Long-term outlook for the global aviation sector

IATA: Air navigation will return to pre-Covid-19 levels by 2023

Air traffic is supposed to double from 4.5 billion passengers in 2019 to 8.5 billion in 2039. À Archive

The aviation sector around the world is expected to re-start after witnessing a severe financial crisis as a result of the “Covid-19” epidemic, despite concerns about its impact on climate change.

In a new indication of trends related to the sector, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) stated that it does not expect air traffic to return to pre-pandemic levels before 2023.

However, air traffic is supposed to double over 20 years from 4.5 billion passengers in 2019 to 8.5 billion passengers in 2039. However, these numbers represent a decrease of one billion passengers from IATA’s expectations issued before the “Covid-19” crisis.

manufacturing plans

However, the numbers are good news for aircraft manufacturers that have reduced production during the crisis with airlines canceling orders to be able to financially survive the pandemic.

Airbus has already announced plans to accelerate the pace of manufacturing of its best-selling single-aisle aircraft, the A320, with an anticipation of a record high in 2023.

As for Boeing, it expects airlines to need 43,110 new planes by 2039, which means nearly doubling the global fleet.

Asia alone will contribute 40% of this demand.

travel demand

"As was the case with the September 11 attacks or the global financial crisis (2007-2009), the sector will once again prove its resilience," said Darren Halst, Vice President of Marketing at Boeing.

For his part, director of research at the Institute of Higher Studies in Social Sciences in Paris, Marc Evaldi, pointed out that only 1% of the population currently travels by air.

"Once the demographic increases and people get richer, the demand for air travel, and therefore for planes, will increase," he said.

Expected increases

And if the largest aircraft fleets are currently in the United States and Europe, the largest increases are expected in Asia and the Middle East, according to a study recently prepared by Oliver Wyman Consulting.

And in many emerging economies, where the middle class is expanding, air travel is becoming available to an increasing number of people.

Biggest goals

In addition, the CAPA Center for Aviation said that "among emerging Asian countries, the ability to travel by air is one of the most ambitious goals," noting that this represents an indication of social and economic maturity and makes room for experiences that were unthinkable.

The center ruled out that they share the growing feeling among some Westerners about the necessity of reducing air travel in order to reduce the carbon footprint of the individual.

He added, "For incoming travelers, the concept of 'stigma due to air travel' is quite surprising at a popular level."

"As a result, it is unlikely that stigmatization due to air travel will gain much momentum in Asia."

Fleggscam movement

The stigma due to air travel, or as it is called, “fligskam”, was launched from Sweden in 2018 in defiance of the increase in the popularity of air travel, which has boomed in Europe thanks to low-cost airlines, which have made weekend travel across the continent more accessible. For the public.

Environmentally friendly

Air traffic in Sweden decreased by 4% during 2019, but it recorded record rates across Europe, according to the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation "Eurocontrol".

Countries such as Sweden are starting to reuse night trains to give travelers more green options for travel.

France, which is also promoting the use of its night trains, is also reducing domestic flights when the journey can be made on trains in less than two and a half hours.

• “Boeing” expects that airlines will need 43.1 thousand new aircraft in 2039.

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