In May, the CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year. How will prices go in the future?
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, June 9 -
Question: May CPI rose 1.3%, the future how to get prices?
Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun and Zou Duowei
The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 9th. In May, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.3% year-on-year.
“In May, all regions and departments continued to do a good job in ensuring supply and price stability, and consumer prices were generally stable.” said Dong Lijuan, senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.9% year-on-year. The increase was 0.2 percentage points larger than the previous month.
Specifically, food prices changed from a 0.7% year-on-year decrease in the previous month to an increase of 0.3%, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.05 percentage points.
In food, the price of pork fell by 23.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month; the price of freshwater fish rose by 33.7%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points.
Non-food prices rose by 1.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI's rise by about 1.28 percentage points.
Among non-food products, the price of transportation and communication rose by 5.5%, an increase of 0.6%. Among them, the prices of air tickets, gasoline and diesel rose by 32.3%, 22.0% and 24.2% respectively.
Dong Lijuan said that according to estimates, of the 1.3% year-on-year increase in May, the carry-over impact of last year's price changes was about 0.7 percentage points, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the impact of the new price increase was about 0.6 percentage points, compared with the previous month. A decline of 0.2%.
From the month-on-month data that can better reflect short-term changes, in May, the CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
Among them, food prices fell by 1.7%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7%.
Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Decision Consulting Department of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, believes that the month-on-month decline in CPI in May was mainly due to the overall continued decline in food prices, which played a "stabilizer" role in the recent period of price operations.
It is worth noting that with the continuous recovery of live pig production, the supply of pork continued to increase, and the price continued to drop by 11.0% month-on-month; the supply of fresh vegetables and fresh fruit was sufficient, with prices falling by 5.6% and 2.7%, respectively; due to reduced supply, increased demand and higher feed costs Influenced by other factors, the price of freshwater fish continued to rise by 9.9%.
With the steady recovery of the economy, the consumer market has accelerated its recovery.
The reporter saw at the Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market in Beijing that consumers were buying meat, eggs, vegetables and other agricultural products.
According to the person in charge of the agricultural product wholesale market, the current consumption of agricultural products such as fruits, pork and vegetables is prosperous, and the market is adequately stocked.
The price changes of "rice bags", "vegetable baskets" and "fruit plates" are not only economic issues, but also people's livelihood concerns.
As consumption continues to heat up, will prices continue to rise in the future?
Guo Liyan analyzes that looking forward to the latter part of this year, the production and supply of goods and services in the consumer sector will be abundant, especially the agricultural and sideline food market, and the production capacity of industrial consumer products will be sufficient. CPI has a solid foundation for maintaining stable operation and is expected to operate within a reasonable range with mild fluctuations throughout the year The price control target can be successfully achieved.
The data released on the same day also showed that in May, the national producer price index (PPI) increased by 9.0% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month.
Guo Liyan believes that in May, the PPI rose month-on-month, mainly due to the sharp rise in the prices of commodities such as coal, steel, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals.
The market generally expects that the current month-on-year increase in PPI has a high probability of being the annual high.
"Looking forward to the latter part of this year, factors such as the transmission of international commodity prices, rising shipping costs, and easing global liquidity may continue to affect the trend of my country’s PPI, superimposing the low base effect of the same period last year. With the release of the guiding role of price signals and the emergence of the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, PPI will generally show a downward trend in the later period." Guo Liyan said.