Major economic indicators showed substantial growth in the first two months
What do you think about the start of China's economy in 2021 (authoritative release)
Drawing: Wang Zheping
Core reading
From January to February this year, my country's main economic indicators showed substantial growth year-on-year.
Judging from the average year-on-year growth rate of the two years last year and this year, the economy is generally in the process of recovery, maintaining a sustained and stable recovery since last year.
No matter from the perspective of economic recovery, or from the perspective of factor support and policy support, China's economy will have a foundation and conditions to maintain a sustained recovery in 2021.
The value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 35.1% year-on-year, the service industry production index increased by 31.1% year-on-year, and investment in fixed assets increased by 35.0% year-on-year... On March 15, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the main economic indicators from January to February this year Shows substantial growth.
How to accurately interpret the economic data of the beginning of this year?
At the press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council, Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, gave an interpretation.
The economy as a whole is in the process of recovery, and there are favorable conditions for maintaining the overall stability of employment
Judging from the growth rate of the main indicators released, the year-on-year indicators from January to February this year have indeed shown substantial growth.
In order to get a more objective and accurate picture of the economic operation, the National Bureau of Statistics deliberately compared the data from January to February this year with the same period in 2020 and the same period in 2019, and introduced a new indicator "two-year average growth rate", which is based on 2019. The corresponding period number is the base, and the growth rate is calculated using the geometric average method.
"From a statistical point of view, the impact of the decline in the base in the same period last year was relatively large." The spokesperson said that at the beginning of last year, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the year-on-year growth rate of major indicators dropped significantly.
"Due to the substantial decline in the base number last year, the year-on-year growth rate from January to February this year was significantly increased. We calculated the two-year average growth rate to try to eliminate the impact of the low base number."
The speaker took industrial production as an example. From January to February this year, the year-on-year growth rate of the added value of industries above designated size was 35.1%. Excluding the low base impact calculation, the average year-on-year growth rate of the added value of industries above designated size was only 8.1% last year and this year.
"Using the same method, the two-year average growth rate is calculated, the service industry production index increased by 6.8% in the two years, fixed asset investment increased by 1.7%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.2%. Judging from these data, the economy as a whole is in In the process of recovery."
Among the economic indicators from January to February, employment data is also eye-catching.
From January to February, 1.48 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country.
This year's "Government Work Report" pointed out that more than 11 million new jobs have been created in cities and towns.
From the perspective of the starting situation, are there conditions for achieving the annual employment target?
"To maintain the overall stability of employment, we also have many favorable conditions." The spokesperson said.
The sustained and stable recovery of the economy will drive the expansion of employment demand, which is conducive to the stability of the employment situation.
The continued efforts of the employment stabilization policy and the restorative development of the service industry will alleviate employment pressure.
"In 2021, as the effects of epidemic prevention and control continue to appear, the service industry will show a recovery development. Under this trend, the service industry will better play its role as a reservoir of employment." The spokesperson said.
The consumption potential has not yet been fully released, and the steady recovery of the consumer market is expected to continue
Although the economic operation from January to February this year continued the stable recovery trend since last year, the economic cycle has become increasingly smooth, and market expectations have continued to improve.
However, the current international situation is still complicated and severe, and the foundation for domestic economic recovery is not yet solid.
Affected by the low base in the same period, from January to February this year, the consumer market grew at a higher rate year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 33.8% year-on-year. After deducting price factors, the actual growth rate was 34.3%.
Compared with January-February 2019, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%, and the two-year average growth rate was 3.2%, which is still in the process of recovering growth.
"At the beginning of this year, a cluster of epidemics occurred in some areas, and the short-term impact in some consumer areas was obvious." Zhang Min, a statistician from the Department of Trade and Foreign Economic Affairs, National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed.
Liu Aihua also believes that catering consumption has not yet returned to the level before the epidemic.
"Food consumption is still affected by the clustering and sporadic epidemics in some areas, and the consumption potential has not yet been fully released."
However, judging from the data from the start of this year, there are also many bright spots in the consumer sector.
The consumption growth rate of upgraded products was relatively high, and some overseas consumption returned.
From January to February, the retail sales of cosmetics, gold, silver, jewellery, and daily necessities of units above designated size all grew by more than 30% year-on-year.
From the two-year average growth rate, the growth rate of retail sales of cosmetics and gold, silver and jewellery products of units above designated size was 9.9% and 8.2%, respectively, and the growth rate of retail sales of daily commodities including watches, bags, etc. was 12.1% .
Among upgraded products, the average growth rate of sports and entertainment products and communication equipment was over 18% in two years, maintaining a relatively high growth rate.
Online retail has maintained rapid growth, and physical stores have shown recovery growth.
From January to February this year, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by an average of 16% in two years, and the retail sales of goods in physical stores above designated size increased by 4.1%.
While online retail has maintained rapid growth, physical stores have gradually recovered their growth in the context of effective prevention and control of the epidemic.
"In the next stage, under the background of accelerating the formation of a strong domestic market and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, as the promotion of consumption policies continue to show effects, the steady recovery of the consumer market is expected to continue." Zhang Min said.
It will take some time for manufacturing investment to recover, but China’s economy has the foundation and conditions to maintain a continuous recovery.
From January to February this year, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by an average of 1.7% year-on-year in two years. Among them, investment in high-tech industries increased by 50.1% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 11.0%; investment in social fields increased by 48.0% year-on-year, The average growth rate was 8.8%, which was a relatively fast growth rate.
However, manufacturing investment has fallen by an average of 3.4% in two years, and the recovery momentum has been relatively slow.
"Manufacturing investment is affected by a variety of factors, including the restoration of corporate investment capabilities and investment confidence. Although the epidemic has been effectively controlled, pressure for epidemic prevention and control still exists, and the external environment is still more complex and severe. Therefore, the recovery of manufacturing investment may not be possible. It will take some time." The spokesperson said.
Wang Wei, director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the contribution of final consumption to economic growth has continued to increase in recent years.
The expansion, release, and upgrading of final consumption demand should be the main direction, and the upgrading and expansion of consumption should be used to drive investment and industrial restructuring, and drive the construction of a more complete domestic demand system, thereby forming a new impetus to support high-quality development.
Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Market and Price Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, also believes that under the new development pattern, the supply side and the demand side are not independent of each other. A supply-demand relationship that leads and drives each other and spirals upward should be formed. To achieve a high level of dynamic balance and form a strong domestic market.
This spiral process contains investment opportunities in the manufacturing industry.
The spokesperson analyzed that from the performance of various indicators, although there are still imbalances between industries and fields, the main indicators are in the process of restorative growth, and the economic operation has maintained a sustained and stable recovery since last year.
"Regardless of the economic recovery situation, or from the perspective of factor support and policy support, it should be said that China's economy will continue to recover in 2021. There is a foundation and conditions."
Our reporter Lu Yanan