"We will enter the trajectory of sustainable growth": the Ministry of Economic Development called the timing of economic recovery

The Russian economy may fully return to pre-crisis levels in the period from July to September 2021.

This was announced on Thursday, April 22, by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov at a conference of the Association of European Businesses.

“In general, we expect that in the third quarter the economy will reach the dock level, and by the end of the year we will enter the trajectory of sustainable growth at a rate of at least 3%,” the minister stressed.

According to him, already in March 2021, the dynamics of the country's GDP entered the positive zone.

As Reshetnikov specified, this was primarily due to mechanical engineering, chemistry, woodworking, light and food industries.

The Ministry of Economic Development also positively assesses the situation in the transport sector and construction.

At the same time, according to the department's assessment, there is a revival of consumer demand in the country, and the volume of paid services and catering turnover already exceed last year's levels.

Recall that in 2020, against the backdrop of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, the volume of Russia's GDP decreased by 3%.

This is evidenced by the data of Rosstat.

At the same time, the rate of decline of the entire world economy turned out to be deeper and, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), amounted to 3.3%.

“Our economy has passed the crisis better than other economies on average and continues to recover.

At the same time, the decline in economic activity in our country for the first time in many crises turned out to be significantly less than the decline in GDP, and we expect that investments will recover to the pre-crisis level this year, ”said Maxim Reshetnikov.

In many respects, support to the economy during the crisis was provided by financial assistance to the population and business from the state.

This opinion was shared with RT by the head of the laboratory for the analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Institute for Applied Economic Research, RANEPA, Alexander Abramov.

According to him, first of all, we are talking about preferential loans to entrepreneurs and direct payments to families with children.

“The government did not make mistakes with excessive stimulation of some specific industries, observed measures of financial stability, avoided a sharp increase in the budget deficit and other factors that could further slow down economic growth or limit it in the future,” the economist explained.

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In addition, the abolition of most quarantine measures in Russia played in favor of the prompt economic recovery, Abramov said.

According to him, during the period of the self-isolation regime, people developed a so-called deferred demand.

As a result, after the restrictions were lifted, the consumption of goods and services in the country increased significantly.

“As the quarantine eased, Russians began to spend more money on their own needs, which has a positive effect on the economy as a whole.

In addition, the growth of domestic tourism has a positive effect on consumer demand against the backdrop of measures of state support for the industry and the temporary suspension of flights with other countries, ”the specialist explained.

In addition, among the key factors of economic recovery, experts interviewed by RT note an increase in world prices for a number of raw materials.

This state of affairs should ensure the growth of revenue for Russian exporters and improve the replenishment of the country's budget, economists are sure.

“The favorable price situation in the rapidly recovering commodity markets is helping to raise the gross indicators of the Russian economy.

First of all, we are talking about the rise in prices for raw materials in metallurgy, the chemical industry and the oil industry, "said Pyotr Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade, in a conversation with RT.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, in 2021, the export of goods from Russia will grow by almost 24%.

Thus, the total amount of supplies of goods abroad could be about $ 412 billion, compared with $ 322 billion in 2020.

Writes about this TASS with reference to the forecast of the department.

Profitable investment

In the future, support for investment activity will help to maintain GDP growth rates above 3%, Alexander Abramov believes.

So, on the eve of April 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the provision of loans to the regions at a reduced rate to invest in infrastructure projects.

“The so-called infrastructure budget loans at a rate of no more than 3% per annum and a maturity of 15 years.

Until the end of 2023, we plan to allocate such infrastructure loans for a total amount of at least 500 billion rubles, ”the president said during his annual address to the Federal Assembly.

The initiative of the head of state will reduce the debt burden on the regions and at the same time will contribute to the development of a number of industries and sectors of the economy.

This point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by Pavel Sigal, the first vice-president of the all-Russian public organization for small and medium-sized businesses "Support of Russia".

“We will see, for example, the development of construction and a number of related production areas - building materials, finishing materials, road infrastructure, logistics.

This, in turn, will ensure the growth of employment, reduce the unemployment rate and lead to an increase in the income of citizens, ”Sigal emphasized.

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According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2021 real incomes of the population will grow by 3%, and the unemployment rate will drop to 5.2%.

According to Alexander Abramov, such indicators can partly be achieved due to measures taken by the authorities to support the population.

First of all, we are talking about additional social payments to citizens.

“In terms of income growth of the working population, there is also a positive trend in connection with the growth of real wages.

If other waves of the pandemic can be avoided, then an increase in household income in 2021 will accompany economic growth, ”Abramov added.

Price slowdown

According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, inflation in Russia at the end of 2021 will be 4.3%.

It is noteworthy that earlier, the department predicted the annual growth rate of consumer prices around 3.7%.

Recall that inflation in the country began to accelerate in the second half of 2020, and in March 2021 it reached 5.8%.

The value became the highest since November 2016.

Meanwhile, at the moment the rate of price growth in the country has already begun to slow down and dropped to 5.5%.

Deputy Minister of Economic Development Polina Kryuchkova announced this on Thursday.

“The systemic measures taken by the Russian government to reduce the impact of rising world prices on the domestic market are complex and have already reduced price volatility for a number of basic food products.

In general, if not for the measures taken, we could see inflation at a peak of 6% in March, ”Kryuchkova stressed.

According to Alexander Abramov, the increase in inflation in Russia observed in recent months was largely due to the general increase in prices for goods and services in the world. According to the expert, further dynamics of the indicator will depend on how quickly other countries restore the production of cheap goods. At the same time, according to the economist, inflation in Russia in 2021 will remain in the range of 4-5%.