Mr. Fuest, have you been to the beer garden again?

Patrick Bernau

Responsible editor for economics and "Money & More" of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.

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    Maja Brankovic

    Editor in the economy of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, responsible for “Der Volkswirt”.

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      I've already sat on the terrace of the inn, but I haven't been to the beer garden yet.

      This shows that the crisis is not over yet.

      Was it too dangerous for you?

      I'm not someone who spends a lot of time in beer gardens anyway.

      But I also think that we have got used to the fact that not everything is possible at the moment.

      Much will start again very slowly, not just out of habit, but also because by far not all are vaccinated.

      Perhaps the new mutants will keep people busy.

      At the same time there is this great desire to go out again and meet people.

      We know at least one hotel that is 75 percent more expensive than a year ago.

      If there is a surge in demand now, prices will rise.

      That's how it should be.

      At the same time, it is still difficult for many companies to get people.

      And then there are still hygiene standards that mean that you have fewer guests.

      That doesn't sound too optimistic.

      We experience gastronomy first-hand, and things are not doing so well there.

      But it is only part of the economy.

      Manufacturing has been doing well for a long time, even better than before the pandemic.

      The industry also has problems: it lacks preliminary products.

      There are two types of shortages: one that results from the economic upswing - demand is high, factories are running at full speed, and therefore intermediate goods are running out.

      That is positive, because we want this upswing.

      Then prices have to go up.

      And the other kind?

      This is the more problematic one: it comes from factories being disrupted in their production, traffic routes disrupted or protectionism emerging.

      Then one speaks of supply-induced shortage.

      That would be bad.

      I think we see some of the positive forms of scarcity, but in some cases we also have increasing protectionism.

      And that just limits the offer.

      Aren't there also a shortage of labor?

      At least it seems that way when you try to win over a craftsman.

      Yes, and that's not just due to the pandemic, but also due to demographics.

      The number of people of working age in Germany is falling - this also limits the growth potential.

      This is one of the most important issues for economic policy in the next 10 or 20 years.

      Has the pandemic exacerbated the shortage of skilled workers?

      Educational gaps have arisen in schools and the number of training contracts has decreased.

      That is true, but on the other hand, the pandemic leads to a more efficient use of skilled workers, for example when digital technologies are used.

      The internet opens up great potential.

      You sit less unnecessarily on trains and planes.

      It also opens up access to professionals around the world.

      There are now more activities that can be done from the home office.

      So the IT person competes with colleagues from India?

      He does that sometimes today, but it will grow and it will spread to other professions, including doctors.

      If we do internet consultations, why not internationally?

      In some areas of medicine, for example radiology, we see that it is much more efficient if, somewhere in the world, specialists evaluate recordings.

      People with a high level of qualifications also face competition, but the shortage of skilled workers alleviates that.

      Does that solve all the problems on the job market?

      No.

      When skilled workers are scarce, wages have to rise.

      As an economist one would say yes: there is no shortage of skilled workers, only scarcity.

      It's like diamonds: they're scarce and expensive, but we're not talking about a diamond shortage.

      Anyone who complains about a shortage of skilled workers should raise wages.

      Now raise wages?

      After the pandemic?

      Some companies will not be happy about that.

      But this is how the market economy works.

      It's like with diamonds: the high prices also mean that people are excluded from the market.

      A lot of people would like to have a diamond ring, but they choose not to because it is too expensive.

      Thus, wage increases also have the function that skilled workers are not deployed in the places where they are less urgently needed.

      In this respect, wage increases are correct even if not a single skilled worker immigrates as a result.