Viewing my country's Population and Economic Development in the New Stage from the Census Data
Duyang
The population issue has a bearing on the national economy and people’s livelihood, as well as long-term development.
Promoting the long-term balanced development of the population and actively responding to the challenges brought about by population changes are of great significance to maintaining the sustained and healthy development of the economy and society.
The main data results of the seventh national census have been announced recently.
The census held every ten years is an important survey of the basic national conditions with the power of the whole country. This census is just at the critical period when our country enters a new stage of development, implements new development concepts, and builds a new development pattern. Great attention from all walks of life.
It should be noted that population is an important foundation and core element of a country’s economic and social development. However, since population has been understood as a “slow variable” and “long-term variable” in the process of economic and social development, its social attention is obviously not as good as Some short-term indicators are high.
The wide impact of the seventh national census on the public has undoubtedly played a positive role in correcting this deviation. It is not only conducive to the formation of the broadest social consensus on population development, but also conducive to improving population-related issues in the future. Reduce resistance when making policies, thereby speeding up policy advancement.
Dialectical view of demographic changes
Judging from the current population data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, my country's population development has the following characteristics, which need to be viewed dialectically.
First, the low fertility rate will become a practical problem facing our country.
The fertility level determines the long-term growth trend of a country’s population.
The census shows that my country's total fertility rate for women of childbearing age in 2020 is 1.3, while the internationally accepted total fertility rate of 2.1 is the replacement level, and that it is lower than 2.1 is called the low fertility level.
It should be noted that the low fertility level is the result of economic and social development. The level of fertility is not only affected by policy factors, but also by economic, social, cultural and other factors.
The confirmation of the low birth rate in this census is extremely important for predicting the future trend of population development, and it also helps correct some of the deviations in the past.
At the same time, it is also of great significance to improve the population policy as soon as possible and avoid falling into the "low fertility trap".
Second, according to the data of the seventh national census, it is speculated that my country will usher in the peak of the total population in the future.
The number of births in my country in 2020 is 12 million, which is 2.65 million fewer than in 2019.
With a low fertility rate, it is easy for us to expect that the number of births will further decline in the future, and our country will also usher in the peak of the total population in the future.
After the peak of my country's working-age population in 2012, it will have a turning impact on the labor supply situation. As the total population reaches its peak, demographic factors will also have a turning impact on total demand. This is a change that needs our attention.
Third, coping with the aging of the population will be an important task in the economic and social development for a long time to come.
The census further confirmed the grim situation of population aging in the future. According to the latest data, my country's population of 65 years and over has reached 191 million in 2020, accounting for 13.5% of the total population.
According to the definition of the United Nations, a country with a population of 65 years and older as a proportion of 14% of the total population enters a moderately aging society.
From the data point of view, my country will soon enter a moderately aging society. Therefore, it is urgent to form a comprehensive and systematic strategy to deal with population aging as soon as possible.
Fourth, the size of the working-age population is slowly decreasing year by year.
If we define the population between the ages of 16 and 59 as the working-age population, the rate of decline of the working-age population deserves our great attention.
Although the information on the population of the 16 to 59 age group has not yet been released, the census data shows that the total size of the working age population of 15 to 59 is 89.38 million, a decrease of 45.24 million compared with the 939.62 million in 2010; at the same time; , The proportion of the population aged 15 to 59 in the total population decreased by 6.79 percentage points compared with 2010.
In the future, it will be more difficult to deal with the challenge of the rapid decrease in labor supply.
The census data also provided some unexpected results. For example, the proportion of children between the ages of 0 and 14 has increased by 1.35 percentage points from 2010. Although more detailed data is needed to analyze the reasons for the growth, this increase may It mainly comes from the release of the long-term accumulated willingness to bear children brought about by the adjustment of the fertility policy.
In addition, the improvement of the gender structure, especially the significant increase in the education level of the population, is also a positive factor that deserves our attention.
For example, the average number of years of education of the working-age population between the ages of 16 and 59 has increased from 9.67 years in 2010 to 10.75 years.
This shows that the continuous improvement of the quality and quality of our population will provide an important foundation for high-quality economic development in the future.
Systematic formulation of population policies
The population problem has always been an overall, long-term, and strategic issue facing our country.
Strengthening the forward-looking and strategic research on population development, and formulating population-related strategies and policies in a targeted manner are what we must do now.
In view of the fact that the seventh national census data provides the latest and most accurate population information, we should use this as a basis to improve various policies related to population factors as soon as possible, accelerate reforms in related fields, and better in the new stage of development To promote high-quality development.
First, we must improve the population policy as soon as possible.
From international experience, the decline in fertility is accompanied by the rise in per capita GDP, which is a universal law, and few economies can return to the upward trend after the decline in fertility.
However, the typical characteristics of my country's low fertility level are: the current low fertility level is ahead of the level of economic development, and the fertility rate is also lower than the average level of developed countries.
This means that there are some individual factors in the formation of my country's low birth rate, and it also means that it is possible to curb the trend of further decline in the fertility rate by adjusting the population policy.
By deepening reforms and further improving the birth policy, the diversified childbirth wishes of different families can be met and a more natural family structure can be formed.
At the same time, the focus of relevant social policies on reducing the cost of childbirth and upbringing will also help curb the further decline in the fertility rate.
Second, we must adopt a systematic strategy to actively respond to the aging of the population.
In 2020, my country’s elderly population aged 65 and above will reach 191 million, accounting for more than a quarter of the world’s population of the same age group. This means that based on its own economic development, raising resources for the elderly and building a retirement security system are a response to the population. The cornerstone of aging.
"Wide coverage and basic guarantee" are still important principles that must be adhered to in the construction of the pension system.
At the same time, the characteristic of "getting old before getting rich" is still obvious.
my country will enter a moderately aging society. Compared with other countries that have entered a moderately aging society, my country's economic development level is still relatively low, and the per capita pension resources are still seriously insufficient, and a certain development speed must be maintained to cope with the aging of the population. Provide the basis for chemistry.
In the future, my country's population aging will show a trend of accelerated development, and it will become a key factor affecting my country's economic and social development in the new stage.
Because the rapid population aging will have an adverse effect on expanding the scale of labor supply and improving total factor productivity, it may lead to a decline in potential growth rates.
Therefore, it is necessary to change the situation of responding to population aging only by changing population policies, pension systems, etc., and fully consider the interrelationship of population aging on economic growth, savings and consumption, and macroeconomic balance, and adopt a systematic strategy. Actively respond to the aging of the population.
Third, we must scientifically deal with the impact of demographic factors on the demand side.
After the population reaches its peak, how to deal with the impact of population decline on economic and social development, there are not many international experiences that can be used for reference, and the impact on a country with a large economy and population such as my country is even more specific.
In this regard, we must promptly study the impact of the total population on the demand side on economic development after the peak of the total population, accelerate reforms in related fields, and minimize the negative impact of population reduction on economic development.
After population development has passed the turning point of total change, the impact of residents' disposable income growth and equal income distribution on total demand will be more obvious, and reforms should be strengthened in related areas to hedge against the disadvantages caused by changes in demographic factors. influences.
In short, population is the main body of social production and life and the foundation of economic and social development.
The population status is the most basic national condition of a country, and the census is an important means to find out the “family” of the population.
Judging from the currently published information, the seventh national census produced high-quality data results and formed valuable data resources.
This is the result of the great attention of the Party Central Committee and the State Council and the active participation of the people across the country. It is of great significance for understanding the basic national conditions.
The huge data resources formed by the population census contain extremely rich information. Scholars in related fields should be encouraged to participate together, strengthen the development and utilization of data, and make this treasure a treasure for my country to implement new development concepts, build new development patterns, and realize in the new development stage. Scientific decision-making plays a more active role.
(The author is a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Xi Jinping Thoughts on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era)