Chinanews client, Beijing, April 27 (Zuo Yukun) Since the central government first proposed in 2016 that "houses are for living, not for speculation," the positioning of "housing for housing is not for speculation" has now become popular.
However, in recent months, the property market has continued to heat up, and the continued rise in housing prices in hot cities has made many people wonder: Is there any way to curb the rise in housing prices in hot cities?
Data map: real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
The housing market spreads to second- and third-tier cities
Recently, "Hefei + 35 years old" has become a hot topic.
Some netizens expressed their confusion about the “restricted age limit under 35” policy for new house lottery qualifications in Hefei, Anhui. The Hefei Housing Security and Real Estate Administration later responded that the Hefei Real Estate Regulation New Deal did not exclude home buyers over 35 years of age. Eligibility, for buyers over 35 years of age who have the qualifications to buy a house, they can participate in the lottery purchase of ordinary house buyers.
This actually originated from Hefei's New Deal on the property market released on April 6, covering eight aspects including the degree system, second-hand housing purchase restrictions in popular areas, and the "lotter + sales restriction" of hot real estate. Its core purpose is to suppress the rising housing prices in Hefei.
Because the housing prices in Hefei, a second-tier city, have been rising for 10 consecutive months.
Data map: real estate under construction.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
"Since the beginning of this year, first-tier cities have increased regulation, and the property market has shown signs of transition from first-tier cities to hot second-tier cities." said Chen Xiao, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center.
"House prices in big cities are unattainable. It's better to turn around and go to the second-tier cities to find a'Bashi' life." Hefei is one of the representatives of the continued rising housing prices in second- and third-tier cities.
The "China Housing Big Data Analysis Report (Q1 2021)" shows that in March 2021, the comprehensive housing prices in second-tier cities rose by 2.5% month-on-month, and the rate of increase increased by 1.6 percentage points from February, leading cities of all energy levels.
Among them, hot second-tier cities such as Ningbo, Dongguan, Hangzhou, Xi'an and Dalian led the rise.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, said that it is more difficult to cool down in second-tier cities and more policy intervention is needed. It is expected that the tightening of policies in hotspot cities in the second quarter will be further strengthened.
Pressure on rising housing prices increases, and regulation continues to increase
In the past four months, super strong policy pressures have started in first-tier cities and have already covered key second-tier cities.
According to rough statistics from the agency, as of now, from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission to major cities, there have been more than 150 real estate control measures during the year, including purchase restrictions, price restrictions, sales restrictions (value added tax), and loan restrictions. Strictly investigate the inflow of illegal funds such as operating loans, the settlement of talents, the supply of land, and the rectification of intermediaries.
Data map: A real estate development under construction.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
At the same time, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has interviewed, supervised and investigated the property market regulation in 13 cities including Guangzhou, Hefei, Ningbo, Dongguan, Nantong, Chengdu, Xi’an, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Wuxi and Nanchang since this year. Regulation is really rare.
A review found that these cities are basically at the forefront of the country’s housing price increase.
For example, in March, the second-hand housing prices in Beijing and Guangzhou once again led the country in terms of growth, with 1.4% month-on-month growth; followed by Xuzhou, Hangzhou, and Shanghai, which rose by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 1.1%, respectively; Tied for the first place in the country.
At the same time, the scope of the interviews of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is "bigger" and "fine", expanding from the first-tier to the second-tier and even the third- and fourth-tier cities.
Under the heavy pressure of supervision, local property market regulation has been precise to the districts. Cities such as Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Nantong have proposed "zonal regulation" and "one district, one policy."
In addition to strengthening the monitoring of housing prices in various places, a severe crackdown on organized real estate speculators is also underway. Recently, the "shenzhen house management investigation" has attracted considerable attention.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, said that the "shenzhen housing management was investigated", and it is self-evident that it has shocked all kinds of housing investment groups and community owners and real estate speculators.
Is there a good way to curb rising housing prices?
"In the short term, strict house purchase discipline and standardization of market transaction order are the key points; in the medium and long term, we must actively supply land, especially in large cities, and we need to continue to exert efforts in terms of total land supply and structure." Yan Yuejin told Chinanews.com.
Over the past decade or so, with the boom in real estate, all land sales income has been owned by local governments, which has become the main source of fiscal revenue for many cities, and some cities have suffered from serious "land dependence".
The big data of Gelonghui Pythagorean shows that among the 44 major cities it counts, 20 cities with “high financial dependence on land” will be higher than 100% in 2020, and the major ones with a degree of financial dependence on land between 50% and 100% There are 19 cities.
Data map: Aerial photography of the real estate project on the west coast of Haikou.
Photo by Luo Yunfei
"In the past few decades, these rapidly expanding'land policies' have helped the government accumulate raw capital at an unprecedented rate. At the same time, these land sales revenues have supported infrastructure construction in hundreds of cities in China, and have strongly promoted China. Economic development and urbanization and industrialization process." said Liu Shouying, dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China and member of the "14th Five-Year Plan" Expert Committee.
"However, with the decline of urbanization and the accumulation of many potential problems in the'land for development' model, the function of land as an engine of economic growth will no longer continue. The new round of land management system should be compatible with the transformation of China's economic development stage. ." Liu Shouying said in an interview with the media.
A review shows that since 2021, the "dual centralized" land supply system has been implemented in many places. 22 cities have formulated corresponding land control policies based on their actual conditions. Some local governments have implemented land price restrictions to prevent the increase in the price of "land flour". The price of "house bread" has risen.
The Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-rural Development disclosed that it will build a "real estate and land linkage, one place, one policy" mechanism, and guide housing prices to the land transfer link.
"It is expected that under the influence of the financial policy and the'dual concentration' policy, local regulations will continue to tighten, and house prices in the second quarter will generally remain stable, especially the decline in house prices month-on-month growth will be more common." Zhang Bo said.
In the view of some industry analysts, April may become an important node for the ups and downs of the property market.
"There is no room for slack in real estate regulation and control. The current national real estate regulation and control tone is clear, and the requirements for local governments are also clear, that is,'take the responsibility of real estate regulation and control of the city'." Yan Yuejin believes that timely detection of signs of rising real estate market The introduction of control policies can consolidate the existing control results and promote the subsequent stable development of the market.
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