Accelerate energy transition and enhance green action

【People's Livelihood Observation】

　　Determining the carbon peak and carbon neutral target is a major strategic decision made by the Party Central Committee.

The "dual carbon" target puts forward new requirements for the development of the energy industry.

my country is the country with the largest energy production and consumption scale in the world, and it is also a representative of countries with "coal-based" energy structure. It is not easy to achieve such a goal.

　　Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China first proposed "promote energy production and consumption revolution", the pace of my country's energy transformation has been significantly accelerated, which has not only laid a favorable foundation for the "14th Five-Year Plan", but also laid a good foundation for the realization of the whole society. The goal of "Double Carbon" has established firm confidence.

　　In recent years, the contribution of my country's non-fossil energy has increased significantly.

By the end of 2020, although non-fossil energy, including hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, photovoltaics, etc., account for less than 16% of total energy consumption, non-fossil energy has already accounted for the increase in energy consumption. From 13.3% and 29.7% in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and "Twelfth Five-Year" period to 40.6% in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period.

In the past decade or so, the contribution of non-fossil energy to the increase in energy consumption in my country has grown from the initial supplementary energy position to the mainstream energy that keeps pace with coal and oil and gas, and then grows into the main energy source during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. This significantly exceeds the 21.3% of oil, 25.5% of natural gas and 12.5% ​​of coal.

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is estimated that non-fossil energy will account for more than half of the increase in energy consumption. While non-fossil energy will become the absolute leader in the increase, it will also replace the fossil energy consumption in some regions, thus contributing to By 2030, the national carbon peak will make a substantial contribution.

　　At present, the pace of low-carbon construction of energy enterprises is further accelerated.

Beginning in 2013, non-fossil energy accounted for more than half of my country’s new installed power generation capacity for eight consecutive years, showing that my country’s energy companies have shifted their focus from thermal power to clean power.

For example, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” and “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the proportion of non-fossil energy in the installed capacity of my country’s new power generation equipment was 29.2% and 47.9%, respectively. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, this proportion reached 63.2%. It is even as high as 71.3%.

　　At the UN "Climate Ambition Summit" in December 2020, my country proposed that by 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts.

This means that my country's installed capacity for wind and solar power generation will double in the next ten years.

Since the beginning of this year, not only the five traditional power generation companies and many local power companies have put forward more ambitious clean energy development plans, but also steel, chemical and some Internet companies have also taken support for clean energy development as an important measure to implement the "dual carbon" goal.

The higher the consensus of enterprises on energy and low-carbon development, the clearer the path to achieve the "dual-carbon" goal and the more obvious the joint effect.

　　It can be seen that my country's clean energy equipment manufacturing capacity has achieved a leap.

The ninth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee proposed to build a new power system with new energy as the main body.

Traditional energy security is mainly to ensure the supply of energy resources such as oil and gas. The energy system with new energy as the main body depends on energy equipment to effectively use natural wind and light resources.

During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, my country's independent research and development of 10 MW wind turbines was put into operation, and the single-unit capacity doubled from the largest 5-6 MW at the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period; in 2020, a total of 7 wind turbine manufacturers in my country will enter the world The number of enterprises in the top ten has reached a record high.

Since the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, my country’s original technology has refreshed the world record of photovoltaic conversion efficiency 20 times, which is significantly more than in the past. The output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and photovoltaic modules has exceeded two-thirds of the world’s output, with silicon wafers even exceeding 95% of the world’s total.

my country's new energy industries such as electrochemical energy storage and electric vehicles are also growing rapidly during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.

my country has established a clean energy equipment industry with obvious competitive advantages on a global scale, which can not only strongly support the realization of my country's "dual carbon" goal, but also make a huge contribution to promoting global carbon neutrality.

　　The cost of new energy continues to drop rapidly.

Compared with the beginning of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the price of photovoltaic modules in my country has dropped by about 60% at the end of 2020. Compared with the beginning of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period and the beginning of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, they have dropped by 85% and 95% respectively. .

The price of wind turbines has also fallen by 35% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, and the current prices are only equivalent to 40% and 50% in 2005 and 2010.

The drop in the price of new energy equipment has significantly reduced the development cost of new energy projects.

In June of this year, the lowest winning power price for the latest photovoltaic power plant in Ganzi, Sichuan, was less than 0.15 yuan per kWh. The current parity demonstration price of wind power in Inner Mongolia and other places is also less than 0.3 yuan/kWh, which already has the advantage of competing with conventional thermal power.

Beginning this year, new projects such as wind power and photovoltaics will fully enter the era of unsubsidized "parity on the grid" and compete with other power sources on the same platform in the market.

　　Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is a tough battle. The replacement of fossil energy by non-fossil energy is bound to be a long-term process, and it will not be accomplished overnight.

To realize the orderly transformation of the world's largest fossil energy system, it is necessary to coordinate the relationship between development and security in the energy transformation process, properly resolve various contradictions, and resolve various risks.

But as long as we anchor the "dual-carbon" transformation goal, strengthen our beliefs, continue to steadily and steadily, and enhance our green actions, we will have enough confidence to realize this energy revolution with a wide range of influence, deep touches, and a long duration.

(Author: Gao Hu, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of China Academy of Macroeconomics; Su Ming, an associate researcher at the Energy Research Institute of China Academy of Macroeconomics)