Monetary policy still needs to maintain constant force
Our reporter Chen Guojing Qian Qingni Guo Ziyuan
The price level is one of the important reference indicators for the central bank's monetary policy operation.
Against the background of rising commodities and rising inflation expectations, what is the trend of my country's monetary policy?
Do you need to turn?
This is the focus of recent market attention.
Whether there is a need for monetary policy to shift, the key is to understand the main factors behind the rise in global commodity prices and inflation.
The People’s Bank of China recently released China’s Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the first quarter of 2021. It points out that global commodity prices and inflation are driven by three main factors: First, major economies have introduced large-scale stimulus plans, and the market generally expects aggregate demand to increase. Tend to be vigorous; second, the overseas epidemic has rebounded significantly, and the global economy in the post-epidemic era has recovered faster than supply in stages; third, the central banks of major economies have implemented ultra-loose monetary policies, and the global liquidity environment has continued to be extremely loose .
Whether there is a need to shift the monetary policy, we must also consider whether the rise in commodity prices will be transmitted to my country's consumer prices and whether it will trigger inflation.
Recently, there are concerns that the continued rise in commodity prices will bring about "super inflation."
"There is no need to worry too much about overall inflation, and'super inflation' does not exist." For example, Guan Qingyou, Dean and Chief Economist of the Institute of Financial Research, believes that the recent upward PPI is mainly driven by overseas demand, superimposed on the asynchronous economic recovery at home and abroad, resulting The prices of upstream raw materials have skyrocketed, and production costs have risen sharply.
At present, the transmission of PPI to CPI is not smooth, so there is no need to worry too much.
Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI Securities, believes that PPI has finally turned positive this year after 15 consecutive months of cumulative year-on-year negative growth. The cumulative increase so far has been limited and has not yet been transmitted to the consumer side.
Obviously, it is far from "super inflation" now.
Rising global commodity prices may boost my country’s PPI in stages, but the risk of imported inflation is generally controllable.
The central bank also pointed out in the report that the transmission relationship between my country's PPI and CPI has been significantly weakened in recent years, and the fluctuations in international bulk commodity prices have a relatively low impact on my country's CPI trends.
In addition, the price of pork is generally declining, and the grain harvest has been harvested for many years. It is initially expected that this year's CPI will increase moderately. Due to external factors, it will be generally controllable and will remain in a reasonable range.
In fact, as a large economy in my country, if there is no superimposition of domestic demand, the rise in international commodity prices will not easily trigger obvious imported inflation.
my country's economic development is stable and improving, and the total supply and demand are basically balanced. There is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation.
In the opinion of industry experts, at present, the key to our country is to run its own affairs well. Monetary policy still needs to maintain its strength, with the word "stable" as the top priority to support the healthy development of the real economy.
Wang Yiming, a member of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee and vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, stated that monetary policy must maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and maintain the money supply and the scale of social financing to basically match the nominal GDP growth rate. It is necessary to avoid credit contraction and also Avoid strengthening inflation expectations.
At present, my country needs to cherish the normal monetary policy space and put the service entity in a more prominent position.
Zhang Xiaohui, Dean of the Wudaokou School of Finance at Tsinghua University, believes that in order to combat the economic impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some developed countries have injected a lot of liquidity into the economy in the past year.
In the fight against the epidemic, my country has not adopted flooding methods, nor has it adopted unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing, zero interest rates or even negative interest rates. It has used reforms to improve the ability of financial services to serve the real economy.
Regarding the subsequent monetary policy, the central bank emphasized in the report that the monetary policy must adhere to the word "stable".
Do a good job in cross-cycle policy design, take current and long-term into consideration, maintain the continuity, stability, and sustainability of macro policies, maintain the necessary support for the economy, stabilize expectations, accurately implement macro policies, and consolidate and expand epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development As a result, the economy is maintained within a reasonable range.
Faced with the differentiated impact of commodity price increases on different industries and different companies in my country, industry experts also reminded that we must pay close attention to comprehensively implement policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices, manage expectations in a timely and effective manner, and prevent market price fluctuations and disorder.
Zhang Xiaohui said that we still need to be vigilant about the short-term impact that the monetary policy shift in developed countries may have on my country’s financial system, and we need to pay close attention to changes in global asset price inflation and the possible subsequent financial over-leverage and financial instability, and to prepare for different inflation scenarios. To prepare for the next response, especially to properly manage expectations, and be vigilant against rising structural inflation leading to overheating of investment in some areas.
We must make good use of the "window period" in which the pressure for steady growth is reduced, strengthen structural adjustment and reform, and form a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the mainstay and mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles as soon as possible.
Our reporter Chen Guojing Qian Qingni Guo Ziyuan
Our reporter Chen Guojing Qian Qingni Guo Ziyuan