Chinanews client, Beijing, May 11 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 11th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April.

Many agencies predict that the CPI in April may continue to rise year-on-year due to rising tail-raising factors.

CPI ups and downs chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

April CPI year-on-year increase may continue to rise

  The negative impact of tail-lifting has greatly weakened. The CPI in March has changed from a 0.2% year-on-year decrease in the previous month to a 0.4% increase. How will the CPI change in April?

  According to the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in April, the “Agricultural Wholesale Price 200 Index” dropped by 1.85 points year-on-year.

Among them, the average wholesale price of pork (white strip meat) was 32.27 yuan/kg, down 28.1% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of vegetables rose 1.3% year-on-year.

  “Since the beginning of April, the prices of fresh vegetables and other edible agricultural products have declined month-on-month, which is consistent with the seasonal fluctuations of previous years. The preliminary estimate is that the prices of edible agricultural products have fallen by 4.6% month-on-month. However, due to the significant decline in food prices during the same period in previous years, the year-on-year change is not obvious. "Said Liu Xuezhi, a senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center.

  “Retail fuel prices have been lowered once in April. With the recovery of offline consumption, non-food prices will tend to increase as a whole.” Liu Xuezhi pointed out that the carryover factor in April was 0.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from March. , Affected by the increase in tail-lifting factors, the year-on-year increase in CPI has expanded and is expected to be between 0.9% and 1.1%, with a median value of 1%.

  According to statistics from Flush iFinD, the average forecast of the April CPI year-on-year growth rate of 19 institutions is 0.98%.

If the above average forecast is fulfilled, the April CPI will continue to rise year-on-year.

Data map: Citizens are buying pork.

Photo by Sun Rui

What is the future trend of CPI year-on-year?

  Monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that from April 30 to May 7, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 30.43 yuan/kg, down 3.1% month-on-month and 30.7% year-on-year; the average price of 19 kinds of vegetables was 3.56 yuan/kg. A year-on-year decrease of 0.8%.

  However, it should be noted that “under the influence of monetary easing policies in major economies such as the United States, global commodity prices continue to rise.” Li Kuiwen, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Statistical Analysis Department, said at a press conference on April 13 As of March, the import price of iron ore increased year-on-year for 7 consecutive months, and the import price of copper ore increased year-on-year for 11 consecutive months.

  On the one hand, the prices of food such as pork continue to fall, and on the other hand, the prices of bulk commodities continue to rise. How will this change the CPI year-on-year in the future?

  Qin Tai, a macro analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, believes that the continuous fall in meat prices in the CPI has driven food prices down, which to some extent offsets the effect of pushing up the CPI caused by the transmission of PPI to the price of CPI finished products. However, if the PPI continues to be high, it is optional. Consumer demand will inevitably be suppressed.

The CPI is expected to rise by 1.4% year-on-year in the second quarter and to around 1.9% in the fourth quarter. The annual average year-on-year average is expected to be 1.2%.

  "Bulky commodity prices do not have the basis for long-term rise. At present, my country's economy has been deeply integrated into the global economy, and price trends will be objectively affected by external factors, but this transmission effect is generally limited and controllable." National Development and Reform Commission News Spokesperson Meng Wei said that the overall judgment is that prices will run within a reasonable range for a period of time in the future.

It is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI this year will show a moderate upward trend, which can be kept within the annual price control target.