Financial World: Many international organizations raised their expectations for the warming of the global economy?

(Financial World) Many international organizations have raised their expectations that the global economy is warming up?

　　China News Service, Beijing, June 9 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) Recently, many international organizations and institutions have raised their expectations for global economic growth this year, believing that the economic outlook will improve significantly.

However, it may not be time to breathe a sigh of relief.

　　In its latest report, the World Bank predicts that the global economic growth rate will reach 5.6% in 2021, 1.5 percentage points higher than the revised estimate in January.

This will be the fastest growth rate in the world since the recession in 80 years.

Data map: Bank staff count currency.

Zhang Yunshe

　　Some forecasts are more optimistic.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) believes that thanks to the vaccination campaign and the large-scale economic stimulus policies implemented by the United States, the global economy has now returned to the level of activity before the epidemic, and growth prospects are improving.

The OECD predicts that the world economic growth rate will reach 5.8% and 4.4% respectively this year and next, which are 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points higher than the forecast in March.

　　According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy will grow by 6% in 2021, up 0.5% from the January forecast.

　　But analysts believe that there are many hidden worries behind the strong recovery.

One of the most prominent problems at the moment is the "unevenness of suffering and happiness."

　　In fact, only a few major economies in the world have rebounded strongly, and many emerging markets and developing economies are still deeply affected by the epidemic.

The World Bank estimates that about two-thirds of the per capita income losses in emerging markets and developing economies will be difficult to recover before 2022.

　　Even within the advanced economies, there are obvious divisions.

In the United States, the economic recovery is accelerating, and consumption and corporate investment have risen sharply. Many analysts predict that the US economy is expected to grow more than expected this year.

However, Japan is suffering from slow vaccination and low potential economic growth rate, and its economic recovery is still faltering.

In the first quarter of this year, Japan’s real GDP fell by 1% month-on-month, and the rate of decline was 3.9% on an annual basis.

　　The more troublesome problem lies in the recurrence of epidemics in many countries.

In particular, the number of confirmed cases in India is increasing by tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands every day, and new variants of the new crown virus are emerging one after another, which not only seriously damages the domestic economy, but also profoundly affects the global shipping, medicine, textile, financial services and other industries' supply chains.

　　In addition, while the large-scale "water release" of the United States and other countries has boosted economic growth, it has also led to rising inflationary pressures and aggravated global economic uncertainty.

　　Deutsche Bank recently released a report stating that the Federal Reserve is tolerating higher inflation for a comprehensive and inclusive economic recovery. This intention not to tighten policy until inflation shows signs of sustained rise will have a terrible impact.

This may cause a severe recession and trigger a series of financial crises on a global scale, especially in emerging markets.

　　According to the report, ignoring inflation is making the global economy "sit on a time bomb," and the impact can be devastating, especially for the most vulnerable groups in society.

　　According to Wan Zhe, a researcher at the “Belt and Road” College of Beijing Normal University, this unprecedented “discharge” has driven commodity and asset prices to soar. While the global wealth creation capacity has almost stagnated, wealth represented by the stock market has increased.

If this situation continues, social contradictions will become more acute and will bring greater obstacles to the future development of the world economy.

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