What is the impact of the price cut of pork below ten yuan?
Pork reserves will be purchased and stored to regulate the abnormal impact of the market and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the pig industry
At present, more and more citizens feel that the price of pork is cheaper. In large supermarkets such as Yonghui and Carrefour in Beijing, pork below 10 yuan reappeared. Housewives said, "Pork does not need to be calculated and eaten!" Consumers’ "freedom to eat meat" has been reproduced. What tests have the price cuts of pork brought to the breeding industry and management departments, and what impact will it have on the market?
Pig production is fully restored
Mission objectives have been completed ahead of schedule
According to the latest weekly monitoring data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on June 25, the national "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price Index 200" from June 18 to June 25 this year was 109.81, a decrease of 1.40 points from the previous week and a decrease of 2.34 from the same period last year. Points.
Among them, the pork price monitored that week was 22.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous week’s 23.62 yuan/kg.
In the same period last year, the pork price was 41.57 yuan/kg, which means that the current pork price has dropped by 46.5% from a year ago.
It is understood that the rapid increase in pork prices in my country last year was mainly due to the shortage of pork supply caused by factors such as African swine fever.
The latest monitoring data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that as of May, the stock of reproductive sows in my country has increased month-on-month for 20 consecutive months, and the goal of complete recovery of pig production has been completed ahead of schedule.
Previously, Xin Guochang, the second-level inspector of the Bureau of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, stated that the number of live pigs in my country has remained above 416 million, which is close to the level of normal years.
"If one reproductive sow can provide 16 fat pigs in a year to calculate, the number of fat pigs provided by the stock of reproductive sows in my country can reach more than 690 million in a year, which means that our country can now breed females. The amount of pigs is basically enough if the normal production efficiency is used."
It is also understood that the current pace of transformation and upgrading of the pig industry in my country is accelerating, and large-scale breeding is developing rapidly. The number of large-scale pig farms has increased from 161,000 at the beginning of last year to the current 180,000, and the number of newborn piglets on large-scale pig farms has increased by 58.8% year-on-year.
Nowadays, pig farmers also pay more attention to production efficiency, the elimination of low-yielding sows is accelerating, and the replacement of low-yielding sows with high-yielding sows to achieve industrial upgrading.
In addition, in April, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughter enterprises above designated size nationwide was 18 million, a year-on-year increase of 41%.
Pig farmers face the test of profit and loss
"Pork stocks" stock prices have shrunk sharply
With the continuous recovery of live pig production capacity and the increase in market supply, domestic pork prices continued to fall and dropped significantly.
In this context, despite the continuous recovery of pork consumption in my country's food and beverage industry, the price of pork in the market did not rise but fell.
The shrinking pork price has benefited consumers on the one hand, and greatly reduced the efficiency of breeding on the other. According to fixed-point monitoring data, the loss of domestic pig farms was 9.7% in May, an increase of 8.6 percentage points from April.
"The price of fat pigs for slaughter has approached the break-even point these days." This is a complaint from some pig farmers.
It is understood that before the outbreak of African swine fever in 2018, the cost of pig breeding in my country was about 12.5 yuan per kilogram, and the current increase has increased by 4.5 yuan.
Among them, the increase in corn prices has led to an increase in the cost of pig breeding by about 280 yuan per head.
At the same time, cost items such as disease prevention, piglet costs, labor costs, and depreciation have also increased to varying degrees.
According to monitoring, the current cost price of fat pigs for slaughter is around 17 yuan per kilogram, and the price monitored by the market is around 22 yuan. However, there have been some places where it has dropped to the level of 18 to 19 yuan, which is very close to the cost price.
Xin Guochang, the second-level inspector of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, pointed out that the increase in the cost of pig breeding is rigid, which means that once it rises, it is difficult to lower it.
Therefore, if pork prices are not suppressed, more pig farmers may suffer losses.
In fact, not only the small and medium-sized farmers are facing the test of the break-even point of pig raising, even the life of large-scale pig farms is not easy.
The “pork stocks” that dominated the stock market last year have not only lost their glory this year, but their stock prices have fallen by 20 to 30%, and some have even cut in half.
According to the statistics of Beiqing Daily reporters, among the listed companies involved in pig and pork raising, the share price of Shunxin Agriculture has fallen by more than 40%, and New Hope has fallen by more than 30%. Tianbang, Jinxinnong, Zhengbang Technology, Shuanghui Development, Wenzhou The decline in shares of the company's shares also exceeded 20%.
New Hope’s recent May live pig sales briefing revealed that its live pig sales increased year-on-year but its revenue fell year-on-year.
Similarly, compared with May last year, Jin Xinnong sold nearly half of its pigs, but made nearly half of its money.
Efforts to smooth the fluctuations of the "pig cycle"
Effectively regulate the market's abnormal impact
On June 28, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the central and local governments would start pork reserve purchase and storage, because the current national average pig-to-food ratio has entered the first-level warning range of excessive decline (less than 5:1).
According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, from June 21 to 25, the national average pig-to-food ratio was 4.90:1.
As we all know, when pork prices were high last year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments frequently put in reserve pork to stabilize prices. Now, facing the excessive drop in pork prices, the implementation of pork purchasing and storage in order to promote the smooth operation of the live pig market is obviously to alleviate the excessive drop in pig prices. pressure.
In less than a year, such changes are indeed too fast.
This is not the first time that the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a warning on excessive decline in pork.
Just a dozen days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a three-level warning of excessive pig prices, reminding farms (households) to make scientific decisions on production and operation to keep pig production capacity at a reasonable level.
The purpose of this series of "operations" is to institutionalize and institutionalize the empirical practices in the current round of government pork reserve adjustment, work hard to smooth out the fluctuations of the "pig cycle", effectively control the abnormal impact of the market, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the pig industry.
“When the price is too high, put in reserves to protect the consumption needs of residents, push the price to fall to a reasonable range, and avoid excessive expansion of live pig production; when the price is too low, start purchasing and storage to support the market, and give the farmers a reassurance. Avoid excessive phasing out of live pig production capacity," said the relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission.
Text/Reporter Zhang Qin