjing have reported insufficient second-hand mortgage quotas, while Wuhan, Hefei, Chongqing, Hangzhou and other cities have reported that they have run out of quotas and are forced to "stop lending."
Zhang Dawei believes that at present, housing loans in southern cities have been significantly tightened, and the reason for the tightening is that housing loans are not enough.
The increase in the transaction volume of second-hand housing has made the already-supplied housing loan insufficient.
Zhang Dawei pointed out that the essence is that the property market is overheated. In 2020, including the first quarter of this year, the credit is oversupply. The housing loan itself is at a historical high and the rise in the same period is very obvious. However, the transaction amount of the entire property market is too large and the credit supply is insufficient, which makes the housing loan insufficient in disguise. , That is, housing loans are tightened, so the market result is that housing prices are still rising, but the rate of increase is decreasing.
Insufficient mortgage supply will inhibit market transactions, and subsequent second-hand housing market transactions will gradually develop in a stable direction.
In the first half of the year, the land market has “decreased in volume and increased in price”.
According to the China Index Research Institute’s land market report for the first half of 2021, in the first half of 2021, the overall supply of land in 300 cities across the country decreased by 6%, transaction volume decreased by 9%, average transaction price rose by 21%, and the premium rate rose by 1 percentage point. The total amount of the six-month transfer of funds was 2.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and the supply of residential land fell by 9% year-on-year.
In the first quarter, land supply and demand increased year-on-year, and the pace of land supply slowed down in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, there was a general trend of volume decline and price increase.
Beginning in February this year, 22 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have gradually piloted the “two centralization of land supply” policy, that is, collectively issuing announcements on transfers and organizing transfer activities. The announcement of residential land bids, auctions, and listings will be issued in three batches throughout the year. Organize the sale.
As of June 26, 21 of the 22 cities except Wuhan have completed the first round of centralized land auctions.
The China Index Research Institute believes that the policy of “two centralizations of land supply” will help stabilize market expectations, reduce the heat of land auctions, guide the rational return of the market, and have a positive effect on stabilizing the premium rate.
Contribute to the realization of the policy goal of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations".
However, according to data from the Centaline Real Estate Research Institute, after the first batch of dual centralized land supply ends, the land popularity has not diminished, and the premium rate has also increased compared with last year.
Specifically, comparing the residential land transfers completed in the 22 pilot cities for centralized land supply in 2020, the average land price has risen by 15%.
From the perspective of the premium rate, the first round of centralized land supply in 2021 also increased by 2% compared with last year.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin analyzed that such premium rates should be viewed objectively.
First of all, there are more land supply, and objectively there are more opportunities to obtain land, so the premium rate will be relatively controlled; secondly, the land premium rate itself is also affected by the supply of land, and some plots are relatively hot, and the land is located in the urban area. And other factors.
"The first batch of dual-centralized land supply actually has a cooling effect. Various constraints such as limited land prices in various regions have also objectively made real estate companies take the geographical position, basically consistent with the policy of'stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations'. Oriented." Yan Yuejin said.
Real estate tax will advance in the second half of the year? Expert: The future will be gradual and the possibility of landing in the short term is unlikely
On May 11, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments held a symposium on the pilot work of real estate tax reform.
The symposium proposed to listen to the opinions of responsible comrades of the people's governments of some cities and some experts and scholars on the pilot work of real estate tax reform.
Industry insiders pointed out that the phenomenon of "talking about taxation" actually exists.
Any new developments in the real estate tax law will trigger discussions in the market.
And the four departments including the Ministry of Finance gathered to hold a symposium, does it mean that the "Real Estate Tax Law" will be introduced?
What specific impact will it have on the real estate market in the second half of the year?
"Real estate tax is an important part of the long-term real estate mechanism. It will definitely be gradually advanced in the next few years. However, in the short term, the possibility of landing is unlikely. At least two or three years, the'real estate tax' should not be regarded as a market that interferes with the market. Indicators." Zhang Dawei said in an interview with Chinanet Finance: "From this symposium, it can be seen that the real estate tax will definitely be implemented in the future, but it will not be a recent thing."
Yan Yuejin believes that real estate tax may be piloted in major cities.
Yan Yuejin said that the real estate tax objectively helps promote the stability of housing prices and the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
The first mention of the "reform pilot work" this time has a strong vane significance.
And from the perspective of current real estate market management and control thinking, large cities are most likely to pilot trials first.
If the real estate tax continues to advance, what impact will it have on the real estate market?
Yan Yuejin believes that if real estate tax reforms are implemented in big cities and the cost of housing ownership increases, it will weaken the willingness to subscribe for first-hand housing, which in turn will promote the decline in housing prices or narrow the growth rate; second-hand landlords will also sell properties because of the reduction in potential income, prompting the market. The increase in the number of second-hand houses in circulation has pushed down house prices; from the perspective of real estate companies’ acquisition of land, it will objectively guide real estate companies to move to other prefecture-level cities or weak provincial capital cities, reducing the intensity of competition in the land market in large cities; The decrease in housing market enthusiasm and the increase in the inventory of housing will objectively reduce the pressure on the leasing market, which in turn will lead to a decrease in rents.