Why is the GDP growth rate lower than the national average?

How to break through?

　　On the morning of April 19, at the press conference on the economic situation of Sichuan in the first quarter of 2021, the economic data of the first quarter was released. Sichuan handed in a report card of 1,185.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8% and an average increase of 6% in two years.

The year-on-year growth rate was 2.5 percentage points lower than the national average, and the two-year average growth rate was 1 percentage point higher than the national average.

　　In response to this report card, Xiong Jianzhong, a first-level inspector of the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, analyzed and analyzed the development prospects and breakthrough points.

Xiong Jianzhong mentioned that, as a leading indicator of economic development, industrial power consumption increased by 27.9%, and rail freight increased by 13%. "Including bank loans and industrial manufacturing purchasing managers' index, it has been in the economic zone for seven consecutive months. I believe that after hard work, Sichuan 2nd The quarterly economic growth is expected to catch up with the national average, and we are confident that the annual economic growth will be higher than the national average."

　　The Provincial Statistics Bureau stated that the recovery process of Sichuan's economy is gradually accelerating, and the better performance of key data such as industrial profits has laid a good start for the development of Sichuan's economy this year.

　　Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News Reporter Ye Yan and Wang Peizhe

　　animal

　　The base effect, the level of outward orientation, Sichuan’s economic performance and the national gap are obvious

　　Sichuan’s GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 2.5 percentage points lower than the national average year-on-year, causing concern, but the two-year average growth rate was still 1 percentage point higher than the national average.

Xiong Jianzhong believes that, from an overall point of view, the economic development and operation of Sichuan is far from that of the whole country, but the prospects are promising.

　　According to Xiong Jianzhong, in the first quarter of Sichuan’s economic operation, most of the main economic indicators were lower than the national average. GDP and the added value of the secondary industry were far behind the national average. In terms of total retail sales of consumer goods, Sichuan achieved a recovery growth of 29.9%. , But still 4 percentage points lower than the national average.

　　In Xiong Jianzhong's view, there are many reasons for the formation of these gaps, the first is the base effect.

“The national economy fell by 6.8% in the first quarter of last year, and the Sichuan economy fell by 3% in the first quarter. In the first quarter of last year, Sichuan took the lead in promoting the resumption of work and production in the country. Sichuan’s GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 was 3.8 percentage points lower than the national decline. Sichuan’s economic growth rate is 3.8 percentage points higher than the national average, and the decline in major economic indicators is less than the national average. From the perspective of the base effect, it is mainly affected by the year-on-year effect of the current statistical system. In the first quarter of this year, the base of national economic growth It is different from the base of Sichuan's economic growth, which naturally leads to a gap in year-on-year calculations."

　　The reporter learned that Sichuan’s economic outward degree is lower than the national level. At this stage, Sichuan’s economic outward degree is around 16%, while the national average has exceeded 30%.

Xiong Jianzhong explained that due to the worldwide impact of the epidemic, a large number of foreign production orders have returned, and China's economic recovery has accelerated quarter by quarter.

"From a national perspective, a large number of backflow orders have significantly contributed to the recovery of production and manufacturing in the eastern region. However, Sichuan’s external demand structure and production structure are not completely symmetrical. The expansion of external demand does not play a significant role in stimulating Sichuan’s industry. And the national gap."

　　Have confidence

　　A number of indicators return to normal growth. The annual growth rate is expected to be higher than the national average

　　In fact, many economic indicators in Sichuan are accelerating their return to normalized growth, and some indicators have recovered or even surpassed the normalized growth rate.

"In the first quarter, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery increased by 12.8%, and the primary industry increased by 10.3%. On average in the two years, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery increased by 5.5%, the primary industry increased by 4.3%, and the average growth rate of farmers’ income in the two years was 10.7 %, both higher than the growth rate of the same period in 2019. It can be seen that the two-year average growth rate of the added value of the primary industry has been higher than the normal growth rate," Xiong Jianzhong said. Other major indicators, the two-year average growth rate and the normalized growth rate The gap between them is also narrowing. "From the perspective of economic aggregates, Sichuan’s economy grew by an average of 6% in two years in the first quarter, and Sichuan’s economy grew by an average of 7% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The difference in growth rate is only 1 percentage point."

　　In addition, the increase in stability factors has also provided a good foundation for the steady growth of Sichuan's economy.

The accelerated recovery of the cultural tourism industry is conducive to the further release of consumer demand, and the growth of the service industry will also continue a rapid recovery trend.

At the same time, Xiong Jianzhong mentioned that, as a leading indicator of economic development, industrial electricity consumption increased by 27.9%, and rail freight increased by 13%. "Including bank loans and industrial manufacturing purchasing manager index, it has been in the business range for seven consecutive months. I believe that after hard work, Sichuan’s economic growth in the second quarter is expected to catch up with the national average, and we are confident that the annual economic growth will be higher than the national average."

　　possible

　　The increasingly obvious role of consumption pulling will become an important breakthrough in economic development

　　Under the new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles, the role of consumption in stimulating economic growth has become increasingly obvious, and consumption growth has attracted much attention.

In the consumption data for the first quarter of 2021, the recovery speed of wholesale, retail, accommodation and catering is still far from that of previous years. In particular, the accommodation and catering industry still has a negative growth in value added compared to the first quarter of 2019.

　　Xiong Jianzhong believes that although the recovery growth rate of the consumer market is lower than the national average, overall it is still showing a rapid recovery trend.

"The rebound trend includes several aspects. First, the retail sales of commodities recovered rapidly. The 16 categories of commodities above the designated size achieved full recovery growth, and 15 categories achieved double-digit growth. Among them, decoration materials increased by 55% and automobiles increased by 52.6. %. Second, the recovery of catering consumption accelerated, with an increase of 82.6% in the first quarter, and the sales income of catering companies above designated size increased by more than double. Third, the growth of online consumption was strong, and the retail sales of goods realized by enterprises above designated size through the Internet increased by 28.8%. Catering revenue realized by the Internet increased by 184.2%."

　　Xiong Jianzhong emphasized that, as a populous province, consumption growth is the result of policy adjustment, base effect and cultural tourism market recovery. It will also become an important breakthrough for Sichuan's economic growth this year.

"In the policy effect, while adhering to the strategy of expanding domestic demand, various localities have introduced a large number of policies and measures to promote consumption, including measures such as night economy and exhibition economy, which have stimulated the vitality of the consumer market. Since this year, Sichuan has also held a series of consumption promotion activities. Large-scale events, from shopping festivals to car shopping festivals, etc. From the perspective of the base effect, consumption in the same period last year showed a negative growth and a rapid growth year-on-year. The full opening of cultural and entertainment venues laid the foundation for consumption during the Spring Festival Golden Week, despite the The growth rate has not yet recovered to the level of the first quarter of 2019, but the recovery growth rate ranks first in the country."