The International Monetary Fund has improved its forecast for the Russian economy for 2021.
According to the organization, the country's GDP will increase by 3.8%.
In 2022, experts expect a similar growth in the indicator.
Such data are contained in the IMF World Economic Outlook report, published on Tuesday, April 6.
Earlier, the IMF believed that Russian GDP would grow by 3% in 2021 and by 3.9% in 2022.
According to the experts of the fund, by the end of 2020, the Russian economy contracted by 3.1%.
At the same time, experts of the organization had previously predicted a deeper decline - around 3.6%.
The improvement in the forecast is largely due to the revival of consumer demand against the backdrop of mass vaccination of the population.
This point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by a senior analyst at Forex Optimum, Alexander Rozman.
According to him, the economy was largely supported by the relaxation of quarantine restrictions, which caused an increase in business activity.
“Against this background, at the end of 2020, the actual decline in the Russian economy turned out to be less than predicted and amounted to 3%.
Moreover, starting this year we see a steady increase in employment: in February 2021, the unemployment rate fell from 5.8% to 5.7%.
At the same time, the March data on business activity in the service sector also showed the maximum growth over the past seven months, "- said Rozman.
RIA News
© Konstantin Mikhalchevsky
Note that the authorities have already allocated 4.6 trillion rubles to combat the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as to help citizens and industry, Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier.
Also, over the next three years, the country's government plans to spend about 39 trillion rubles on the implementation of a single plan to achieve national goals and develop the economy.
In 2021, the situation in the Russian economy will, to a certain extent, depend on the acceleration of investment activity.
This was told to RT by Alexander Abramov, head of the laboratory for the analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Institute for Applied Economic Research, RANEPA.
According to the expert, this year the volume of GDP will grow due to the joint financial investments of the state and private business in large projects.
“During the pandemic, these areas of activity have receded into the background compared to the tasks of combating the spread of the virus, but after, as we see, this work is being restored.
At the same time, it continues to play in favor of economic growth and acceleration of consumer activity, since Russians are moving away from the savings system and start spending more on goods and services, ”the expert added.
Also, additional support to the Russian economy can be provided by a noticeable rise in oil prices, believes the chief analyst of TeleTrade, Pyotr Pushkarev.
According to the IMF forecast, in 2021 the cost of energy resources in the world may increase by almost 42% compared to 2020 and amount to $ 58.5 per barrel.
“The cost of oil on world markets has grown significantly compared to last year's indicators.
Metals, which are also one of the country's main exports, are now in the green zone.
For example, dollar-denominated iron ore futures are trading a third higher than in November 2020.
Similar contracts for copper cost 40% more than they were before the pandemic, ”the expert explained to RT.
Growth estimates
In its report, the IMF also improved its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 from 5.5% to 6%, while in 2022 this indicator will slow to 4.4%.
At the same time, analysts at the organization revised their assessment of the global economic downturn in 2020.
As calculated by the IMF, the volume of world GDP fell by 3.3%, although in January the fund's experts predicted a fall of 3.5%.
"With an unprecedented policy response, the COVID-19 recession is likely to cause less serious long-term damage than the 2008 global financial crisis," the fund said in a report.
According to the IMF, in 2021 the GDP of developed countries will grow by 5.1%, and the economies of developing countries - by 6.7%.
At the same time, the highest growth rates can be recorded in India (12.5%) and China (8.4%).
In the US, the value will be 6.4%, and in the eurozone countries - 4.4%, the organization predicts.
“Against the background of vaccination, trade links are gradually being restored, frozen in a pandemic.
In general, the prospects for world trade will also improve as the sanctions confrontation between the United States and China subsides, as well as due to the recovery of global energy consumption.
Together, these factors should increase the turnover, ”said Alexander Abramov.
According to Alexander Rozman, in the near future one of the main risks for the world economy will remain the likelihood of the start of the third wave of the pandemic.
A repeated lockladoon in most countries of the world could slow down the recovery of global GDP, he said.
In addition, acceleration of inflation may have a negative effect on the world economy, Alexander Abramov does not rule out.
Recall that in 2020, in order to combat the consequences of the pandemic, the central banks of a number of states sharply reduced interest rates, and also began to inject funds into the financial systems of their countries.
“In March, the United States adopted a set of stimulating measures in the amount of $ 1.9 billion, and a new aid package for more than $ 2 trillion is also envisaged. Many American economists consider such stimulus packages to be excessive and predict an increase in inflation against this background. In turn, the rapid rise in prices will affect the slowdown in economic growth in the United States and the world as a whole, ”concluded Abramov.