Chinanews client, Beijing, March 15 (Reporter Li Jinlei) China's economy has ushered in a good start.

On March 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic report card for the first two months. The main indicators were quite dazzling. The year-on-year growth rates of consumption, investment, and imports and exports all exceeded 30%.

The macroeconomic figures are very good-looking, but we must keep a clear understanding.

On March 15th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy from January to February 2021.

Photo by Chinanews reporter Li Jinlei

Major economic indicators rebounded sharply in the first two months

　　Data shows that in the first two months, consumption, investment, and imports and exports all rebounded sharply, with year-on-year growth rates exceeding 30%.

　　Among them, in the first two months, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 6973.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%; the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.523.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.0%; the total import and export of goods was 5441.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.2% .

　　From the perspective of exports alone, the growth rate is even more dazzling. The export growth rate in the first two months was 50.1%, and the export growth rate in February was as high as 139.5%.

　　In addition, from January to February, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 35.1% year-on-year; the national service industry production index increased by 31.1% year-on-year.

From the National Bureau of Statistics.

Need to look at high growth rates rationally

　　Although many economic indicators recorded high growth rates in the first two months, we need to take a rational look at this, because this sharp rebound is mainly due to factors such as a low base in the same period in 2020.

　　At the beginning of 2020, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the year-on-year growth rate of major indicators has dropped significantly. The added value of industries above designated size fell by 13.5% from January to February last year, the service industry production index fell by 13%, and fixed asset investment fell by 24.5. %, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 20.5%.

It can be said that due to the substantial decline in the original base, the year-on-year growth rate from January to February this year has been significantly increased.

　　The reporter noticed that the National Bureau of Statistics released a two-year average growth rate this time, trying to eliminate the impact of low base.

　　Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that taking industrial production as an example, for the first time, the two-year average growth rate of the added value of industries above designated size was only 8.1% year-on-year.

Using the same method, the two-year average growth rate is calculated. The service industry production index increased by 6.8% in the two-year average, fixed asset investment increased by 1.7%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.2%. Judging from these data, the overall economy is recovering. in progress.

CPI ups and downs chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

Prices of negative growth for 2 consecutive months

　　From the perspective of people's livelihood indicators, prices have fallen.

Data show that in the first two months, consumer prices nationwide fell by 0.3% year-on-year.

On a monthly basis, national consumer prices in January and February fell by 0.3% and 0.2% year-on-year respectively.

　　In food, affected by the high base in the same period last year, the price of pork fell by 14.9%, an increase of 11.0 percentage points from the previous month; the prices of chicken and duck fell by 8.7% and 2.6%, respectively, and the rates of decline were narrowed; mutton, aquatic products and The price of eggs rose by 7.5%, 5.9% and 4.3%, respectively, and the growth rates all expanded.

　　What is the future trend of pork prices?

Liu Aihua said that from a month-on-month perspective, pork prices in February changed from a 5.6% increase in the previous month to a decrease of 3.1%.

From the perspective of future expectations, with the gradual recovery of live pig production capacity, pork prices are expected to continue to fall.

　　Liu Aihua said that from the perspective of food prices, industrial consumer product prices, service prices, and carryover factors, the annual price is expected to remain within a reasonable and moderate range.

Recruitment fair information map.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Wu Junjie

Employment needs to pay attention to structural contradictions

　　Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood.

Statistics show that from January to February, 1.48 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country.

In January, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.4%.

In February, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year.

　　The employment target for 2021 will add 11 million new jobs in cities and towns across the country.

Liu Aihua pointed out that the number of newly graduated college students this year reached 9.09 million, and the employment pressure of key groups is still relatively high.

At the same time, there are many favorable conditions for maintaining overall employment stability. First, the sustained and stable recovery of the economy will drive the expansion of employment demand; second, the employment stabilization policy will continue to exert force, and third, the service industry will resume development.

Fourth, the potential for flexible employment is relatively large.

　　Liu Aihua reminded that while employment pressure exists, some structural contradictions in the employment market have also appeared recently, mainly manifested in the mismatch of the labor market.

In the survey, some companies reported the difficulty of recruiting, and the difficulty of recruiting some skilled talents and skilled workers is also objective.

This also shows the imbalance in the economic recovery process. On the one hand, there are still employment pressures for some key groups; on the other hand, structural contradictions in the labor market have begun to appear during the recovery process.

Night view of Haixinsha in Guangzhou (data map).

Photo courtesy of Guangzhou Culture, Radio, Film and Tourism Bureau

GDP growth in the first quarter may rebound sharply

　　In the first quarter of 2020, GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year. Is it possible that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year will show a double-digit growth?

Driven by such a low base, how to judge the true level of China's current economic recovery?

　　Liu Aihua said that in terms of specific indicators, last year was a low base of 6.8%, which was reflected in the year-on-year growth rate. In the first quarter, year-on-year growth is likely to occur, or even a sharp rebound.

　　She reminded that although after some technical treatments, from the two-year average, the main indicators are in the process of restorative growth, but there is still an imbalance between industries and fields in the process of restorative. For example, in the consumption and services of some contact and agglomeration industries, it should be said that some indicators have not yet returned to the level before the epidemic, and the imbalance in the recovery is objective.

　　"Regardless of the economic recovery situation, or from the perspective of factor support and policy support, it should be said that China's economy will continue to maintain a state of continuous recovery in 2021. There is a foundation and conditions, and we are confident." Liu Aihua said.

(Finish)