China's LPR stays flat for 11 consecutive months and continues to rise
China News Service, Beijing, March 22 (Reporter Pang Wuji) China's loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) has been "holding on hold" for 11 consecutive months, but the mortgage interest rate has continued to rise, deviating from it.
On the 22nd, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce a 1-year LPR of 3.85% and an LPR of more than 5 years of 4.65%.
Since then, LPR has not been adjusted for 11 consecutive months.
At the same time, mortgage interest rates are showing signs of rising.
In March, the Shell Research Institute’s monitoring of the 60 cities’ mainstream first home mortgage interest rate was 5.34%, and the second set of interest rates were 5.62%, an increase of 2 and 3 basis points respectively from the previous month; It was extended by 3 days in February.
According to the monitoring data of Rong360 Big Data Research Institute on the mortgage interest rates of 674 bank branches in 41 key cities across the country, March 2021 (data monitoring period is from February 20, 2021 to March 18, 2021), China The average interest rate of the first home loan was 5.28%, an increase of 2 basis points from the previous month; the average interest rate of the second home loan was 5.57%, an increase of 1 basis point from the previous month.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, believes that there is a divergence between current mortgage interest rates and LPR.
LPR remained unchanged, and mortgage interest rates rose. This is the result of banks implementing real estate financial control policies.
The real estate loan concentration management system has been implemented. In March, first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities have stricter investigations on illegal operating loans, and the credit environment has become tighter.
Under this constraint, hotspot city banks prudently extended mortgages for house purchases, raised the level of mortgage interest rates, and strictly reviewed the qualifications and income flow of house buyers, resulting in a prolonged lending cycle.
Xu Xiaole believes that real estate financial regulation is equivalent to a targeted interest rate hike in the real estate market, and there is a possibility of further increase in the level of mortgage interest rates.
On the one hand, with the easing of the global epidemic, the optimistic expectations of economic recovery in various countries have increased, the level of risk-free interest rates has shown an upward trend, and the pricing interest rates of various financial assets are under upward pressure.
On the other hand, the current property market in some cities is very hot. Under the pressure of regulation, banks will further increase loan interest rates, driving the overall mortgage interest rate to continue to grow.
Xu Xiaole pointed out that the current real estate market has entered the end of this round of upward cycle, and the downward turning point of the market may come in the second quarter.
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