For several weeks, the general public has been discovering the term "semiconductors", these tiny electronic components essential, in particular, to modern cars.

All over the world, including in France, factories are reducing their production for lack of sufficient stock.

And the worst is yet to come.

DECRYPTION

 "It's Armaggedon atmosphere", summarizes, incredulous, this specialist in semiconductors.

The shortage of these electronic components essential to the operation of modern cars is reaching an unprecedented level.

Already, the crisis promised to be lasting, between a recovery in demand in China faster and stronger than expected and an acceleration in sales of tech products linked to the health crisis, but now the elements are involved.

Serial disasters

Imagine, in a few weeks, an unprecedented succession: first an earthquake in Japan which shut down the factory of the 1st Japanese manufacturer, Renesas Electronics, resulting in three days without producing.

Painless in normal times, problematic in the midst of a shortage.

Second blow: a cold wave fell on the United States and more precisely in the region of Austin, Texas.

Where there are several semiconductor manufacturing plants, that of NXP, one of the market leaders, and that of Samsung, another heavyweight.

There too, a shutdown and above all, it will take at least a month to restart the machine. 

Latest disaster to date: Friday March 19, the Renesas Electronics plant in northeastern Japan is once again shut down, this time due to a fire.

A machine caught fire due to an electrical fault.

Result: here too, it will take at least a month to restart production.

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Builders without resources

The first direct consequence of this succession of events which occurred at the worst time: Japanese manufacturers Toyota, Honda and Nissan are considering revising their production plan downwards for 2021. In the first quarter, this shortage could lead to a reduction in 10 to 20% of the planned production.

Volvo and Ford, among others, have expressed concerns and are already anticipating losses.

The Swedish manufacturer even plans four weeks of shutdown!

On the French side, Renault estimated that the impact could be 100,000 vehicles less over the year.

It will be even more from the first semester, slips an internal source, which specifies that it will be necessary to try to catch up to the maximum in the second semester.

Except that the forecasts are more and more pessimistic.

"The worst is in front of us", according to Jérémie Bouchaud, director of studies at IHS Markit in London, in charge of the semiconductor file.

"And that postpones the release for at least a month and I think even rather a whole quarter. This means that we are not going to recover the volumes that were not done before the beginning of next year".

French factories in slow motion

In France, the impact is already being felt.

Initially, it was mostly overtime sessions on Saturday mornings that were eliminated, whether on the Stellantis (PSA), Renault or Toyota sites in Onnaing.

Now the days without working are multiplying.

The PSA factories in Sochaux and Rennes have notably experienced closures.

That of Flins, for the Renault group, will experience 4 weeks of shutdown spread over the months of March and April.

Management is done on a weekly basis, we explain internally.

It is sometimes even day to day, specifies Olivier Lefebvre, central union representative FO-Stellantis.

"Employees, depending on the supply of electronic components, may or may not come to work. And so they call a toll-free number that lets them know if the work program is assured."

The consequences are very different from one site to another.

Manufacturers make choices, abandon certain models in favor of those who are most in demand or those they have just launched.

But even the most far-sighted are starting to stick their tongues out.

Toyota benefited from a larger stock than its competitors, in particular thanks to a partnership with Renesas Electronics, of which the world number 1 Japanese manufacturer is a shareholder.

Except that Friday's fire was a game-changer.

"It was their secret weapon", specifies Jérémie Bouchaud of IHS Markit.

"It was supposed to make it possible to ramp up and even gain market share".

But the secret weapon went up in smoke.