It has been pointed out that the rainy season may be prolonged, but this summer after the rainy season, the supply and demand of electricity is expected to be the most severe in the last few years in many areas such as the Tokyo metropolitan area and the Kansai area.
Due to the decrease in supply capacity due to the suspension or abolition of aging thermal power plants, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has taken measures to secure a stable supply, such as calling on households and businesses to use electricity efficiently at a meeting of experts. I summarized it.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expects that the supply and demand of electricity will be severe this summer due to the decrease in supply capacity due to the suspension or abolition of aging thermal power plants.
At the subcommittee of the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy held on the 25th, the outlook for the "reserve ratio", which indicates the surplus power supply capacity, was presented.
According to this, the "reserve rate" will
drop to
3.7%
in July in areas other
than Hokkaido and Okinawa, and to
3.8% in August in seven areas of Honshu and Shikoku
.
This assumes an intense heat of about once every 10 years, but we anticipate the toughest level in the last few years, barely exceeding the minimum reserve of 3% required for stable supply.
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Based on this is to discuss measures in the subcommittee, the power-saving request is not performed
in the ▽ home, no trouble, such as switching off the lights of the room you do not use while continuing to life as usual such as the use of cooling range To call for the efficient use of electricity.
▽ The company will request that in addition to saving electricity in offices and factories, it will take measures to curb electricity usage during times of high electricity demand.
In addition
, we have compiled measures to request electric power companies to carry out thorough maintenance to prevent problems with power generation facilities and to secure sufficient fuel.
On the other hand, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is in a more serious situation in many areas, such as the "reserve rate" in the TEPCO jurisdiction drops to minus when assuming a severe cold of about once every 10 years for the power supply and demand in this winter. As expected, we are urgently taking measures to secure supply capacity in the future.
Remaining capacity for power supply "Reserve rate" What is the outlook for each region?
This is the outlook for each region regarding the "reserve ratio," which indicates the surplus power supply capacity.
The reserve margin for this summer is expected to be the lowest in the last few years.
July is particularly severe, and assuming a heat wave of about once every 10 years, the reserve margin is 3.7% in all areas except Hokkaido and Okinawa, where there is plenty of power supply, and stable supply It is barely above the minimum required 3%.
▽ Within the Tohoku Electric Power jurisdiction, the maximum demand is 12.91 million kW (reserve rate 3.7%), while the supply capacity is 13.39 million kW.
▽ Within the TEPCO jurisdiction, the maximum demand is 55.44 million kW (reserve rate 3.7%), while the supply capacity is 57.5 million kW.
▽ In the Chubu Electric Power jurisdiction, the maximum demand is 25.76 million kW (reserve rate 3.7%), while the supply capacity is 26.72 million kW.
▽ Hokuriku Electric Power Company has a supply capacity of 5.24 million kW, but the maximum demand is 5.05 million kW (reserve rate 3.7%).
▽ Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. has a supply capacity of 29.37 million kW, but the maximum demand is 28.32 million kW (reserve rate 3.7%).
▽ The Chugoku Electric Power Company has a supply capacity of 11.19 million kW, but the maximum demand is 10.79 million kW (reserve rate 3.7%).
▽ Shikoku Electric Power Company has a supply capacity of 5.32 million kW, but the maximum demand is 5.13 million kW (reserve rate 3.7%).
▽ Kyushu Electric Power has a supply capacity of 17.13 million kW, but the maximum demand is 16.52 million kW (reserve rate 3.7%).
In August, the reserve margin was 3.8% in each area of Tohoku, Tokyo, Chubu, Hokuriku, Kansai, Chugoku, and Shikoku, and 6.8% in Kyushu.
The reason why the levels are the same in each region is that if there is a large difference in the supply and demand situation in each region, it is assumed that electricity will be accommodated. In that case, the reserve margin will be leveled.
In addition, when calculating the reserve margin, we anticipate that we will make the best use of it by shifting the repair timing of the power plant, but we also factor in the occurrence of troubles such as breakdowns.
However, if the heat exceeds expectations or if there are problems with the power plant, supply and demand may become even more severe.
Electricity supply and demand Abolition of thermal power plants against the background of severe outlook
Behind the difficult outlook for electricity supply and demand this summer is the decline in supply capacity due to the abolition of thermal power plants.
While solar power generation is becoming more widespread toward the realization of a carbon-free society, the operating rate of thermal power generation is declining and profitability is deteriorating. , There are a series of movements to abolish it.
Entering this year
▽ Port No. 1 and Port No. 2 of Tohoku Electric Power's Higashi Niigata Thermal Power Station
▽ Units 3 to 6 of JERA's Anezaki Thermal Power Station, an electric power company that integrates the thermal power generation businesses of TEPCO and Chubu Electric Power
In addition,
the new No. 1 unit of Kyushu Electric Power's Karita Power Station has
stopped operating.
As a result, the supply capacity of thermal power generation this summer was 111.23 million kW nationwide, excluding Okinawa, a decrease of 6.76 million kW compared to last summer.
On the other hand, although the supply capacity of renewable energy such as solar power is increasing, the total supply capacity has decreased by 3.59 million kilowatts compared to last summer without compensating for the decrease in thermal power generation.
Although there are moves to rebuild some of the abolished thermal power generation, the supply capacity of thermal power generation is expected to continue declining, and the deterioration of power supply and demand has become a structural issue.
Electricity supply and demand will be even tighter this winter ...
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expects that the supply and demand of electricity will become even more severe this winter even if it survives this summer.
Assuming a severe cold of about once every 10 years, the maximum demand is expected to exceed 53.24 million kW in the TEPCO jurisdiction in January next year, reaching 53.32 million kW.
For this reason, the "reserve ratio," which indicates the surplus power supply capacity, has dropped to minus 0.2%, and it is said that the situation will be serious.
In February of next year, the maximum demand is expected to be 53.32 million kW and the reserve margin is expected to be minus 0.3%, while the supply capacity of TEPCO's jurisdiction is 53.14 million kW.
Furthermore, in the areas of Chubu, Hokuriku, Kansai, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu, the reserve margin is expected to drop to 3% each in February next year, which is the level at which stable supply can be secured.
For this reason, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has
decided to shift the repair time of power plants, mainly within the TEPCO jurisdiction, to other than winter, and
to ask companies to cooperate in operating private power generation in an emergency.
If that is not enough,
we will consider requesting the electric power company to operate the power plant that is out of service.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is expected to accelerate the suspension and abolition of thermal power plants, and plans to proceed with institutional studies to curb the pace.
Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Kajiyama "Make sure to ensure a stable supply"
Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Kajiyama said at a press conference after the Cabinet meeting on the 25th, "A stable supply of electricity is indispensable for people's lives and economic activities. We would like to promptly implement summer measures such as requests to electric power companies and calls to industry, winter measures such as securing additional supply capacity, and responses to structural issues. " ..
Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato "Efficient Use of Electricity"
Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato said at a press conference in the afternoon, "Because it is not always expected that we can afford it, the people will continue to live as usual while using the air conditioner, while turning off the lights in the unused rooms. Please try to use it efficiently. "
After that, he said, "In order to avoid a situation where electricity demand is tight for this winter, we will consider supply-side measures such as promoting the operation of suspended thermal power plants, and will finalize electricity by around autumn. I've heard that it will decide on supply and demand measures. "
Expert "Balance is important"
Sumiko Takeuchi, director of the International Institute for Environmental Economics, which specializes in energy issues, said, "It is a structural issue that the supply side is frequently under pressure when electricity demand increases."
On top of that, "Electricity is an infrastructure in infrastructure. What kind of measures are necessary to secure a stable supply, and how to secure the environmental part is important. Energy conversion takes a very long time. So it is necessary to sit down and work on it. "