display

It is considered to be the backbone of the German economy, the German middle class.

And this backbone is already under heavy strain.

Numerous indications indicate that medium-sized companies are suffering more from the pandemic and lockdown than large corporations that do business outside of Germany, too.

The real endurance test for Germany's medium-sized companies is just ahead.

Because it is increasingly difficult for companies in this country to find qualified personnel - personnel that are necessary to flourish, expand and also be able to keep up in the digital age.

The fear of a shortage of skilled workers initially seems paradoxical, as unemployment has increased significantly during the Corona crisis.

At 2.9 million, a good 500,000 more people were recently looking for a job than in February 2020, i.e. before the crisis.

Theoretically, more qualified workers should be available on the labor market to fill vacancies.

From the employer's point of view, the situation should be more relaxed.

The corona pandemic is such a heavy burden on the labor market

Corona has changed the job market.

The state is digging deep into its pockets to prevent mass unemployment.

But short-time working is also increasing again.

Some industries are particularly affected.

Source: WELT / David Schafbuch

display

That's not the case.

A study by the consulting company EY comes to a downright shocking result: 70 percent of all medium-sized companies in Germany are currently finding it difficult or very difficult to find well-trained employees for vacancies.

This result has it all.

“Current” means “already now”.

Because in the course of the 2020s, the shortage of skilled workers will inevitably worsen for demographic reasons - and SMEs are particularly affected.

For smaller companies in particular, this will threaten their very existence.

In the new decade, the last baby boomers from the post-war period will retire.

The following years are significantly smaller in number.

The difference between retiring and subsequent cohorts will be around half a million people a year by 2035.

But the number does not cover the whole problem: What is particularly lacking are technicians, engineers and graduates with a natural science background.

"A third of all medium-sized companies cannot fill positions in production due to a lack of suitable applicants," says the EY medium-sized business barometer, which WELT was presented in advance.

In some industries the alarm bells are already ringing.

Four out of five medium-sized companies (81 percent) in the chemical-pharmaceutical industry and in electrical engineering report difficulties in filling vacancies.

Source: WORLD infographic

display

The problems of medium-sized businesses are also confirmed by other studies: "Compared to very large and, as a rule, supraregional well-known companies, small companies have greater problems with recruiting," says Alexander Kubis from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Nuremberg.

According to the IAB, in 2019, 45 percent of all vacancies with new employees in small and medium-sized companies - also abbreviated as SMEs - were associated with difficulties.

At the time, that was seven percentage points more than in larger companies with more than 250 employees.

EY's data now suggest that to date the problems have worsened rather than eased.

At the beginning of the year, the consulting company surveyed 1150 medium-sized companies throughout Germany for the SME Barometer.

It did come out that the willingness to recruit new employees fell to its lowest level since 2010 in the Corona recession.

At the same time, however, the need to find qualified staff for the vacancies has increased.

"The shortage of skilled workers is the biggest problem for the development of German medium-sized companies," says EY partner and medium-sized company expert Michael Marbler frankly.

Source: WORLD infographic

In the survey, the companies considered the shortage of skilled workers - despite the recession - to be a greater business threat than a weak domestic economy or hacker attacks.

While 70 percent of companies recently said that it was difficult or very difficult for them to find new and adequately qualified employees, the figure in January 2020 was only 65 percent.

Despite a potentially larger number of applicants (due to higher unemployment), the problem has become larger rather than smaller.

In a survey by the accounting firm PwC among the CEOs of international corporations, the topic of skilled labor shortages recently only appeared in fourth place on the list of concerns, behind overregulation, hacker attacks and pandemics.

display

Particularly bitter: The lack of qualified personnel slows down medium-sized companies precisely where they have a lot of catching up to do, in terms of digitization.

“The shortage of skilled workers is the number one obstacle to the digital transformation of medium-sized companies in Germany,” says Fritzi Köhler-Geib, chief economist at KfW.

As an important financier, KfW has deep insights into the structure of the medium-sized economy.

Above all, this slows down digitization that is far-reaching, i.e. that really encompasses the entire company, reports Köhler-Geib.

"Often the companies lack precisely those employees who can, for example, demonstrate the added value of digital tools."

Digital skills in all areas of the company are essential today not only because of competitiveness, but also, for example, to maintain operational reliability.

"It is interesting to see that the fear of hacker attacks is in third place among medium-sized companies," says Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany.

That makes the great dilemma of the new technologies clear.

"Digitization shouldn't be seen as a threat, but as an opportunity," says Brzeski.

At the moment, the industry in particular is planning larger hires, in the service sector it is not quite as pronounced due to the corona.

The shortage of skilled workers will return to be a significant problem for medium-sized businesses in 2021.

The demographic structure of Germany means that companies cannot rely on enough young skilled workers striving for professional life.

As new figures from the Federal Statistical Office show, the number of schoolchildren has stagnated for years.

At vocational schools, where a lot of knowledge is imparted that is sought after in medium-sized companies, the number of students in 2020 even fell by two percent.

All of this with an increasing number of employees reaching retirement age.

Source: WORLD infographic

Immigration can help, but migration has recently decreased rather than increased.

According to estimates by the Federal Statistical Office, only between 180,000 and 240,000 people immigrated last year, compared with 327,000 in 2019. Of course, travel restrictions also play a role here.

But even before Corona, the trend was down.

Fewer people came to Germany, especially from Eastern Europe.

In addition, not all immigrants have the qualifications that medium-sized companies need.

Economists therefore consider it essential that medium-sized companies invest more in the further and advanced training of their own employees - especially when it comes to digitization.

KfW chief economist Köhler-Geib demands that “there must be more initiatives in further and advanced training”: Simply relying on school lessons is not enough.

Otherwise it could take ten to 15 years for the digital knowledge imparted there to reach medium-sized companies.

display

“40 percent of the employees in the company undertake further and further training, but only seven percent do individual further or further training,” she calculates.

She identified the financing of the programs as a problem, but the shortage of staff also plays a role: Small companies in particular often find it difficult to do without staff during ongoing operations.

Source: WORLD infographic

“The economy as a whole, and thus also small and medium-sized enterprises, can only emerge from the shortage of skilled workers if investments are made in education,” explains ING man Brzeski.

Technical professions should be promoted more strongly.

In the end, however, medium-sized companies would not be able to avoid investing more in digitization and automation.

Theoretically, higher wages could attract more skilled workers, but especially in the technical professions the gap between demand and supply is simply too big, says Brzeski: “Higher wages alone will probably not be able to close this gap.

There is simply a lack of suitable skilled workers. ”Since they cannot be“ baked ”overnight, there is hardly any alternative to investing in digital technology.

Job portal

JOBS.WELT.DE

Find your dream job now!

View job offers

There are approaches to this.

A current study by KfW Research shows that a third of small and medium-sized companies expanded their digitization efforts during the pandemic.

At first glance, this suggests a digitization surge in German medium-sized companies.

However, this sudden increase has a dark side:

"The news is only superficially good, because the projects carried out are projects that can be implemented quickly and are effective at short notice," explains Köhler-Geib.

Often long-term and strategically important projects are postponed due to the tight financial situation.

And it is also true: a further third of medium-sized companies in Germany did not carry out any digitization measures at all in 2020.

This shows that digitization in Germany's SMEs is not a sure-fire success even during the corona pandemic.

"Increase attractiveness as an employer for skilled workers"

"At the moment there is little reason to hope that the German economy will catch up with its international competitors in terms of digitization," says the KfW digitization report.

In a ranking of 28 countries, the German economy only ranks 18th with regard to the integration of digital technologies. Ireland and Finland are the front runners, while Romania and Bulgaria come in last.

However, all is not lost for German medium-sized companies.

They have a number of structural strengths that can also play out in competition with the big players.

This includes EY partner Michael Marbler the opportunity to offer their employees flexible, flexible working hours and work locations that enable a better work-life balance.

“In addition, job profiles could be offered that involve taking on responsibility at an early stage, as well as targeted employee development programs that increase the attractiveness as an employer for skilled workers.” In addition, steel effect could bring about more “diversity in the teams”, says Marbler: “That increases the group of applicants and helps to build a strong employer brand. ”In general, the importance of a meaningful corporate mission statement, corporate culture and social and ecological commitment should not be underestimated.

display

Politics can also make a contribution by creating the necessary framework conditions to increase the potential of skilled workers in one's own country through qualification

is even better exploited.

And of course migration could also make a contribution: “Germany as a location competes with other countries for skilled workers.

Bureaucracy and processing times have made it difficult for applicants from abroad to come to Germany in the past. "

The skilled worker immigration law, which came into force a year ago, brings with it the opportunity to bring more qualified personnel to Germany from outside the European Union.

Hopefully it will show how effective the new law is when the corona crisis is over.

It will soon become apparent how qualification and immigration can relieve the strained backbone of the German economy.

"Everything on shares" is the daily stock market shot from the WELT business editorial team.

Every morning from 7 a.m. with the financial journalists Moritz Seyffarth and Holger Zschäpitz.

For stock market experts and beginners.

Subscribe to the podcast on

Spotify

,

Apple Podcast

,

Amazon Music

and

Deezer

.

Or directly via

RSS feed

.