Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, June 19 -
Behind perspective NDRC warning hog prices: title
Xinhua News Agency "Xinhua Viewpoint" reporters Liu Kaixiong, Yu Wenjing, Zhou Mian, Zou Mingzhong
The National Bureau of Statistics released on the 15th the changes in the market price of important means of production in the circulation field in early June 2021. The current price of live pigs is 15.8 yuan/kg, compared with 36.8 yuan per kg in early January, which has fallen by nearly six in less than half a year. to make.
On the 16th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a three-level early warning of excessive fall in live pig prices, reminding farms (households) to scientifically arrange production and operation decisions to maintain pig production capacity at a reasonable level.
The volume of slaughter has risen sharply, and the oversupply drives down the price of pork
The reporter learned from a large supermarket chain in Beijing that the price of fine pork belly has dropped from nearly 40 yuan per catty at the beginning of the year to about 23 yuan, and the price of the back buttocks has also fallen from more than 30 yuan per catty to about 16 yuan today.
"Pork prices have been falling this year, especially in March and April." The supermarket meat salesperson said: "The current price is at the beginning of the year, and I can't even think about it."
Why did the price of pork fall so much?
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the price of live pigs has continued to fall due to the combined effects of factors such as the concentrated production of large-weight live pigs, the increase in imported frozen pork, and the weak seasonal demand.
"The sharp increase in the number of pigs for slaughter is the core factor, mainly due to the rapid recovery of pig production capacity during the year and the low number of pigs for the same period last year." said Chen Jiezheng, a researcher at Galaxy Futures.
"In one sentence, there are more live pigs currently being slaughtered." said Wu Shenshu, director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Department of Hunan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. As of the end of April this year, Hunan Province had slaughtered more than 15 million live pigs, not only a year-on-year increase of about 30%. , And it has been added for 19 consecutive months.
The Animal Husbandry Development Division of the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Liaoning Province said in an interview with reporters that in the first five months, it is estimated that the number of live pigs in Liaoning was 15.6 million, an increase of 30% year-on-year; 10.96 million pigs were slaughtered, an increase of 25% year-on-year; pork production was 950,000 tons. A year-on-year increase of 25%.
Increased investment in breeding and rapid expansion of production capacity
The reporter found in the survey that in the past two years, affected by the African swine fever epidemic, the number of domestic pigs for slaughter and stock has decreased significantly, boosting domestic pork prices and bringing high profits to the breeding industry.
At the same time, the local government has also taken corresponding measures to support the construction of modern farms in order to ensure a stable price of pork supply.
In this context, large-scale enterprises have rapidly expanded their production capacity and newly expanded farms.
According to Wu Shenshu, in Hunan alone, since September 2019, 926 new breeding farms with a scale of more than 926 million heads have been newly expanded, and 482 farms have been put into operation.
"Now the spot price of live pigs is close to the cost line of self-reproduction and breeding by leading companies." Li Qiang, deputy general manager of Xinhu Futures, believes that the expansion of large-scale breeding companies in the early stage has led to the continuous release of live pig production capacity.
In addition, a set of data from the China Feed Industry Association can also confirm the rapid recovery of pig production capacity.
From January to April this year, the total national feed output was 88.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%.
Among them, the output of pig feed was 41.17 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 74.2%; the output of egg, poultry, and aquatic feed declined year-on-year.
Liu Pingyun, dean of the Central South Branch of the Nanjing Design Institute of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that nowadays, pigs are raised in science and technology, and various input costs are high.
The starting price for a normal-scale (5,000 sows) pig farm is now 60 million yuan.
"It is only when the high profits of the aquaculture industry are spotted that capital will enter the market." An interviewed expert said.
All parties actively respond to keep the market running smoothly
"With the continuous recovery of live pig production capacity, the down phase of this round of the pig cycle has come. Although there will be a short-term rebound in the future, the overall weakness is difficult to change." said Lu Pin, a researcher at China Everbright Futures.
The decline in pork prices has temporarily benefited ordinary consumers, but the early warnings issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on the production side have caused great concern.
Now, the market is beginning to worry that the enthusiasm of breeding companies will be hit, which will affect the supply of pork and the stability of meat prices for a longer period of time.
Pig breeding companies have reached a critical point of break-even.
Xiong Lianqiu, chairman of Xiangtan Kexing Ecological Agriculture Co., Ltd. in Hunan Province, calculated an account for reporters: the comprehensive cost of each reproductive sow has reached 20,000 yuan, and an average fat pig needs to be shared for every 1 kg of meat produced. The various costs also rose to 8.5 yuan.
Muyuan, the largest listed company in the pig breeding industry, recently stated that it needs to improve its talent management and capital reserves to prepare for the coming winter of the industry.
On June 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and multiple departments jointly issued the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in the Pork Market to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices", aiming to strengthen the government's pork reserve adjustment work.
Subsequently, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed that it will closely monitor live pig production and market price trends with relevant departments, earnestly organize and implement plans, carry out reserve adjustments in a timely manner, and promote the smooth operation of the live pig market.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that in the next step, it will work with relevant departments to strengthen production and market monitoring, release information in a timely manner, and guide pig farmers to rationally arrange production rhythms; properly prevent and control African swine fever, and consolidate the results of recovery of pig production; The change rate of breeding sow stock is the core control indicator, promote the establishment of a regulation mechanism to stabilize the production of pigs, and prevent major fluctuations from occurring again; accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading of the pig industry, and promote the high-quality development of the pig industry.
All parties in the market are also taking active actions.
Since the beginning of this year, a number of futures companies have taken the initiative to tailor risk management plans for breeding companies in conjunction with live pig futures.
For example, GF Futures and Continent Insurance have jointly provided futures price insurance for more than 6,100 pig farmers in Yunyang County, Chongqing in the form of "insurance + futures".
30% of the project premium is subsidized by the Yunyang County government, 50% is advanced by the futures company, and the farmers pay only 20% of the premium.