Left aside in the face of the Covid-19 crisis, the pension reform could be the last major project of Emmanuel Macron's five-year term.
However, the systemic overhaul presented before the pandemic is no longer relevant.
Instead: a simple increase in the retirement age, more effective to implement but also more politically risky.
DECRYPTION
Among the subjects left open by the health crisis, the pension reform, which divides the entourage of the Head of State both on its form and on the schedule.
"You have to do it, but you also have to choose the right moment", summed up Jean Castex at
Le Figaro.
, while affirming that "it will not be the same" as that initiated by his predecessor, Edouard Philippe.
While the social accounts have been considerably burdened by the Covid-19, part of the majority pleads for an increase in the retirement age, a measure which could be taken as soon as the next budget is voted in the fall.
"There is a good atmosphere, the clubs want to invest, people to work, to go on vacation, to relive. We must let this dynamic flourish, we cannot do that now", retorts a relative. Of the president.
62 to 64 years old
If the subject still divides in the entourage of Emmanuel Macron, the supporters of a very strong and very fast signal on this question seem to take the advantage. The idea they defend is as follows: forget the systemic reform announced at the start of the five-year term, this universal pension system which has provoked so much opposition and which is very complicated to implement, in order to concentrate on a measure that is very simple to implement and will save a lot of money very quickly.
The legal age could thus go from 62 to 64 years to believe the newspaper
Les Echos,
which evokes this hypothesis.
The last increase in the legal retirement age was in 2010. It had gradually increased from 60 to 62 years.
There, we would go from 62 to 64 years at a faster pace than in 2010. The principle would be established this fall and the reform would be implemented during the next five-year term.
With a legal age of 64 by 2028 for generations born after 1964.
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Asphyxiate the right before the presidential election
The goal of the executive would undoubtedly be to forget the failure of the regional by striking a blow. To those who, in the macronia, think that it is madness a few months before the presidential election, the supporters of this reform answer that, on the contrary, it is the moment or never to pull the rug out from under the foot of the right, brought back into the saddle by its success at the regional level. It remains to be seen what will be the decision of Emmanuel Macron.
Remember, however, that in a restricted parliamentary calendar, including texts still in shuttle such as the Climate law, Emmanuel Macron has little room for a bill of magnitude. Progress on the care of dependency, signals in the direction of youth such as the extension of the "youth guarantee" are expected, while the executive is also seeking to occupy the security ground.