Closure of schools for two to three weeks, travel restrictions extended to the entire territory: the new measures announced Wednesday by Emmanuel Macron to fight against Covid-19 mark the failure of those so far in place in the 19 departments confined.

The effect of traffic restrictions has remained too limited on car traffic and the use of public transport.

DECRYPTION

"We therefore need a new framework" and "additional efforts": these are the words used by Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday evening to justify the new restrictive measures aimed at stemming the third wave of Covid-19.

Even in confined areas, the progression of the virus is particularly sharp in this early spring.

Proof that the rules imposed so far, including teleworking four days a week minimum when possible, are not having the desired effect.

And this can be seen in the movements of the French.

Whether by car or public transport, we move a lot more than during the second confinement, itself much less strict than the first.

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Heavy traffic and near normal fuel consumption

These data are closely monitored by the Élysée and undoubtedly played a role in Emmanuel Macron's decision.

Several figures alerted the President of the Republic.

First, those of the use of the national road network.

In the week of March 22 to 28, it was 99.8% nationwide compared to the usual level.

Almost normal traffic that calls out, especially since it is up 7% compared to the previous week.

In Île-de-France, road traffic reaches 75%, a sign that confinement is working, but not enough. 

Another data studied closely: fuel consumption, a corollary indicator of French car trips.

Between March 15 and 21, she was at her usual level, only 8% below the norm.

But in Île-de-France, a region that was confined this same week, fuel consumption was up 5%.

In fact, Wednesday at 6 p.m., there were 175 kilometers of traffic jams on the roads of the Paris region, according to the traffic monitoring site Sytadin.

An accumulation defined as "low" compared to the average but nevertheless well above the levels observed during the November containment. 

Slackening in Île-de-France…

To study the movements of the French, the digital giants, which collect and aggregate masses of anonymized data, are also proving useful.

So goes Google and its Maps application.

The mobility trend observed since the beginning of March in Île-de-France towards workplaces, by car or by public transport, is 35% lower than a normal period.

Evidence of a relaxation, the drop was 50% in February.

Same observation on the side of Apple, whose data allow a comparison between the second confinement and the current situation in the greater Paris region.

In November, route requests made through the Maps app (which may or may not be followed by actual travel) had fallen 65% for both car and public transport journeys.

Since March 20, we have seen a decrease of around 45% for journeys by car and 20 to 25% for journeys by public transport.

Figures identical to those of the week preceding the reconfinement, a sign that the measures announced by Jean Castex have not borne fruit.

... and in other large confined cities

Île-de-France is not the only area that can be singled out, since other cities reconfigured on March 20 are in the same situation.

In recent days, in Lille, requests for itineraries in Apple Plans for travel by car were 15% lower than a normal day (against -35% during the second confinement).

Same observation in Nice (-15% against -30%) and Rouen (-10% against -30%).

In the 19 departments that were confined before Emmanuel Macron's speech, with more shops open than during the second confinement and more flexible movement restrictions, the French therefore seem less inclined to stay at home on their own.

However, more travel obviously means more risk of exposure to Covid-19, especially in public transport. In Île-de-France, train, bus and metro attendance fell from 53% to 45% after the announcement of confinement on March 20. A level still much higher than that observed in November (35%). "We have not succeeded in putting people back into telework," concluded the president of the region Valérie Pécresse, in the columns of 

Paris Match

. Despite the alerts on the health situation in half of France, there is also still too much interregional travel: the SNCF only observed a drop in the number of passengers on its trains by around 65% in March.