With the Bank of Japan's Tankan forecast released on April 1, there are many views that the economic judgment of the manufacturing industry of large companies will improve to the level before the spread of the new coronavirus.
On the other hand, it has been pointed out that the non-manufacturing industries such as food and drink and lodging are expected to continue to be at a severe level, and the pace of improvement will differ depending on the industry.
The Bank of Japan's Tankan = Corporate Short-term Economic Observation Survey is a survey that asks about 10,000 domestic companies about the current state of the economy every three months, and is a private think tank before the latest results are announced on the 1st of next month. 15 companies have compiled their forecasts.
According to this, the economic judgment index of the large manufacturing industry is expected to improve from the minus 10 points of the previous survey (December last year) against the background of increasing exports to China.
If it improves, the median forecast of each company will be 0 points for the third consecutive quarter, which is the same level as the survey conducted in December before the spread of the new coronavirus.
In contrast, the economic judgment index for large non-manufacturing companies continues to be negative for all 15 companies, with a median of minus 5 points, flat from the previous time.
It has been pointed out that there is a difference in the pace of improvement between the manufacturing industry and the non-manufacturing industry, partly due to the influence of the state of emergency issued in the metropolitan area of 1 metropolitan area and 3 prefectures.
In this Tankan survey conducted toward the end of the fiscal year, it is also noteworthy that there is no change in the index that indicates whether a company's cash flow is easy.