China News Service, March 15 talked about the topic of major economic indicators from January to February. Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the General Statistics Department of the National Economy, pointed out that the factors supporting the stable recovery of the economy continue to emerge.

Since the second quarter of last year, the results of coordinated promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development have continued to show, and the economy has continued to recover steadily.

Data map: A textile factory worker works in the production workshop.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

　　On the 15th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy from January to February 2021.

At the meeting, a reporter asked, what was the reason for the sharp rebound in major economic indicators from January to February?

How to evaluate the start performance of China's economy?

In this regard, Liu Aihua made the above statement.

　　Liu Aihua pointed out that, first of all, the factors supporting the stable recovery of the economy continue to emerge.

Since the second quarter of last year, the results of coordinated promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development have continued to show, and the economy has continued to recover steadily.

Some local clusters and sporadic epidemics have appeared in some areas since the beginning of this year, but the epidemic prevention and control measures are strong, the macro policies have been implemented effectively, the results of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development have been consolidated and expanded, and the positive factors supporting economic stability and recovery have accumulated. .

　　Liu Aihua said that external demand has improved.

Since the beginning of this year, the world economy has recovered slowly, and the manufacturing boom of major economies has rebounded, which has driven the rapid growth of my country’s exports.

From January to February, my country's exports to ASEAN increased by more than 40% year-on-year, and exports to the United States increased by more than 70%.

　　Liu Aihua said that the local Chinese New Year will boost industrial production.

This year’s Spring Festival, many places have advocated local Chinese New Year, and many places have introduced relevant policies to provide financial compensation to staff who remain on the job. The time for the start of business and project construction has been significantly extended, and the arrival of employees is better than in previous years, supporting industrial production. Wait for indicators to rebound.

The National Bureau of Statistics conducted a quick survey of nearly 5,000 industrial enterprises, and the results showed that the average number of holidays for industrial enterprises during the Spring Festival was 7.5 days, which was significantly less than in normal years.

The survey results also showed that nearly half of the companies surveyed said that more than 90% of their employees chose to celebrate the New Year locally.

Therefore, the in-situ Chinese New Year policy has a very significant effect on extending the start-up time of industrial production.

　　Liu Aihua mentioned that from a statistical point of view, the impact of the decline in the base in the same period last year was relatively large.

At the beginning of last year, affected by the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the year-on-year growth rate of major indicators has dropped significantly. The value-added of industries above designated size fell by 13.5% from January to February last year, the service industry production index fell by 13%, and fixed asset investment fell by 24.5%. , The total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 20.5%. These data can be said to have significantly increased the year-on-year growth rate from January to February this year due to the substantial decline in the original base.

　　"We have calculated the two-year average growth rate to try to eliminate the impact of low base." Liu Aihua said, taking industrial production as an example, the first calculation showed that the two-year average year-on-year growth rate of the added value of industries above designated size was only 8.1%.

However, according to the usual year-on-year growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate of the industrial added value above designated size from January to February was 35.1%. It can be said that this low base has a significant impact on the year-on-year growth rate.

Using the same method, the two-year average growth rate is calculated. The service industry production index increased by 6.8% in the two-year average, fixed asset investment increased by 1.7%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.2%. Judging from these data, the overall economy is recovering. in progress.

　　In response to the initial performance of the Chinese economy, Liu Aihua said that the overall characteristics of the economic operation from January to February this year are shown in four aspects:

　　Production demand continues to recover.

Industrial production has grown rapidly. The value added of industries above designated size in the first two months has increased by 16.9% over the same period in 2019, with an average increase of 8.1% in two years, which is a relatively high level in the same period in recent years.

The service industry has maintained rapid growth. The service industry production index in January-February increased by 14.1% over the same period in 2019, and the two-year average growth rate was 6.8%.

Market sales continued to grow. The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February increased by 6.4% over the same period in 2019, and the two-year average growth rate was 3.2%.

Fixed asset investment has grown steadily. The fixed asset investment in January and February increased by 3.5% over the same period in 2019, and the two-year average growth rate was 1.7%.

Imports and exports have grown relatively fast, and the total volume of imports and exports of goods from January to February increased by 19.3% over the same period in 2019.

　　Employment prices are generally stable.

In February, the surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns nationwide was 5.5%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point from January. This was mainly due to the Spring Festival and local clustering and spread of epidemics; it was down 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year.

The year-on-year decline in consumer prices narrowed. In February, consumer prices fell by 0.2% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

　　Innovation momentum has steadily increased.

It is manifested in several areas. First, the rapid growth of new industries. The added value of high-tech industries increased by an average of 13% in the two-year period from January to February, and the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.2%. These two speeds were significantly higher than the 8.1% of all industries above designated size. Growth rate.

The growth of new business patterns is good. On-site Chinese New Year has driven the rapid expansion of online shopping. From January to February, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 30.6% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth was 16%, accounting for 20.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

New products are also constantly growing. The output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots and other new products has grown at an average rate of more than 30% in two years.

　　Market vitality continued to improve.

From the perspective of production factors, the production factors are becoming more active. The freight volume of the whole society increased by 48.1% year-on-year from January to February, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.5%.

The electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 22.2% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 6.1%.

The overall expectations of enterprises are improving. In February, the manufacturing purchasing manager index was 50.6% and the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.4%, both of which were above the threshold for 12 consecutive months, indicating that the overall enterprise expectations are improving.

　　Liu Aihua made it clear that based on the above situation, the economic operation from January to February this year continued the trend of stable recovery since last year, the economic cycle is becoming more and more smooth, and the market expectation continues to improve.

But at the same time, we must be soberly aware that the current international situation is still complex and severe, and the foundation for domestic economic recovery is not yet solid. Therefore, we must follow the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the deployment of the "Government Work Report" to further consolidate the economic fundamentals and promote the economy. Continuous and stable recovery.