Production demand continued to grow in April, and employment prices were generally stable.
The economy is operating stably and strengthening stably and improving (Rui Finance)
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 17th, in April, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 6.8%, and the chain growth rate was 0.52%. The total retail sales of consumer goods was 3,535.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. , The two-year average growth rate was 4.3%, and the month-on-month growth was 0.32%.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that from the situation in April, due to the gradual increase in the base figure in the same period last year, most production and demand indicators have fallen back compared to March.
However, judging from the two-year average growth rate and the month-on-month growth rate, economic operations continue to maintain a stable recovery trend.
At the same time, employment prices are generally stable, the development of new kinetic energy continues to grow, and business expectations and benefits have improved.
Generally speaking, the economic recovery situation has not changed.
Increased vitality of market entities
Regarding the performance of the national economy in April, Fu Linghui discussed three characteristics at the press conference of the State Information Office held on May 17.
First, production has been rising steadily, and demand has continued to expand.
In terms of production, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in April was 6.8% on average in two years, 0.6 percentage points faster than the previous month.
In terms of demand, the two-year average year-on-year growth of exports in April was 14.7%, faster than the previous month; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year-on-year on average in two years, continuing to maintain a steady growth trend; from January to April, the two-year average year-on-year average year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment An increase of 3.9%, 1 percentage point faster than the January-March period.
Second, employment is generally stable, and consumer prices have risen moderately.
In April, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
From the perspective of employment subjects, the unemployment rate of the 25-59 year old employment subject population survey was 4.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
In the first four months, the number of new jobs in cities and towns across the country reached 4.37 million, and employment was generally expanding.
In terms of prices, the consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 0.9% year-on-year, maintaining a moderate upward trend.
Third, the new drivers of development continued to grow, and the vitality of market players increased.
Among the industries above designated size in April, the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 11.2% and 11.6% on average year-on-year respectively, which was significantly faster than the growth rate of the added value of all industries above designated size.
From the perspective of market players, from January to March, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4 times year-on-year, with an average increase of 22.6% over the two years, maintaining rapid growth.
From the perspective of corporate expectations, the manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) and the service industry business activity index have both remained above the threshold for 14 consecutive months, and corporate vitality has continued to improve.
Conditional prices remain stable
In April, the producer price index (PPI) of industrial producers rose by 6.8% year-on-year, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month. The market is generally concerned about its future trends and its impact on prices.
Fu Linghui said that there are three reasons for the increase in PPI year-on-year: First, the effect of the lower base in the same period last year.
The second is the gradual recovery of the domestic economy and the gradual improvement in demand.
The third is the impact of rising international commodity prices on domestic imports.
"Among them, the main reason is that the base figure was low in the same period last year. Among the 2.4% expansion, the influence of the low base figure last year accounted for 62.5%. In the next stage, the influence of the base figure will reduce the uplifting effect of the expansion of PPI growth."
"From the perspective of the impact of PPI on CPI, PPI will definitely have transmission to CPI, but because China has a relatively complete industrial sector and a relatively long industrial chain, the transmission from upstream to downstream is gradually decreasing." Fu Linghui said, from In recent years, especially in 2016, the transmission of PPI to CPI is not so obvious on the whole. The main reason is that the downstream market competition is very sufficient and the market supply capacity is relatively sufficient.
Regarding the overall price situation, Fu Linghui said that it is conditional for prices to remain stable throughout the year.
At present, the CPI rose moderately. In April, it rose 0.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI was only 0.7%, which is a slight increase.
From the perspective of structural factors, with the recovery of live pig production capacity, pork prices have fallen year-on-year, falling by 21.4% in April, and food prices have been declining as a whole.
Looking at the whole year, food production is generally stable, stocks remain at a relatively high level, and food prices are expected to remain generally stable.
Focus on promoting high-quality development
In April, market sales maintained a recovery trend. Can this trend continue?
According to Fu Linghui, the two-year average growth of commodity retail sales in April was 4.8% year-on-year, which was the same as in January-March.
At the same time, service consumption has also maintained a recovery trend. Food and beverage revenue in April increased by an average of 0.4% year-on-year in two years, and fell by an average of 1% in the first quarter.
"From the perspective of consumption patterns, online retail continues to maintain rapid growth. From January to April, the average online retail sales of physical goods increased by 15.6% year-on-year in two years, 0.2 percentage points faster than January-March." Fu Linghui said In terms of physical store retail sales, the average growth rate in the two years has also accelerated compared with the previous month.
Fu Linghui pointed out that in the first quarter, the contribution rate of consumption in the three major demands has rebounded to the largest.
In the next stage, there are many favorable conditions for consumption to remain stable and recover.
As the economy recovers steadily, employment is expanding, and the income of residents in the first quarter is also increasing, which is conducive to improving spending power.
Consumers' expectations for the economic outlook are improving, which is also conducive to enhancing consumer expectations.
"From these perspectives, it is expected that the contribution of consumption to economic growth will continue to improve."
"Generally speaking, my country's economic performance in April was stably strengthened and stable and improving. From the perspective of the situation in the second half of the year, there is still better support for sustained economic recovery." Fu Linghui said, while also seeing the global epidemic The situation is still complicated, and the recovery of the world economy is very uneven; the foundation for domestic economic recovery is not yet solid, and some new situations and problems have emerged in the course of development.
In the next stage, it is necessary to consolidate the foundation for economic recovery growth, keep the economy operating within a reasonable range, focus on promoting high-quality development, and strive to build a new development pattern, and promote the sustained and healthy development of the economy and society.
Reporter: Qiu Haifeng