Chinanews client, Beijing, May 28 (Reporter Li Jinlei) The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has entered the 6.3 yuan era.
The recent appreciation of the renminbi has also aroused great attention from the financial sector. There are rare three major voices in seven days. What signal is released?
The central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar.
6.3 The coming of the meta era
The appreciation of the renminbi continues.
On May 28, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was: 1 U.S. dollar to RMB 6.3858, an increase of 172 basis points from the previous trading day, entering the era of 6.3 yuan.
In addition, the onshore renminbi-to-dollar exchange rate and the offshore renminbi-to-dollar exchange rate are both in the 6.3 yuan era, and the offshore renminbi-to-dollar exchange rate once exceeded the 6.37 yuan mark.
Looking back on May 28 a year ago, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1277, and now it is 6.3858, which means that it has appreciated by 7419 basis points in one year.
The appreciation of the renminbi makes the money in hand more valuable, which is good for traveling abroad, shopping, studying abroad, etc., and also good for importing companies, but exports will be under pressure because of this.
Map of a basket of currencies.
3 voices in 7 days
The continuous appreciation of the renminbi has also aroused the attention of the financial sector.
Within seven days, the seventh working meeting of the State Council’s Financial Stability and Development Committee, the Central Bank, and the National Foreign Exchange Market Self-discipline Mechanism successively spoke on the RMB exchange rate, which is relatively rare.
On May 21, the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council convened its 51st meeting, requesting further promotion of the reform of interest rate and exchange rate marketization and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and equilibrium level.
On May 23, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, responded to a reporter’s question on the RMB exchange rate. The period is suitable for China's exchange rate system arrangements.
On May 27, the seventh working conference of the national foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism shouted to companies: Don’t bet on the appreciation or devaluation of the RMB exchange rate. Long-term bets will lose.
Data map: A pedestrian passes by the People's Bank of China.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Xinglong
What signal to release?
——The current exchange rate system will be adhered to for a long time
Recently, some scholars said that “the RMB will appreciate in the medium and long term, and the central bank will abandon the exchange rate target under the conditions of internationalization.” This remark has triggered heated discussions and is believed to have contributed to the appreciation of the RMB.
In the three official announcements, the latter two mentioned that the existing exchange rate system is suitable for China and will be adhered to for a long time.
This is also a response to the above remarks.
The seventh working conference of the national foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism clarified that a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies, is suitable for China's national conditions and should be adhered to for a long time.
-Not to use appreciation to fight inflation
Due to the current surge in commodity prices, some voices believe that in order to cope with the increase in imported commodity prices, the RMB exchange rate should be further appreciated.
However, the seventh working conference of the national foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism emphasized that the exchange rate cannot be used as a tool, neither can be used to depreciate to stimulate exports, nor can it be used to appreciate to offset the impact of rising commodity prices.
This is equivalent to saying no to the voice of using the appreciation of the renminbi to fight inflation.
CICC Macro also issued a research report on the 28th, stating that the appreciation of the renminbi is not to fight inflation.
From March to early May, the rising prices of domestic bulk commodities (steel, aluminum, thermal coal) took over international bulk commodities, which were mostly caused by domestic supply constraints rather than imported ones. The appreciation of the exchange rate had little effect on this. .
The bank staff counts the actual picture of the work.
(Data Map) Photo by Ai Qinglong
——Two-way fluctuations are the norm
"Two-way volatility" has become a key word for officials to judge the future trend of the RMB exchange rate.
Liu Guoqiang said that at present, my country's foreign exchange market is autonomously balanced, the RMB exchange rate is determined by the market, and the exchange rate is expected to be stable.
The future trend of the RMB exchange rate will continue to depend on market supply and demand and changes in the international financial market, and two-way fluctuations will become the norm.
The seventh working conference of the national foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism stated that in the future, there will be many market and policy factors that affect the exchange rate, and the renminbi may appreciate or depreciate.
No one can accurately predict exchange rate movements.
Whether it is short-term or medium- to long-term, the uncertainty of exchange rates is inevitable, and two-way fluctuations are the norm. Governments, institutions or individuals must avoid being misled by predictions and conclusions.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from Chinanews.com that in the next stage, as the global inflation level rises, the monetary policies of developed countries are showing signs of tightening, international financial market volatility increases, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be at a reasonable equilibrium level. Maintain two-way fluctuations.
Exchange rate data graph.
From Visual China
——Guide anticipation to avoid "foreign exchange speculation"
Tan Yaling, Dean of the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, told a reporter from Chinanews.com that a series of propaganda is also a correction for the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate.
Therefore, it is necessary to stabilize market expectations.
The seventh working conference of the national foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism emphasized that the key is to manage expectations and resolutely combat various malicious manipulation of the market and malicious creation of unilateral expectations.
Enterprises should focus on their main business, establish a "risk-neutral" concept, avoid deviating from risk-neutral "foreign exchange" behavior, and do not bet on the appreciation or devaluation of the RMB exchange rate.
Not only can financial institutions not help companies "speculate foreign exchange", they should not "speculate foreign exchange" themselves. Otherwise, it is not conducive to the steady operation of banks and will cause exchange rate fluctuations.
Liu Guoqiang said that the People's Bank of China will focus on expected guidance, play the role of exchange rate adjustment macroeconomics and automatic balance of payments stabilizer, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities, said that combined with the recent official statement on the exchange rate, it can be seen that the central bank does not preset the level of the RMB exchange rate, but is more determined by the market, and the exchange rate flexibility will be further increased. Only when there is excessive trading inertia in the market will appropriate guidance be given.
(Finish)