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Luck helps the brave, says a Latin proverb.

Sometimes it also helps the unsuspecting.

The federal government - this is now shown by the official figures on CO2 emissions in 2020 - has just achieved the climate protection targets it has set itself.

With 739 million tons of CO2, the country emitted around 41 percent fewer greenhouse gases last year than in 1990. Without the corona effect, the balance would have remained just below the targeted 40 percent mark.

"With the climate footprint 2020, Germany is making progress in climate protection for the third year in a row," commented Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD), who presented the figures in Berlin together with the President of the Federal Environment Agency (UBA), Dirk Messner.

While around a third of the CO2 reduction in the past year can be attributed to corona effects, "structural" successes of climate protection policy can also be seen at the same time.

Power plant operators, of all people, are exceeding their target

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Messner referred in particular to the successes of the European emissions trading system in the energy sector.

The power plant operators, who are apparently often unjustly scolded, have thus far exceeded their climate protection target.

With around 38 million tons of CO2, they had emitted 14.5 percent less last year than in 2019. The legally “permitted” amount of 280 million tons of carbon dioxide was well below the amount of 221 million tons last year.

The German CO2 values ​​are surprisingly good because of the economic slump caused by Corona, but also thanks to the high wind power harvest in the spring of last year.

At the same time, this year, for the first time, the climate balance also has direct political consequences.

Because the new Climate Protection Act obliges the relevant ministries to take immediate action if the relevant economic sector deviates from the targets set in the law.

While politicians previously unloaded the burden of climate protection solely on the Federal Environment Ministry, the new law now makes "all ministers climate protection ministers," said Schulze.

UBA President Messner believes that the department's new duty to make annual readjustments is a “game changer”.

The Climate Protection Act assigns the economic sectors energy, industry, traffic, buildings, agriculture and waste management their own “permissible annual emissions”.

Horst Seehofer must present immediate measures

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After the data has been disclosed, an independent “climate council” will check the target deviations practically like a notary by April 15th.

Thereafter, the respective responsible ministries have three months to present a package of measures with which the target deviation is corrected.

This package of measures will be evaluated again by the “Climate Council”.

The panel of experts consists of three economists and two physicists, including Brigitte Knopf, Secretary General of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) and Marc Oliver Bettzüge, Director of the Energy Economics Institute (EWI) in Cologne.

Since all economic sectors have achieved their CO2 targets with the exception of the building sector, the new obligation to take immediate action initially only applies to Federal Building Minister Horst Seehofer (CSU) and Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier (CDU).

It is true that the consumption of heating energy also decreased in the past year.

But the emission reduction of around three million tonnes is not enough: the requirements of the Climate Protection Act allowed a maximum of 118 million tonnes of CO2 in this sector in 2020, a value that was exceeded by two million tonnes.

A ban on oil heating is conceivable

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It is unclear what immediate measures Seehofer will propose in the summer to compensate for this missed target.

In the case of a higher path deviation, far-reaching interventions would theoretically be conceivable, such as compulsory solar systems on house roofs or a rigorous ban on oil heating.

However, given the relatively low number of missed targets, milder measures are likely to be expected.

This is indicated by initial statements by Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier (CDU).

He points out that the recently introduced financial aid for heating replacement still needed time to be reflected in the CO2 values.

"The additional measures introduced in the building sector are effective, but will only show up in the emission figures with a certain delay," explained Altmaier: "The recently launched or increased funding programs in the building sector are being used heavily and the number of renovations is increasing."

However, given the clear mandate of the Climate Protection Act, it is unlikely that Federal Building Minister Seehofer will refrain from submitting a new package of measures in the summer with the same reasoning.

Scheuer benefited most from the corona effect

On the occasion of the current CO2 balance, mainly for Federal Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer (CSU), luckily it was said: The transport sector, which has always been the biggest problem child in climate protection, significantly reduced its CO2 emissions for the first time last year, by 11.4 percent .

With the saving of 19 million tonnes of CO2, traffic has achieved the “sector target” specified in the Climate Protection Act.

Scheuer is not one of those who the new climate protection law demands a fast-acting package of measures.

Postponed is not canceled: Scheuer's transport sector benefited more than the other areas from the corona effects.

The lockdown measures reduced the gasoline consumption of cars and trucks by more than ten percent, and kerosene consumption in aviation by as much as 54 percent.

"Not enough to compensate for the nuclear phase-out in 2022"

If there are catch-up effects in the next year, the climate balance sheet of Scheuers - or that of his successor - quickly slips back into the red.

After all, the amount of CO2 that can be saved according to the Climate Act will from now on also increase year after year.

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"For 2021, 2022 and 2023 it is to be feared that Germany's greenhouse gas emissions will rise again," warns Patrick Graichen, director of the Agora Energiewende think tank: "The reasons are corona catch-up effects and the lack of expansion of wind and solar systems." Expansion of renewable energies "is not enough to compensate for the nuclear phase-out in 2022."

And the challenges continue to increase, not only for Scheuer and Seehofer, but for all federal ministers who have now become “climate protection ministers” by law.

The European Union is currently negotiating stricter, Union-wide CO2 targets for 2030 in the so-called trialogue process. As a result, the German CO2 target for the end of this decade should also be raised to 65 percent.

This has consequences for the goals in each individual economic sector. "The Federal Government must revise the Climate Protection Act," concludes Graichen: "Because the higher 2030 climate protection targets decided at EU level have not yet been taken into account."

"Finally treat a climate emergency like an emergency"

The Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg made her first official appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2019.

This year, due to the corona, she addressed the participants in a video address.

Source: WORLD