Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, April 2nd, on the 2nd, the China Foreign Exchange Trade Center showed that the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.5649, a 65 basis point depreciation, and the central parity of the previous trading day was reported at 6.5584.
This week, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar showed a pattern of "four drops and one rise", with a cumulative depreciation of 273 points.
Screenshot of the official website of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center
At the same time, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rose slightly in the onshore and offshore markets.
As of press time, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is reported at 6.5626; the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, which more reflects the expectations of international investors, is reported at 6.5722.
Guan Tao, global chief economist of Bank of China Securities, believes that under the condition that the equilibrium exchange rate determined by fundamentals has not undergone major changes, the factors of appreciation and devaluation will inevitably fluctuate from one to the other, causing the exchange rate to rise if it rises too much, or rise if it falls too much. There are two-way fluctuations of ups and downs.
Especially when the exchange rate tends to be in equilibrium, under the influence of the interweaving factors of long and short, it is prone to large ups and downs, and the trend of opening and closing.
Regarding the follow-up RMB exchange rate, CITIC Securities stated that the U.S. dollar has strong support under the influence of fundamental expectations, monetary policy signals and weighted currencies. At the same time, it is expected that the upward trend of U.S. bond interest rates will be a trend throughout the year. The second quarter of the RMB exchange rate is expected. Will pull back to above 6.6.
Soochow Securities analyzed that the RMB exchange rate was weak in the first half of the year, with a high probability of returning to above 6.60.
However, in the second half of the year, as non-US economies represented by Europe begin to accelerate their recovery, the US dollar index will gradually weaken, which may appear in the third quarter; but in the fourth quarter, as the Fed reduces asset purchases and other tightening of monetary policy expectations Heating up, the US dollar index may strengthen again.
From this, we can roughly judge the rhythm of the RMB exchange rate this year: the first half of the year was weak, the third quarter became stronger, and the end of the year faced certain depreciation pressure again.
Regarding the possible impact of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, CITIC Securities mentioned that the RMB has a certain degree of risk asset attributes, and it should prevent the RMB exchange rate depreciation from bringing risks of domestic risk asset adjustments. If the risk assets are adjusted, it may be to a certain extent. Conducive to the domestic bond market.
Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, emphasized on April 1 that the external meaning of currency stability is to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. To this end, it is necessary to enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen macro-prudential management of cross-border capital, and guide social expectations. , Grasp the balance between internal and external equilibrium.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)