The national economy continues to stabilize and resume development (authoritative release)
On May 17, at a press conference of the State Council Information Office, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national economic operation data for April, showing that the national economy continued to stabilize and resume development.
"Generally speaking, my country's economic performance in April will be steadily strengthened and stabilized for the better." Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that the current global epidemic situation is still complicated, and the recovery of the world economy is very uneven; the domestic economy is recovering from the foundation. It is not yet firmly established, and some new situations and new problems have emerged in the development. "In the next stage, we must continue to seize the current window of stable growth pressure, implement scientific and accurate macroeconomic policies, and promote stable economic operation within a reasonable range."
Consumption will continue to play the role of stabilizer
Affected by the gradual increase in the base figure in the same period of last year, some economic indicators in April have slowed down from that in March, but the recovery trend of economic operations has not changed.
Production remained stable and rose.
In April, the national industrial value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year on average in two years, 0.6 percentage points faster than in March; the service industry production index increased by 6.2% year-on-year on average in two years. Although it has fallen back from the previous month, it still maintains overall The trend of steady growth.
The structure continues to be optimized and upgraded.
In April, the two-year average year-on-year growth of the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry was 11.2% and 11.6% respectively, which were 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points higher than that of all regulated industries. The growth momentum continued to be strong.
Investment continued to recover steadily.
From January to April this year, the two-year average growth rate of investment in the primary and tertiary industries has accelerated, and the investment in the secondary industry has turned from a decline to an increase.
Employment prices are generally stable.
In April, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from March.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year in April, maintaining a moderate upward trend.
Consumption growth maintains an expansion trend.
Compared with the same period in 2019, the total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 8.8%, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points faster than the first quarter; from the quarter-on-quarter data, the total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 0.32% from the previous month.
"Consumption maintains a stable recovery. There are many favorable conditions. In the first quarter, the contribution rate of consumption in the three major demands has risen to the largest. From a later point of view, consumption will continue to play the role of stabilizer and has very solid support." Fu Linghui said .
The price remains stable throughout the year, with foundation and conditions
In April, the national producer price index (PPI) rose by 6.8% year-on-year, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over March, a record high in three and a half years.
Why does the year-on-year increase of PPI expand?
Will the rising pressure of PPI be transmitted to CPI?
Fu Linghui introduced that from the perspective of the transmission mechanism, PPI will conduct CPI, but in general, because my country’s industrial sectors are relatively complete and the industrial chain is longer, the transmission effect of the price increase of upstream industrial products on the price of downstream products is gradually decreasing. of.
From the perspective of supply and demand, my country's economy as a whole is in the process of recovery, and the growth rate of many demand-side indicators, such as investment and consumption indicators, has not yet returned to the level before the epidemic.
From the supply side, the overall recovery of production and supply is relatively good, and the supply-demand relationship does not support substantial price increases.
From a macro policy perspective, facing the impact of the epidemic, my country has implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, supported weak links through precise control, and promoted economic stability and recovery through the “six stability” and “six guarantees”.
"We have not adopted a large-scale fiscal stimulus policy, nor have we implemented a monetary policy of'flooding flooding'. Therefore, from the perspective of fiscal and monetary policy conditions, we do not support substantial price increases." Fu Linghui said.
According to Fu Linghui's analysis, from the perspective of the whole year, the sustained recovery of China's economy is well supported.
Looking at external demand, the global economy continues to recover, which is conducive to the growth of external demand.
Looking at domestic demand, the market has recovered steadily.
With the improvement of employment, the increase of residents' income, and the improvement of the overall consumption environment, consumption's contribution to economic growth will continue to increase.
As far as investment is concerned, the current improvement in corporate efficiency is relatively obvious, and the capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises in the first quarter has reached a high level in the same period in history.
Market demand orders and business expectations are better, which is conducive to the increase in business investment.
Looking at the market players, a series of policies to support enterprises will continue to play a role.
A series of institutional tax and fee reduction policies introduced last year are conducive to reducing the burden on enterprises, and some structural tax reduction policies this year will also bring new opportunities for enterprise production and development.
my country is still in a mildly aging stage
According to the data of the seventh national census released recently, the total male population in my country is 723.34 million, and the total female population is 688.44 million. The total male population is more than 30 million more than the female population.
The population of more than 30 million is distributed in different ages. Among them, there are 17.52 million more men of marriageable age between 20 and 40 than women.
"Among young people,'more men and fewer women' is a realistic problem. But we should also realize that the establishment of marriage relationships is affected by many factors, and the age factor is only one of them." Fu Linghui said, with the "comprehensive second child "The implementation of the fertility policy and the change in fertility concepts brought about by economic and social development have resulted in a gradual decline in the sex ratio of the birth population in my country.
According to the seventh national census data, many people still believe that our country has entered a severely aging society.
Fu Linghui explained that generally speaking internationally, if the population of 60 years old and above accounts for more than 10% of the total population, the country will enter an aging society.
If the proportion is between 10%-20%, it belongs to the mild aging stage; 20%-30% belongs to the moderate aging stage; more than 30% is the severe aging stage.
my country's population of 60 years and over accounted for 18.7% of the total population. At present, my country is still in a mildly aging stage.
Our reporter Lu Yanan and Ding Yiting