The economic data of 31 provinces in the first quarter have been released. As all provinces are showing a recovery trend, there is a dark horse that shines.

　　In the first quarter of this year, Hainan ranked second with a 19.8% GDP growth rate, second only to Hubei, and ranked second with a two-year average growth rate of 7%, second only to Tibet.

Due to the peculiarities of the epidemic last year, Hainan's growth rate ranking can be described as "the name of the Asian real world champion."

　　From the two-year average growth rate, it is more practical that Hainan surpassed Guizhou, which has been the leader for many years.

Does this mean that China's growth champion is changing again, and Hainan will take over as the new leader in the future?

　　The brightest dark horse in the first quarter

　　Judging from the first quarter economic data released by 31 provinces, GDP growth rates are all double digits.

Eight provinces including Hubei, Hainan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong, Jiangxi and Chongqing outperformed the national growth rate of 18.3%, and Hubei ranked first with a growth rate of 58.3%.

　　As the first quarter of this year is affected by factors such as the low base in the same period of 2020, the two-year average growth rate in 2019 can better reflect the actual situation.

From the two-year average growth rate, Tibet ranks first with 8.9%, Hainan ranks second, and Guizhou ranks third with 6.8%.

　　In the first quarter of last year, Hubei suspended work and production under the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and its GDP growth rate dropped sharply. The data in the first quarter of this year appeared to be exceptionally high.

Tibet was less affected by the epidemic last year, and its economy was also small.

Therefore, among these two indicators, Hainan's growth rate is the most eye-catching, which arouses more attention.

　　In fact, at the beginning of this year when various localities set economic targets, Hainan was quite different.

　　China Business News combed through public data and found that 16 of the 31 provinces, that is, more than half of the provinces, the expected GDP growth target for this year is above 6% or 6% to 7%.

Tibet, Guizhou, and Yunnan, the top three growth rates in 2020, are targeting 9%, 8%, and over 8% respectively this year.

Hainan has set its growth target for 2021 at a growth rate of more than 10%, which is the same as Hubei.

　　Hainan's confidence lies in the construction of a free trade port.

In 2020, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Overall Plan for the Construction of Hainan Free Trade Port", and the policy effects of the construction of the free trade port have already appeared.

　　According to the Hainan Provincial Government’s work report, in 2020, the number of new market players will increase by 30.9%, the number of newly established companies will increase by 113.7%, ranking first in the country, and a total of 64 headquarters companies will settle in.

The "New Deal" for duty-free islands promoted annual sales to double.

315 projects were signed and 538 were started.

122,000 talents were introduced, an increase of 177% over the previous year.

　　Hainan's performance in the first quarter of this year has become more "dark horse".

　　Wang Yu, deputy director of the Hainan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that even after deducting the base impact, Hainan’s main indicators still have a relatively high growth rate. The two-year average GDP growth rate is still 7.0%, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019; Driven by the strong investment, fixed asset investment increased by an average of 8.8% in two years, which is close to the growth rate of 2016-2017 before real estate regulation; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by an average of 5.3% in two years, and the growth rate has returned to the level of 2019.

　　In comparison with national data, Hainan also performed outstandingly.

For example, from the two-year average growth rate, Hainan’s GDP in the first quarter was 2.0 percentage points better than the country’s, fixed asset investment was better than the country’s 5.9 percentage points, and total retail sales of consumer goods were 1.1 percentage points better than the country’s.

　　Is Hainan's leading era coming?

　　Hainan’s lead may not only be a single quarter or a single year, but may become a long-term leader in the coming years.

　　The outline of the "14th Five-Year Plan" of Hainan Province clearly stated that by 2025, the province's economy will achieve high-quality development, the economic growth rate will be among the highest in the country, the GDP will achieve an average annual growth of more than 10%, and the per capita GDP will reach a new level.

　　Comparing the target positioning of other provinces with the fastest growth rate, we can see this trend in the future.

　　Guizhou Province’s "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need to maintain an economic growth rate higher than the national average, with an average annual growth rate of regional GDP of about 7%.

The target set out in the "14th Five-Year Plan" of Yunnan Province is an average annual growth rate of 7.5% to 8%.

The expected growth target for Tibet during the 14th Five-Year Plan is also 7.5%.

　　According to the development of this plan, Hainan will become the new leader of China's economy.

In fact, in the past 20 years, China's provincial growth champions have changed four, each leading the way for several years.

　　From 2002 to 2009, the GDP growth rate of Inner Mongolia was 13.2%, 17.9%, 20.5%, 21.6%, 18%, 19%, 17.2% and 16.9%, ranking first in the country for eight consecutive years; in 2010, Tianjin succeeded Inner Mongolia Boarded the championship position.

From 2010 to 2013, it increased by 17.4%, 16.4%, 13.8% and 12.5% ​​respectively.

　　After Tianjin, Chongqing became the growth champion from 2014 to 2016, with GDP growth rates of 10.9%, 11%, and 10.7% respectively.

Since then, Guizhou, well-known for its big data industry, has led the country with GDP growth rates of 10.2%, 9.1%, and 8.3% in 2017-2019.

　　These changes in the leading provinces not only reflect their own struggles, but also reflect the course of history.

　　During the heavy chemical industry at the beginning of this century, strong demand for resource products supported the high growth of Inner Mongolia; Tianjin’s summit was a continuation of the characteristics of this era, the scale of fixed investment expanded, and the equipment manufacturing industry boomed; Chongqing and Guizhou were reflected in the international financial crisis. After that, the trend of international industry transfer.

　　In the first quarter of this year, Hainan’s GDP growth rate surpassed that of Guizhou, does it herald new changes?

　　In 2020, under the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Tibet leads with 7.8%, while Guizhou still maintains a 4.5% growth.

In fact, Yunnan has been competing with Guizhou in recent years. From 2017 to 2020, Yunnan will have a strong impact on Guizhou with 9.5%, 8.9%, 8.1% and 4% growth rates.

But judging from the trend this year, the "terminator" of Guizhou's growth champion may not be Yunnan, but Hainan.

　　According to the Hainan Free Trade Port construction plan, by 2025, a free trade port policy and system system focusing on trade freedom and investment freedom and convenience will be initially established.

By 2035, it will become a new highland for my country's open economy.

By the middle of this century, a high-level free trade port with strong international influence will be established in an all-round way.

　　The construction of large-scale free trade port infrastructure and rules and systems will release Hainan’s growth potential from both soft and hard aspects.

　　Judging from the data in the first quarter of this year, Wang Yu said that other for-profit service industries, mainly emerging service industries, and the wholesale and retail industries contributed to GDP growth by 7.6 percentage points. The information transmission software and information technology services, leasing in the emerging service industries And business service industries respectively drove 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points; industrial investment excluding real estate drove an increase of 5.3 percentage points; outlying island duty-free goods doubled, which drove the province’s total retail sales of consumer goods to increase by 32.8 percentage points.

　　Overall, the construction of the free trade port has continued to show results, emerging industries have gradually become new engines of economic growth, industrial investment has gradually become a new driving force for investment growth, and new business formats have gradually become a new cloud ladder for Hainan's consumption growth.

　　Author: Li Xiuzhong