On the 18th, the Cabinet Office will announce GDP = Gross Domestic Product from January to March.
Private forecasts show that the state of emergency will have turned negative for the first time in three quarters, and as a result, last year's annual GDP will also be significantly negative.
The Cabinet Office will announce preliminary GDP figures from January to March at 8:50 am on the 18th.
The average forecast of 37 private economists compiled by the Japan Center for Economic Research, a public interest incorporated association, is that the real growth rate excluding price fluctuations is minus 4.6% when converted to an annual rate.
It is forecast to be negative for the first time in three quarters since the historic plunge of minus 29.3% from April to June last year.
According to forecasts, "personal consumption," which accounts for more than half of GDP, turned negative for the first time in three quarters due to the impact of the state of emergency issued in January, and "exports," which have driven the economic recovery, sharply It is expected to slow down.
In addition, the forecast for the annual GDP for the previous fiscal year and 2020, which is also announced, shows that the real growth rate compared to the previous fiscal year is minus 4.8%.
This forecast has fallen by more than minus 3.6% in fiscal 2008, when the Lehman shock occurred, and is likely to reiterate the magnitude of the impact of the new coronavirus on the Japanese economy.
There is also a difference in the recovery pace
Looking at changes in global GDP, there are differences in the pace of economic recovery depending on the status of the spread of infection.
The effects of US vaccination and large-scale economic measures
Looking at the growth rate of real GDP from January to March compared to the previous three months, the United States recorded an annualized increase of 6.4%, the third consecutive quarter of positive growth.
In addition to the spread of vaccination and the return of economic activity, the effects of large-scale economic measures have also emerged.
Expansion of production activities of Chinese companies
In China, although it is not an annualized rate, it increased by 0.6%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive growth.
Exports of electronic devices and other products were strong due to rising global demand for nesting, and corporate production activities and real estate development investment continued to expand.
Strict restrictions on economic activities due to Eurozone mutant virus
On the other hand, Europe, like Japan, is at a standstill in recovery.
In 19 euro area countries such as Germany and France, the annualized rate was minus 2.5%, the second consecutive quarter of negative growth.
The mutated virus made the spread of the infection serious again, and it echoed that economic activities and going out were severely restricted in each country.