On Monday, March 15, the Russian currency is significantly strengthening on the Moscow Exchange.
During the trades, the dollar fell by more than 0.5% and for the first time since December 17, 2020 reached 72.95 rubles.
At the same time, the euro rate fell by 0.7% - to 87.05 rubles.
The last time a similar indicator could be observed back in August 2020.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on March 16 was set at 73.23 rubles per dollar and 87.35 rubles per euro.
The observed strengthening of the ruble is largely due to the growing inflow of money to the Russian stock market.
This point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by Valery Emelyanov, an analyst at Freedom Finance.
According to him, against the background of general optimism on world trading floors, foreign investors are more actively buying securities denominated in rubles and thereby support the national currency rate.
“At trading on Monday, the RTS index, which reflects the dollar value of the Russian stock market, exceeded 1550 points for the first time since February 2020, that is, returned to pre-pandemic levels.
At the same time, the Moscow Exchange's ruble index updated its all-time high and for the first time crossed the 3596 point mark.
This again indicates the positive sentiment of investors, ”Emelyanov emphasized.
In addition, the Russian currency responds positively to the rise in oil prices in the world.
Anna Zaitseva, an analyst at FINAM Group, told RT about this.
In the course of trading on March 15 at the ICE exchange in London, the price of raw materials of the Brent benchmark rose at the moment by 1.2% - to $ 70.02 per barrel.
“In recent days, the price of Brent oil has been stably held near the $ 70 mark per barrel after the OPEC + meeting.
Following the meeting of the countries - exporters of raw materials, it was decided to extend the March quotas for another April.
At the same time, Russia got the opportunity to increase oil production by 130 thousand barrels per day, which is doubly positive for us, ”Zaitseva noted.
Recall that under the OPEC + agreement, oil exporting states specifically limit the production of hydrocarbons.
Thus, the countries are trying to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global energy market.
According to experts, the policy of the alliance members should keep oil prices from new collapses.
As the investment strategist of BCS World of Investments Alexander Bakhtin said in an interview with RT, seasonal factors also play in favor of strengthening the national currency.
According to the expert, from February to April, the ruble is traditionally supported by a surplus in the current account of Russia.
We are talking about a situation when the inflow of foreign currency into the country exceeds its outflow abroad.
Moreover, in the coming days, the attention of foreign exchange market players will be focused on statements from the Central Bank, experts say.
As expected, on Friday, March 19, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank will hold a regular meeting on the key rate.
According to Anna Zaitseva, the top management of the regulator will keep the interest on borrowings at the current level - 4.25% per annum.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia may announce important information for investors regarding further monetary policy, the expert said.
“The Central Bank can provide clearer guidelines for the transition to a neutral monetary policy, which implies the return of the key rate to the range of 5-6% per annum.
It is worth saying that the rate hike will further strengthen the ruble: firstly, through a decrease in inflation in the country, and secondly, through an increase in deposit rates and government securities yields, ”explained Zaitseva.
© Maxim Blinov
According to Alexander Bakhtin, sanctions risks continue to exert some pressure on the ruble.
However, the experts interviewed by RT do not yet expect the introduction of any new serious restrictions on Russia in the near future.
Against this background, the Russian currency will be able to avoid noticeable exchange rate fluctuations by the end of spring, analysts say.
According to Bakhtin, in the absence of geopolitical threats and the preservation of oil prices in the range of $ 65-70 per barrel, in the spring the dollar exchange rate will remain at the level of 72-75 rubles, and the euro exchange rate - around 87-91 rubles.
Anna Zaitseva adheres to a similar assessment.
“If we do without external negative factors, by the end of spring we expect that the rates will be able to gain a foothold in the ranges of 72-74 rubles per dollar and 85-87.5 rubles per euro,” the analyst concluded.