The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has improved its forecast for economic growth in Russia for 2021. According to the organization, the country's GDP will increase by 3.3%, not 3%, as previously assumed. This is stated in the report published on Tuesday, June 29, by the EBRD. According to the bank's analysts, in 2022 the Russian economy will continue to grow steadily and will add about 3%.

“Despite the double shock of falling oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian economy outlasted 2020 relatively well, shrinking by only a relatively modest 3%.

This state of affairs is partly a consequence of structural factors, including a large public sector and a relatively small service sector, but it is also due to the country's strong macroeconomic position at the beginning of the crisis, with significant reserves created over several years of sanctions, ”the EBRD noted.

It is noteworthy that in 2020 the decline in the Russian economy turned out to be less deep than in most countries of the world.

So, for example, the US GDP fell by 3.5%, Japan - by 4.8%, Germany - by 4.9%, Canada - by 5.4%, France - by 8.2%, and Italy - by 8%. ,nine%.

Such data are provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

First of all, the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic hit the service sector, as well as the work of small and medium-sized businesses in the world.

In these conditions, Russia found itself in a more advantageous position in comparison with a number of developed countries.

Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market "BCS World of Investments", spoke about this in a conversation with RT.

“In Russia, the service sector accounts for a little more than 50% of GDP, while in the eurozone this figure is about 70%.

Thus, a relatively low share of the service sector ensured the stability of the economy during a pandemic and a faster recovery as the acute phase of the crisis passed, ”Zeltser said.

A similar point of view was expressed in an interview with RT and

Valery Mironov, Deputy Director of the Center for Development Institute, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

According to him, small businesses most affected by the coronavirus occupy about 20% of the economy in Russia.

Meanwhile, in OECD countries, this value fluctuates around 55-60%, the specialist emphasized.

“Thus, the share of the affected sectors is less in our country, so we didn’t need how much voluminous measures of financial assistance to the economy, which were in other countries.

Our support totaled 3-4% of GDP, and in developed countries - about 10%, ”added Mironov.

At the same time, as the specialist noted, the measures of state support for the population and business made it possible to significantly curb the economic downturn in Russia at the end of 2020.

According to the economist, in this sense, one of the most effective was assistance to citizens in need in the form of direct payments.

“The government has allocated about 800 billion rubles for payments to families with children alone.

If this aid had not been provided, the economy would have fallen by about 4.2-4.5%.

The fact is that our direct support of citizens is more important than in other countries.

The less well-to-do strata of the population have a higher propensity to consume.

That is, when they receive money, they spend it, and do not accumulate it in banks, thereby supporting the economy, ”Mironov explained.

In addition to helping citizens, in 2020, the authorities agreed on the provision of concessional loans to companies to pay salaries to employees, as well as approved tax deferrals and a number of other regulatory exemptions for businesses.

According to Mikhail Zeltser, the actions of the authorities helped to limit the risks for the labor market and the growth of tensions in society.

According to the EBRD experts, the further situation in the Russian economy will depend on the acceleration of the vaccination process, which is still going on rather slowly.

In addition, geopolitical factors will be of decisive importance, as well as the state of affairs in the world oil market, experts are sure.

Recovery cost

According to the EBRD, from January to March 2021, Russia's GDP grew by 1% compared to the indicators that could be observed from October to December 2020.

The bank's specialists associate the positive dynamics with the restoration of the work of enterprises and the revival of consumer demand in the country.

According to the organization, from April to June, the level of activity in the Russian economy remained stable.

At the same time, the observed growth in domestic consumption creates risks of overheating, according to EBRD experts.

In particular, analysts point to a noticeable acceleration of inflation.

As previously calculated by the economists of the Central Bank, in early June 2021, consumer prices in Russia increased by 6.15% compared to the same indicator in 2020.

Note that the annual inflation rate became the highest in almost five years.

One of the reasons for the record rise in prices in Russia was the sharp rise in prices for most goods in the world, the Central Bank notes.

In addition, according to the regulator, consumer demand in the country is now growing at an outstripping pace, and enterprises have not yet managed to increase the supply of goods and services to the required level.

In these conditions, it becomes easier for companies to cover production costs by increasing the cost of their products.

“Inflation is the result of an imbalance between supply and demand.

The postponed effect of the consumer failure in 2020 was superimposed on the jump in prices in the commodity markets and interruptions in the supply of industrial goods, ”said Mikhail Zeltser.

Meanwhile, the specialist considers the observed jump in inflation to be temporary and predicts a gradual decline in indicators in the coming months. So, at the end of 2021, the growth rate of consumer prices in Russia may slow down to 5.5%, the specialist is sure.